Coronavirus 2020

coronavirus

#559

South Korea has 433 cases now with 2 deaths.
Iran has 28 Cases with 5 deaths.

I know which of those stats sounds more believable to me. Scott Gottlieb the ex FDA head had information on his twitter feed that South Korea had already tested, or were in the process of testing, 20,000 patients. Looks like they had done about 13k roughly earlier today, probably much more now with the second release of information. They release the results in the morning and late afternoon everyday. It looks like they are able to test many thousands of people a day so we’re going to get amazing intel from them even of the mildly affected hopefully.

2 deaths so far from 433 people, and probably we’ll find out that a lot more people have it also over the next week as they test more. The actual data there is looking quite good. A low case fatality rate so far. This is in agreement with some of the data in China that is outside of Hubei. Zhejiang has 1,205 cases, 718 recovered and just 1 death so far.

From the 5 deaths already I’d say Iran has at least 500 cases minimum.

It could well be that with the proper preparation and with the proper quarantining that health services can really get a handle on this and the CFR could be below 1% (perhaps well below). Shanghai also has a very low number of cases and I think that is because of a really strong quarantine and lack of migrant workers coming to Shanghai. It’s more a services city.


#560

Chinese authorities say a 70-year-old man in China’s Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms for 27 days


#561

There are so many other potential explanations for how he developed symptoms after 27 days that the 27 incubation period seems preposterous. He could easily have come into contact with another person, it could have been airborne… most likely it could have been fomites on anything that his sister touched, given that we know that viruses can last on surfaces easily for 28 days. Occam’s razor would suggest that a 27 day incubation period should be the last cause selected, IMO.


#562

They’re taking it seriously in Italy. There are no football matches taking place this weekend.


#563

apparently Iran is one big mess now.


#564

Well imagine if the first serious outbreak of COVID 19 in Ireland was in somewhere like Tuam or Carlow and their outlying villages and no-one could quite workout who the vector was. Thats the situation in Lombardy this weekend. I cannot think of a more unlikely place than that part of the province of Pavia. Much closer in to Milan would make a bit more sense. But not out there. All the other cases look slightly more probable but still mostly very odd.

It looks like we have the first serious full candidate population test in South Korea and the results are not good. All other countries, with the possible exception of Singapore dont have full candidate tests. In fact most countries only have clinical tests with very limited use of RT-PCR to confirm it actually is COVID-19. The accuracy rate for RT-PCR seems to be about 90% when done carefully but the non RT-PCR tests seem to have an accuracy rate of between 20% and 60%. With the best accuracy rate with the acute cases with the most pronounced symptoms.

When you look at whats involved in doing an accurate RT-PCR test to completion I can imagine the false negative rate climbing when having to deal with an overwhelming number of samples in a very short period of time. This is not a simple stick a sample in a vial and press a button and out pops a result test. Hence all the false negative numbers we have been hearing.

This is what is involved in doing a single successful RT-PCR test and there are many points of failure in the process. Starting with the quality of the patient sample. Too early in the infection and probably not enough genetic material to make a useful extraction from the sample.

This does not look like a process that can be easily scaled up by several orders of magnitude at very short notice. MId term probably but I think we may have passed containment phase are now into management phase it might be already too late.


The Irish Republic as you knew it, has been suspended
#565

I was actually posting this before but I think my connection is bad and it didn’t load. It’s well worth watching, just 11 minutes. It’s his most fascinating one yet in my opinion. Sounds as if there are very very likely 500+ or even 1000+ cases in Iran right now, if they could do the proper tests.
His contact is saying 750 suspected cases but also it seems like there are multiple towns with it.
What I don’t get, is why has Iran exploded like that. The deaths are a clear give away in my opinion of the real numbers. They are not capturing most people when we see the deaths start to spike.

The authorities seem to be saying 5 - 13 deaths but even his contacts are saying there are many more. It must have been circulating widely in Iran for quite a while now. I don’t get why this is though? Other countries are visited far more by Chinese tourists. There’s something a bit weird going on that Iran is spiking on deaths like that more than Japan or South Korea who get far more tourists. And, Iran is not supposed to be terrible on Healthcare apparently. Maybe they have some direct business ties to Wuhan. Could be for oil powering the factories there or something.


