What load of self righteous shite. Must be cabin fever. Unsurprising in the circumstances. The whole country has gone insane.
Here is a a starting point. Only four countries have published mathematically meaningful and accurate statistics on the current SARs CoV 2 pandemic. Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong. With Germany almost there. All other countries statistics are various degrees of garbage. Of little or no statistical value.
Do you know why? Because those 4 countries are the only countries who carefully record and tabulate actual genuine COVID-19 deaths. People who actually die from acute pneumonia with novel pathogen. Which in most cases is ARDS.
If a patient does not have clinical severe viral pneumonia then they dont have COVID. The SAR bit in SARs CoV 2 is Sever Acute Respiratory. You know, a severe infection in the lower respiratory system. And given that the daily death rate from non-novel pathogen pneumonia account for almost half of all deaths of old people from respiratory illness (10% of deaths) we have the current situation where countries like Italy and Ireland are lumping in everyone who test positive, looks like they might test positive, or have some of respiratory condition as COVID deaths with out any proper clinical diagnosis the numbers claims as COVID deaths are quite simply untrue.
Look at the ICU deaths numbers published for Ireland. Funny how the majority of claimed deaths so far seem to have by-passed the ARDS stage. Unlike what happened in Taiwan and South Korea where very few died of COVID without going through the ARDS stage. It ARDS that makes the infection severe, and usually fatal with older people.
The actual number of people in Ireland who have died so far from a severe viral pneumonia caused by a serious SARs CoV 2 infection, and not from other causes, is unlikely to be more than 200 so far. Based on the very vague official details being published.
All models used to justify the lockdowns are based on an initial estimate of the R0 that has not been supported by the most accurate and complete datasets we have so far from South Korea and Taiwan. The actual R0 is around 1.6. Not the 3 to 4 used by the more speculative models.
With a R0 of 1.6 lockdown have zero effect on eventual excess mortality among high risk group. Nada. Zinch. None. That is the mathematics. The main purveyor of the R0 of around 4 at the moment is the WHO. Whose credibility is zero after the way they have defended the utterly fraudulent epidemiological statistical data from China.
Let me repeat that. The justification for the continued shutdown of the Irish economy are the completely fraudulent statistics of the WHO. You cannot have the lockdown reducing the R0 from 4 to under one if it was never 4 in the first place.
Some history. The first published estimate of R0 was 2.5 used in the HK Univ Med epistemological model on Jan 23’rd based on what they had observed on the ground in Wuhan over the previous few days. This estimate was based on a reasonable set of assumptions given the very high number of older people who were dying. Influenza type diseases following pretty much the same age / mortality curve. So a much higher older death rate make it look like a R0 at least twice of seasonal flu.
What later transpired is that younger people had very strong cross immunity and older people had weak cross immunity so older people died disproportionately. Once the first large dataset came in from South Korea and Taiwan the R0 was adjusted down to 1.6. In the meantime modelers in US and Europe took the fraudulent official data sets from China and extrapolated a R0 of 3 or 4. And then started making wildly inaccurate predictions based on these models. If there was not strong cross immunity over most age groups these predictions might have been more accurate. If the official Chinese government epidemiological statistics had not been fraudulent these predictions might have been more accurate. But they were n’t. And are n’t. Thiose models are wrong because the key variable are wrong. Far to high,
Lockdowns do not work as advertised if the R0 is pretty low. Lockdowns do not work if there are no pharmaceutical treatments that over time will have a material impact on the mortality rates of the high risk groups.
Flattening the curve is pointless if the R0 is low and there are no pharmaceutical treatments available for high risk group. There was almost zero uptake of the field hospitals and overflow hospitals where they were created. All counties that had health systems that collapsed under stress had socialized systems. Mixed systems had no need to flatten curve as they had surge capacity. So no need for lockdown.
Vaccines will not have any material impact on the mortality rates of high risk group. In fact high risk group have much higher risk of adverse effect from novel vaccines. None of the novel pharmaceutical treatments will material effect survival rates in high risk group. A comprehensive vaccination programme will have little effect on the low mortality rates of low risk group. But will have a measurable increase due to adverse reactions.
Lockdowns do increase mortality rates in all population groups, high risk and low risk due to deferred medical treatment. When the final excess mortality rates are tabulated in a few years it is a given that the excess deaths due t o the massive disruption caused by the lockdown will be greater than any potential (if even measurable) decrease in the mortality rates due to actual SARs Cov 2 infections due to the temporary halt in the community spread of SARs CoV 2 until it reaches a population infection rate of around 60%.
The simple fact is the Irish government is currently consumed by a media driven mass hysteria making decisions that are so mind boggling stupid as to make the bailing out of Anglo in 2008 look like an act of the highest level of considered statesmanship. Rather than the covering up of a massive money laundering scheme.