Coronavirus 2020


#2225

Putting this but feel free to move if appropriate.

Isn’t the right to peaceful protest inshrined in our constitution? Has it been suspended?


#2226

From the constitution:
“Provision may be made by law to prevent or control meetings which are determined in accordance with law to be calculated to cause a breach of the peace or to be a danger or nuisance to the general public.”

Nothing has been suspended.


#2227

#2228

So why did S.Korea, Germany, Taiwan, Singapore go into lockdown? And why are they having more success in controlling the virus, lower death rates etc? I’m sure you’re aware that the R0 is the basis of an exponential increase and 1.6 is quite a big number in an exponential series (if you have doubts about how this all works - Auntie Angela will explain it for you - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22SQVZ4CeXA).


#2229

Interesting statement fro euromomo:

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, information on its mortality impact is of major concern. The EuroMOMO network hub receives many questions about the weekly mortality data we present, as well as requests to share the underlying national data. While the network fully supports data sharing, the network hub is not mandated by the participating countries to release any national data. If you are interested in accessing national data, please approach countries individually.

So who is not interested in release of raw data?
Bloody agendas everywhere. Open data is key for good of the society, yet politicians and ngo’s will try to hide stuff from us almost always. Closed source software, hidden or manipulated data sets, secretly made questionable decisions… our world is so damn hostile!

btw… There was interesting piece in polish mainstream newspaper Rzeczpospolita on how East Europe (or rather central) avoided the catastrophe by not listening to extremely wrong advice from Brussels to keep borders open. There was an interesting rhetorical question asked at the end on WHO GAVE THE ADVICE?

So far, Central European countries have been immeasurably more successful in fighting the pandemic than the countries located more west and south. While at the end of April in Spain there were at least 517 deaths per million inhabitants due to a pandemic, in Italy 453, in France 353 and in Great Britain 325 in Poland 16, in Slovakia 4, in the Czech Republic 21 and in Austria 65.

According to Czypionka, the key element of this success was the rapid and radical response of the Central European governments to the pandemic, which the Italian, French and British authorities did not manage.

One month after the criticism of Von der Leyen, it is still unclear who specifically advised the EU in such institutions and whether this person will be held accountable in any way.

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=pl&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rp.pl%2FKoronawirus-SARS-CoV-2%2F200509936-Epidemia-Bruksela-mogla-doprowadzic-w-Polsce-do-tragedii.html

They start to reopen shops here in Poland, yet health minister is open about the virus will be around for months so we need to be careful. You need to wear some sort of mouth/nose cover while in public. My local community is giving the reusable masks if you need them. It’s annoying to wear to be honest, but from what i saw locally only 1/20 people not stick to the rules…

Masks were behind lower R0 in Asia compared to EU, many people wear them there outside of pandemic…

Sweden is really interesting case, they definitely had a lot of deaths compared to others around, but COVID is not gone yet! 2020/21 flu season will be extremely different from others we know. Who was right is not clear yet.
Masks, distancing, testing - its important for everybody now.


#2230

Leo we need 2 more weeks Varadkar… app behind schedule?

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Last week, Apple CEO Tim Cook told EU Commissioner Thierry Breton that the API would be arriving shortly, and this version is indeed now available — albeit to a specific and limited group that includes select developers working on behalf of public health authorities globally, according to the companies. This is a test release that’s intended to provide the opportunity for development and feedback in advance of the API’s public release in mid-May, at which time developers will be able to use the software feature on devices with publicly available apps released through the iOS and Google software stores, respectively.

https://techcrunch.com/2020/04/29/apple-and-google-release-first-seed-of-covid-19-exposure-notification-api-for-contact-tracing-app-developers/

More info here also:

Mar 30th

Voluntary coronavirus tracking app planned for Ireland

Published Monday, March 30, 2020

Ireland’s Health Service Executive (HSE) said it hopes it can get the app up and running within 10 days, roughly around the same time that infection rates are expected to peak in the country.

“This is a cross-government effort in relation to a very important piece of technology in fighting Covid-19,” said Paul Connors, HSE head of communications.

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2020/03/irish-government-to-release-voluntary-coronavirus-tracking-app/

2-more-weeks


#2231

Interesting. Seems to contrast with the ‘most would die within a year’ narrative.

The numbers dying outside of ICU in the big UK study & the fact that 1/3rd of UK hospital admitted patients died (so far) is pretty worrying


#2232

Britain turning on Boris


#2233

#2234

#2235

It looks like half of over 70 year old men who go to a UK hospital with Covid die ? FFS


#2236

First non-clinical paper in English (I’ve found) on the Taiwanese SARs CoV 2 outbreak. Tracing the outbreak clusters…

Clinical attack rate shows R0 around middle of 1.5 to 2.0 range. Most infections in sustained close contact environments. Medical or home. Almost no spread in casual contact environments. Out in public. Most close contact environment secondary infections before initial infection person becomes symptomatic. Most of the few casual contact infection spread due to contact with symptomatic carrier.

So not that different from H1N1/09. Except for cross immunity demographics and hence mortality demographics. COVID mainly kills Baby Boomers, Swine Flu did not.

And here is a paper discussing why R0 is a terrible proxy when making public health policy decisions.

Even worse when you use a R0 value that is not only wrong but is mainly based on fraudulent bad faith statistics.

So again, the country was not locked down for Swine Flu in 2009, or Hong Kong Flu in 1968, so why is the country still under lockdown for a disease that turns out to be little different from either of those pandemics?


#2237

So HK flu in 68/69 killed approx 100k in US. Recent NY antibody tests (yeah, yeah, accuracy etc) point to a mortality rate of .8%. That would, assuming say 60% of US pop contracting it, give an overall nr of deaths of 1.5M approx. So huge difference, no?


#2238

And yet the summary includes the following paragraph :

In isolation, R 0 is a suboptimal gauge of infectious disease dynamics across populations; other disease parameters may provide more useful information. Nonetheless, estimation of R 0 for a particular population is useful for understanding transmission in the study population. Considered in the context of other epidemiologically important parameters, the value of R 0 may lie in better understanding an outbreak and in preparing a public health response.

I’m not sure how you manage to move from “In isolation,… suboptimal” to “not only wrong but … mainly based on fraudulent bad faith statistics”?


#2239

JMC
from your JAMA paper

Meaning High transmissibility of COVID-19 before and immediately after symptom onset suggests that finding and isolating symptomatic patients alone may not suffice to interrupt transmission, and that more generalized measures might be required, such as social distancing

I don’t know how that supports your conclusions


#2240

We should do the same ASAP


#2241

A Swedish bar is very different to an irish bar. There are clearly a number of measures that could easily be done without much impact but our gov are not listening. They are only going to listen to nepht and VIs and end up with a mess of a plan. Still nothing agreed with the Northerners or proper airport quarantine.


#2242

If the testing times are reduced there could be an earlier release of restrictions


#2243

It’s kinda funny…you wonder do these Health boffins actually believe what they preach…


#2244

What Bishop is this I don’t recognise the name? :ninja: