Coronavirus 2020


#2185

No its not. Its a form of control with no basis in anything approaching evidence. The clusters areand a result of meeting other people in confined spaces predominantly and physical contact with other people, shaking hands etc. What clusters are a result of going for a walk. Absolute nonsense. No one on the diamond princess went more than 2km.


#2186

The problem is that large numbers of people were driving in their cars to go to the popular places to exercise and creating crowds there. Beaches and mountains in particular.


#2187

Yes. Of course. And this is not a very difficult concept to grasp at all out of the totality of important issues that require communication and understanding. Vis, you have a higher concentration of infections in somewhere like north Dublin or anywhere else with higher concentration. Then that gets carried around the country in peoples’ cars. (No doubt the crowds gathering together at certain points is an exacerbating factor). So you need to try and inhibit the virus’s diffusion. That is the intent of the 2km limits, not self protection etc.

You know I think the above example demonstrates a little about what the PR around state level communications is up against. Many people just do not have the capacity to step outside themselves and see things from a perspective removed from themselves. To take the above example, “There is no magical formula that says if you go 2.1 km you’ll get covid”. Of course what they have highest in mind is their own inconvenience and self-interest. That’s fair enough. - It is an important question to ask though, can you realistically expect this mindset to step outside themselves and see things from the perspective of serving the interest of the whole public, even if that means the relegating of their own self-interest?

I think too, following what I think is a critical tangent, that is why in these type of cataclysmic events, we have to be extra on our guard against the kind of irrationalistic philosophies, anti-“globalist” demagogy, sham unorthodox economic views, sham calls for rebellion against the existing “regime”, and so on and on, that we see fringe political movements, like O’Doherty’s and Waters’, and increasing others as we regularly witness even on here, promoting.

For we know historically that it was when economic and political systems have been threatened by complete paralysis, when fear has gripped the people, that that has been the moment extremist, hitherto fringe, political groups, usually headed up by some somewhat charismatic leader promising a great leap into an exalted future, communicating with slogans and stereotypes, claiming “TRUTH” etc. Vis, They offered the rationales that people wanted to hear to serve their own self-interest in the short-term. They offered simple answers that seemed to make sense, that seemed to offer an easy way out for people who were suffering, at whatever ultimate price.

I wonder will it be this type of thing again that will be our eventual culminating downfall.


#2188

Wow just wow, ROC is the air thin that high up on your pedestal?
So you agree with BuyinIn09 but felt it necessary to pontificate further to show how smart your thinking is compared to filthy unwashed like the rest of us?


#2189

I think there is a rise and rise of a certain irrationality and sentiment as say can be seen in all the increasing “conspiracist” threads about Covid on this forum, and yes I do think that that warrants an adequate, strongly expressed disdain and ridicule the better to highlight the heart and soul of it, not that I engaged in much of it above. And it is the thinking, the mindset that is filthy and unwashed, not the person btw. And I believe they can do better, they can think better. And their not doing so threatens us all, you know.


#2190

Of course what they have highest in mind is their own inconvenience and self-interest.

Self-interest indeed

Your preening is all very interesting but there is no footpath on our busy road. I go for a walk where it is safer. I go for a walk in an area where there is virtually no one around.

The 2km muppetty will eventually dissolve as it slowly dawns on everyone we will have to live with Covid for the next 1-2 years. The government PR in France/Italy, for example, confined you to 100m. I guess PR is just that. There is no way to eliminate Covid without total lockdown and sealed borders.

There is an economic depression slowly gathering place no matter what measures are taken. We can take measures which help easy the economic disaster for those who live paycheck to paycheck. The economic collapse will hit those on the margins most as it did the last time. Its all well and good worrying about Covid when you are well off enough to ride it out.


#2191

Well done lads. Well done.


#2192

The hospitals are nearly empty, what do you want them to do, play cards and make TikToks while the HSE and NPHET further accelerate our descent into economic oblivion? This has happened internationally too, I’ve read at least 3 articles about nurses having shifts cut. Lucky enough we were able to suspend the growth of tumours for the duration of the pandemic though.


#2193

Yes, my daughter is a specialist healthcare worker in a large Dublin hospital. She’s working less than half time - average two or three days a week for the last month or so. She’s hardly any patients and ends up doing paperwork, catching up on email etc.

We have the complete opposite of an overburdened health service…


#2194

This is an interesting mixture of seeking to speak authoritatively while having nothing authoritative to say. You really sum up Ireland’s clueless leadership for the last 20 years. Epidemiology is not Physics. Theres no evidence that people going for a walk in the mountains spread any disease. Fresh air, sunshine, Vitamin D all good. So you have to revert to “everybody knows”.