#566

Here is some background as to why the Chinese government are desperate to have the epidemic officially start winding down in the next week or two.

"Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, can be regarded as the economic think tank of the Communist Party of China. He said at a seminar that if the epidemic is controlled in January, the main economic impact is consumption, with emphasis on catering, accommodation, entertainment, tourism, and transportation. Transport and other services.

If it is controlled in February, the impact will be extended to the physical industry, which involves industry, construction, and agriculture; if it is extended to March, the impact will be long-term productivity, and a large number of companies will not be able to fulfil their contracts, and will not be able to pay wages or cash. If you can’t support it, you will go bankrupt. At this time, you are hurting.

He therefore suggested that the authorities should strive to contain the epidemic by the end of February. In fact, we have seen that the government has begun to launch a public opinion offensive to control the epidemic at the end of February. What big data statistics, official notification data, expert predictions, etc. have come."

Cannot find any primary or secondary sources in English. Quote is from this article.

Usual caveats apply to the source, although so far it has been reasonable accurate. Indirectly referred to here.

China went into the crisis with its economy already pretty shaky especially the SOE’s. The current situation is increasing reminding me of 1989 in Japan. In the two decades before they could not put a foot wrong and during the 1980’s Japan looked unstoppable. MITI was all powerful. Then 1989 happened and the bubble burst and we have now had three “Lost Decades” since then.

I think we have have just witnessed Peak China. Just like we had Peak Japan in 1989.


#567

The are a few things that make this virus a longer term problem for China and everyone else.
Many asymptomatic carriers
Unreliable testing
Modern/ globalised travel patterns
Every one is looking at shorter term economic impacts of shutdowns and quarentines
Longer than 14 day incubation periods in some people.
Potential to run rife in poorer nations

Maybe there might be a vaccine next year as I don’t see it disappearing.
For now those over 65, Smokers and those with respiratory disease or diabetes are in the firing line.


#568

Article about transmission… current thinking is that the virus is primarily spread by droplets of breath, hence most people are catching it within families or from their close patient contact as medical workers. But it’s clearly very contagious given some of the stories we hear like the South Korean religious woman ? The current thinking is that the virus is not itself ‘independently’ airborne wandering and being contracted. So social distancing is the key thing ? It’s really hard to see how to have society functioning normally in such times.

The Chinese have delayed and lied but they have bought us some time with their draconian measures. But what good have we done with that time ?

In terms of tips, I have found this oximeter as useful for monitoring the family’s health
https://m.argos.ie/static/Product/partNumber/5152513/Trail/searchtext>Oximeter.htm

My HR is 78 and oxygen saturation is 97% now. If your oxygen % is in the low 90s that would mean a trip to hospital. And when I had a sudden pneumonia my HR was over 100 - tachycardia.


#569

JSP make masks for DIY/Construction sectors and are quite a popular brand across the UK/Ireland.

2 of their factories have been requisitioned by the Chinese Government, which is understandable under the circumstances.


#570

Just had a thought there, if the virus really did take a hold, you might not get a U.S. Presidential election happening in November. That would probably be worst case scenario health-wise, but they’d likely go to war footing and keep the same President.


#571

I wonder if bio lab in Wuhan is still active…

Chemitrails? fuck it we will spray you in your face baby:

once a week home exit permit is cancelled:

I can’t imagine any of it happening in any other place in the world…


#572

Over 100 cases now in Italy and 2 dead. The locations of the deaths are very far apart. I suspect there must be a lot more people infected.

One of the deceased is from Padua and the others in his family are also infected. Padua is not too far from Venice which has about 20,000 visitors a day in February.


#573

I had a very bad flu back in november.
Im mid-40s and fairly fit, dont smoke and work alone.

Dont know how I got it but it hit me for six - I was literally out for 6 weeks. Just couldnt shake it.
Coughed so hard at one point I broke a rib (hence the 6 week stint).
Very hard on my lungs. Noticably so.

If I’d heard of Coronavirus then I’d have sworn that was it.

Was told by friend that a work colleague or hers was ‘laid out’ with a flu and was in such a state that a nurse was visiting her daily. That was back in Nov/dec in UK.


#574

The Prez Election in November will not be a affected by any possible epidemic due to postal voting, absentee ballots, etc. Already 60% plus rates in some state / federal elections and some city/county elections are now postal only.

It the COVID-19 is still a really big deal in November it will be a a postal only election in some / most states. But the elections in November will happen and at the moment it looks like it will be a rerun of 1984/1972. The candidate who the media really hates will win. Possibly even by a landslide again. If the Bernie Bros go rogue and its a three way. Now that would be fun. Even Cal and Mass might be in play. Then it would be a 1912 election. But the other way around.


#575

The initial reporting around Italy neglected to mention that it’s not a traceable case :frowning: I was wrong about the football. I checked the liveScore app for some results and saw nearly all the matches went ahead :icon_eek: It looks like nothing is being done to prevent this until it hits a Country and because of the delay in showing symptoms whilst also shedding virus, it means that it’s infected a lot of people before actions are taken.

That PT-PCR testing has a lot of parts that have to be done right in order to get it correct, collecting and storing samples could be problematic. The write up of that testing procedure is very good BTW. I never did chemistry or biology but even I could make some sense out of it.


#576

Basically for most people COVID-19 is just a very bad flu. Those who show symptoms. It only when it turns into viral pneumonia and you have a respiratory/pulmonary precondition, or are just unlucky, that it become life threatening. In most cases when it becomes ARDS and they have to stick you on ventilators in the ICU.

The number so far seem to look like this.

The final infection rate for COVID-19 in the general population will eventually reach 60%. Its just a matter of whether the first half of the infections happen in 3 month or 18/24 month. If compressed into 3 months then its a very big problem as health services are overwhelmed. More than half of the final death toll in a serious epidemic are not those with the diseases but those who die from other preventable conditions that do not receive adequate medical treatment because of lack of available medical resources due to huge load of epidemic patients.

So the purpose of the quarantine by this stage is to greatly slow the spread of COVID not to stop it. That opportunity was lost, to stop it, once the virus escaped into the Wet Meat Market and the authorities tried to cover it up. So the best hope now is to spread out the infection period in the rest of the world from a few months to a few years. Thats all that can be done now.

So 60% of the population in the next few years. Based on initial reports at least half of those infected seem to by asymptomatic. No strong physical symptoms. Of those who show strong symptoms about 80% will have something like you had. A very nasty flu. This is not a head cold. If its anything like swine flu you will know you have it and you will not forget it afterwards.

The rest, the 20%, who have more serious symptoms seem to be overwhelmingly older, more male, and with prior conditions. Those with the serious per-conditions are those who tend to end up as the 5% or so who need serious medical treatment when it turns into viral pneumonia. The mortality rate is about 50% for those cases when it turns into ARDS. Which is where you get the (current) 2% mortality rate.

So in the next year or two it looks like 50/50 you might get infected with COVID-19. Another 50/50 it might show symptoms and turn into a very bad flu. If no preconditions or not too old thats about as far as it seems to go in most case. Old or preconditions and then its gets hairy if it turns into viral pneumonia.

So stock up on hand sanitizers (isopropanol ones) wash your hands and clean hard surfaces like you have a really bad case of OCD. Dont touch your face and if you have to be in crowed places maybe a N95 mask might help. That should stack the odds in your favor quite a bit.


#577

Just checked those football matches myself from this weekend. Massive games in the North of Italy in all the regions affected, with teams such as Juventus, Milan, Napoli, Lazio, some playing right now.

Keeping in mind what JMC is saying above, I actually think that a lot of governments realise that there is no stopping this and they are letting it come into the country, then going on lock down which will give the medical services time to deal with the first load of people infected, and then they’ll have some immunity in the community. Then they’ll end any lockdowns and the process will begin again.


#578

Once there are suspected cases in Dublin, the A/E departments will be overwhelmed with those with any hint of a cough. Then, the SHTF…