Coronavirus 2020




I like how he smiles after:
“Whenever it comes from the lab or nature sources, needs further…confirmation” :smiley:



The Health Service Executive will spend up to €1bn on personal protective equipment this year, with similar amounts to be spent on testing and contact tracing as the country begins to move out of the pandemic.

Scared yet?

…Speaking today at a weekly press briefing, HSE chief executive Paul Reid said PPE would cost €1bn per year, and there would be a “similar very significant cost” to establish a testing and contract tracing model for the country.

So we’ve hardly started and only a few lines down and what, we’re at €2 Bn per year? :thinking:

He said: “Our projections are that those costs will be likely over a billion in a year.

“The cost of not investing in these are much higher in terms of the cost for society of not dropping our restrictions.”

“…Sure sure anything you say boss, let’s make it €3/4Bn, minimum, is it a deal? Can we go out and play now?”

Archived link:


More from the HSE talking head.

Health chief plays down role of contact-tracing app in easing lockdown measures

The head of the health service has said the contact-tracing app will not play a major role in the country’s strategy to emerge from lockdown.

Health Minister Simon Harris said Covid Tracker Ireland App being developed by the Health Service Executive (HSE) will only work if there is maximum public buy-in.

Archived link:

So then why bother. It’s a small place. Everyone knows everyone. Let’s save a few quid, meanwhile…

No App? Do not pass GO, GO direclty to JAIL.

A city in India is ordering all of its residents to download the government’s controversial COVID-19 contact tracing app or face jail time

Read more here:

Archived link:


Most of the projections show limited benefit for economy. If all countries adapted the same path there is likely to be more benefit i would have thought.


From the FT article:

But owner Micke Englund said that while he was happy his shop was not closed, his business had still been hit hard by Covid-19. “When people became aware of coronavirus around March 12, we lost almost overnight 30 per cent. It’s OK. For a couple of months, it will work. But after that it will be very, very tough,” he said.

30% loss vs 100% loss + the hand out.

I know which odds I would prefer, but clearly they are not in this together with the rest of the colonies.

…But economists argue that Sweden is unlikely in the long term to escape the severe economic pain of the rest of Europe. The European Commission forecasts that Sweden’s GDP will fall by 6.1 per cent this year.

'Cause we’ll drag them down. Such nice neighbours.

But Mr Oxley stressed that Sweden was still dependent on demand and supply chains in other countries. “There’s only a limited amount of upside to being contrary when the rest of the world is doing the opposite,” he added.

Back at Mickes record shop, Mr Englund said that many had compared Sweden’s high death toll unfavourably with neighbouring Denmark, Norway and Finland, but that it came out well compared with the UK, France or Italy.

“When they open up the countries again, they will start from square one. We won’t. But no one knows if our strategy was good, very good, or a disaster. Maybe we will know in a year’s time,” he added.

Start with a two thirds full tank Vs An empty tank and the hand out.

I know which odds I would prefer.


Model-man’s model finally getting peer-reviewed.

Transpires it is a random number generator.

The unemployment figures are not random, though.

Worth noting that contrary to his advice to Government, and to the Public on the BBC, he practised herd-immunity in his personal life.

He is quoted as saying that he could Covid his neighbour’s wife after 12 days quarantine because he believed himself ‘to be immune’.


It is the duty of everyone who releases code to document it – within the codebase or outside (or a combination of the two). Greater minds than Neil Ferguson (with all due respect) have a tough enough time navigating a large code base, and especially where you have collaborators, it is not unusual to need a second or two to remember what a particular function is doing or what the arguments should be like. Or, to put it more bluntly: for thirteen years, taxpayer funding from the MRC went to Ferguson and his team, and all it produced was code that violated one of the most fundamental precepts of good software development – intelligibility .

There is wide support for a science-driven response to COVID-19, but very little scrutiny of the science behind many of the predictions that informed early public health measures. Hopefully, a Royal Commission with subpoena powers will have the opportunity to review in detail whether Ferguson intentionally hid the model from HM Government the way he hid it from the rest of the world or whether the government’s experts just did not understand how to scrutinise or assess a model – or, the worst case scenario: they saw the model and still let it inform what might have been the greatest single decision HM Government has made since 1939, without looking for alternatives (there are many other modelling approaches, and many developers who have written better code).