The below is what sense looks like.


#2195
Can I go outside for a run, or to sit in a park?

Please do! Experts highly encourage spending time outside in open spaces. Just avoid groups and maintain a 6-foot distance from others. Consider wiping down benches or items that other people may have touched before you.

The experts: Many thanks to the experts who helped answer these questions. They are:

  • Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology at Harvard’s T. H. Chan School of Public Health
  • Keri Althoff, associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University
  • Elizabeth Stuart, associate dean and professor of mental health at Johns Hopkins’ Bloomberg School of Public Health
  • Nancy Kass, deputy director for public health in the Johns Hopkins’ Berman Institute of Bioethics
  • Steve Silvestro, a pediatrician in Bethesda, Maryland

No mention of 2km


#2196

Your personal anecdote tallies with other anecdotes posted in this thread about 30 days ago, which starting April 3rd also demonstrating this trend is not unique to Ireland.


#2197

Sweden - Deaths per 1million - 263 or 0.00263%
Ireland - Deaths per 1million - 250 or 0.00263%

On balance the general approach sweden has taken so far is not working out as a complete disaster althought they will still take a hard hit economically

In sweden - Mobility in public spaces is up 80% due to covid
Retail down 13%

In Ireland - Mobility in public spaces is down 30% due to covid
Retail down 87%


#2198

‘Under control’: Denmark says coronavirus spread ‘hasn’t accelerated’ since reopening began

Denmark said on Thursday the spread of Covid-19 has not accelerated since its gradual loosening of restrictions began in mid-April. The first country outside Asia to ease its coronavirus lockdown, Denmark began reopening day care centers and schools for children in first to fifth grades two weeks ago followed by hairdressers and other small businesses on April 20, after seeing the number of infections and deaths decline.

“There are no signs that the Covid-19 epidemic is accelerating,” said the State Serum Institute, which is responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases. The ‘R rate,’ which shows the average number of infections one person with the virus causes, has increased slightly in the past two weeks but remains below 1.0, it said.

Denmark, which was one of the first in Europe to shut down, had 452 Covid-19-related deaths as of Thursday, while the number of hospitalizations has fallen steadily during April, Reuters said.

https://www.rt.com/newsline/487461-denmark-control-gradual-reopening/


#2199

This aligns with the observation by Swedens state epidemeologist - full lockdown has no effect - the outcome is the same and before anyone starts yelling about the UK, they had no lockdown until it was too late.


#2200

I really don’t see how they can release the lock-down yet. E.g.

Whereas this is how we are looking here in Ireland (as per 28th April):

image

Averaging ~365 the last two days, but need the 7 days to see where we’re really at. And granted the new cases on 23rd April is skewing the last point on this chart. But still. As they say, “We’re not there yet”…


#2201

In other news, my fire extinguisher has been unused this whole time.


#2202

Compare like with like.

E.g. Latitude, air pollution, social norms, and so on.

And compare Ireland to our closest neighbour.

It’s pretty clear by now how the countries who did better succeeded:

image


#2203

If you look at the Euromomo graph there was an uptick in Ireland’s z-score the last week which I think is not good. It’s still about average for this time of year. Everywhere else including England recorded a dip last week.


#2204

I dont understand this.

The point of the lockdown was not to eradicate the virus, which lets face it, can only realistically be done by shutting borders and allowing nobody in or out of the country.

The point was to “flatten the curve” and avoid the type of scenes that were witnessed in ICUs in Lombardy.

This has been achieved.

We also know more now than we did two months ago.

To apply the method that you yourself have been calling for ie to step back from the type of rigid technocratic scientism that extracts absolute truths from figures plotted along lines on charts, we can now discern that the virus is most virulent when exposed within enclosed environments. Over half of all deaths in Ireland have occurred in such environments in nursing/care homes.

Therefore, without speaking in absolutes, i would suggest we can intuit that adhering to social distancing would allow us to begin a phased return to some semblance of normality in those areas of life that can accomodate such behaviour. Those that cannot accomodate such behaviour will remain excluded for the moment.

The alternative is to risk exacerbating (most likely unnecessarily) the attendant issues that are in the process of attaching themselves to this health crisis ie probems associated with isolation, mental health, non covid related health issues as well as the prospect of economic collapse, poverty and possibly hunger etc.

So apply your own standards. Accept that there has been some degree of success thus far and adapt your approach accordingly. That was the point of the whole thing from the start. Likewise, if things deteriorate again later, perhaps we will need to go into reverse and reassess accordingly. The alternative is to cower in fear behind closed doors indefinitely while our society disintegrates. Our ancestors lived through a lot worse and we’re still here. Time to stand up and be counted.