Interesting headline from 2015: 7,000 more people than the usual number of deaths in England and Wales in just a two week period! A higher death rate (if sustained) over a longer period than the current deaths from/with Covid? Don’t remember any major fuss about it.

In the two weeks ending on 23 January, 28,000 people died, the Office for National Statistics figures show.

Over the previous five years, the average number of deaths for the same period stood at about 21,000.

Archived link:


There is a lot wrong with Britains response. The tory papers will have sone fun with ferguson but maybe they need to look at the mess of a reponse in general. If anything the model underestimated the death toll under lockdown. The main rival model had 50% of the population infected back in march.
Its a case of which model is less wrong.

The UK still appear hopelessly behind in testing and cant even count their dead. Stay ALERT to the real story.




Unfortunately the euromomo site doesn’t go back to 2015 for Britain. However it’s clear from the graph’s that something bad has happened in England. In week 15 they were +43 standard deviations from the mean and that was with a lock down and very low penetration rate for the virus. This is far from normal.


Das Bild thinks the cure was worse than the disease.


You’d think that by now the WHO would have displayed some leadership by defining global criteria for statistics, even just for separating ‘with’ and ‘from’ covid. The real threat might become more apparent then. How can you reconcile a CFR of 16% in Belgium, 4.4% in Germany and 2.7% in Norway?


Bild (or Bild-Zeitung , literally Picture ; [ˈbɪlt]) is a German tabloid newspaper published by Axel Springer SE. The paper is published from Monday to Saturday; on Sundays, its sister paper Bild am Sonntag (" Bild on Sunday ") is published instead, which has a different style and its own editors. Bild is tabloid in style but broadsheet in size. It is the best-selling European newspaper and has the sixteenth-largest circulation worldwide.[3] Bild has been described as “notorious for its mix of gossip, inflammatory language, and sensationalism” and as having a huge influence on German politicians.[4] Its nearest English-language stylistic and journalistic equivalent is often considered to be the British national newspaper The Sun , the second highest selling European tabloid newspaper, with which it shares a degree of rivalry.[5][6][7]


Face mask lvl Murica:


This is from the Office of National Statistics in England and Wales. The number of people who have died in the last 6 weeks is well outside the average death rates averaged over the last 5 years and this is with a lockdown. It is likely that the virus is not as widespread as a seasonal flu because of that and therefore it’s mortality rate is much higher.


At the moment anyone who mentions WHO and science in same sentence have automatically nullified themselves. WHO is a purely political organization. End of story. Got nothing to do with actual science. Stuff that is backed by transparent substantive robust published literature.

The difference between Belgium, Germany and Norway numbers is simple.

Belgium is being Belgium. By this stage anyone over a certain age or with certain preconditions is automatically a COVID death. Much like NY state. So divided by 5 to 7 for real number.

German numbers are pretty much the number of people who actually died of a full blown SARs CoV 2 infection leading to severe pneumonia. Due to the RKI testing criteria and each states peculiarities the German numbers are not exactly medically the same as South Korea and Taiwan. But close enough.

The Norwegian numbers seem to be pretty much the same criteria as used as South Korea and Taiwan. So medically accurate. The Norwegians are already publishing post crisis papers about how their pre-crisis plans, they had very extensive ones, fared in the real world over the last five months. Pretty OK on the whole. They already assume in their current plans that SARs CoV 2 will become a general circulation coronavirus so ongoing plans are based on minimizing over 80’s deaths and keeping as many under 80’s as possible out of ICU’s. So a control introduction scenario over an extended time period. But there is no assumption of any practical containment.

One interesting observation in the recent Norwegian medical publications is that most of the differences between death rates from actual SARs Cov 2 severe pneumonia in Norway and other countries like Ireland and Italy is due to the fact that the Norwegian medical system put a huge effort into reducing and controlling secondary infectious agents like MRSA etc in their medical facilities more than ten years ago.

And given that the actual cause of death in severe pneumonias is often secondary infections, reduce the secondary infection rate to very low numbers and the numbers of pneumonia deaths while in hospital care can be reduced by up to two thirds . It seems that accounts for a lot of difference in the deaths rates for ICUs cases between Norway and Italy. Norwegian hospitals have far higher standards when it comes to controlling chronic environmental infectious agents than Italian hospitals. And Irish ones too.


Interesting interview with Prof. Dolores Cahill.