Coronavirus 2020


#2359

Completely agreed. Bizarrely Covid is now part of the Culture war. Even naming the illness became a Hate Speech discussion. The Libertarian element in America effectively sealed the fate of any chance that Left/Liberal bodies would oppose the lockdown. There wasn’t much chance anyway.


#2362

I only know 3 cases. Two medics who were very mild and one person in their 60s who had a severe case.

Covid knock approximately 7years off ones life expectancy mainly from those over 70. The alternative is not zero impact. Poverty knocks 10years off your life. Current measures and austerity will cause the mother of all depressions making the 1980s and gfc look like a walk in the park.
Then there is delayed cancer diagnosis and many other impacts.


#2363

Is there something seriously wrong with stanards in meat plants of is the working conditions i.e. Cold crampted areas an ideal environment for the spread of covid


#2364

Or are the tests actually reliable?


#2365

It’s a loud environment, working at relatively close quarters to other people.


#2366

Jesus, this is grim, and El Presidente wants to fully reopen on June 1st.


#2367

#2368

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Very interesting info. Excess deaths across all eu countries was around 30k per week. Of course this was with all the restrictions in place.


#2369

Broken by age cohort too. Its overwhelmingly 65+ and 85+

I wonder if this is because of neglect or lack of access healthcare due to restrictions rather than solely C19.

Does anyone have any data for comparison e.g. Sweden


#2370

What is the biggest difference between these?

  1. mobility, although CZ got plenty of tourism.
  2. who acted faster with closures not on global scale, but on , see https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland for some data on these. However I think they missing the non symptomatic spreaders being around much earlier than first severe cases or deaths, we are not sure if 21st of March was really 1. one in Ireland, even if that means he got infected 2-3 weeks earlier at least, so virus was around.
  3. Ireland has a lot of retirement homes and old population. Sweden has a lot of single person households.
  4. luck?

Next weeks are going to be interesting, will there going to be hammer and dance and we will not get crazy outbreaks no more?


#2371

Ireland has an old population? Au contraire! Ireland has the youngest population in Europe. And we closed down almost everything for the past two months.

Why then are we doing so much worse than the Poles and Czechs? Could it possibly be that those ill-liberal poor relations could teach us something! If so, you won’t read it in the Irish media- so long as Leo looks better than Boris and the Donald, they’re satisfied.


#2372

ye it was closed, too late. UK closed later and suffered more. The exponential growth is… exponential every day meant a lot.
If EU acted in January by massive order of masks, reduced travel to from EU. There would be an economic slowdown not economic, medical and social catastrophe!

Ye but it was better to act a fool and pretend it will not get here until what 13th of March for most of EU?

They wanted to save overinflated stock so much, they created a bigger problem. Its simple, but narrative will be as always “nobody could see that coming”. Ye it was nothing special when a communist regime ordered harsh stay at home order and put economy into stand still.

btw… it’s not the end of it. 95%+ was not exposed to the virus and so far…
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ead3c6475654481ca51c248d52ab9c61
You can see East - West divide… except Belarus where Baćka declared No Virus. :frowning:


#2373

There is no playing down, just a very reasonable reaction to current public hysteria by the media and and the gross overreaction by most government. Conflated this with the usual kooks one finds swirling around all subjects is just a strawman.

Here is a better question. How about showing the actual published science that would support the hugely disruptive and huge expensive current lockdown?

Not possible. Because it does not actually exist. I’ve been looking hard for the last few months.

When you actually read widely through the published scientific literature you cannot actually final any solid substantive basis for any of the policies or the models they are based on. Its just a lot of Argument From Authority by the government and its advisors.

Nothing more.

So you know some people who got a SARs CoV 2 infection. Big fucking deal. I got Swine Flu in 2009 and it was the worst infectious illness of my life. But it did nt kill me. and the 60k to 80K it did kill in the US were overwhelming the people with high risk prior conditions. Just like with COVID-19.

If you dont get a high PSI/PORT score then you have a very low probability of dying of a SARs CoV 2 infection. End of story. Exactly the same as Swine Flu. And all other pandemic flu’s of the last 90 years.

I also know of a whole bunch of people who have tested positive for SARs 2. The only ones who have died were either very old or very sick. All would had very high PSI/PORT scores.So had a seriously impaired life expectancy. Although none it seems actually died of server pneumonia. Which is how SAR 2 infections actually kill people. The only person I have heard of who actually died from COVID-19, a severe pneumonia, and was nt obviously old and sick was a friend of a friend who was 63 and living in Manhattan.

Thats about it. From a very wide net of people and contacts in six countries. One of which officially has one of the highest death rates in the world.

If you look back at my early positing on the subject I took it very seriously when it looked like it was R0 of 2.5 to 3 and mortality rate of 2% with no obvious cross immunity. The early numbers out of Hong Kong in January. But as the pandemic developed and the numbers were starting to under-perform the original epidemiological model curves and the clinical papers filled in the data set I started to have my doubts. Then in early April I stumbled across the first South Korean papers, it had not be referenced in any the sources which were supposed to keep on top of the most important new papers, I was shocked at what the actual numbers were. Dug through the SK numbers and published papers and the Taiwanese papers too. Turned out the original estimates were too high for perfectly understandable reasons. As is always the way in these situations.

Problem is all the government lockdown policy is based on second hand knowledge of the original estimates. Not the actual real world numbers based on high quality data sets. The Norwegian model is now onto its third R0 estimate. Greatly lowers as new data comes in. I see no indication that the Irish model has got beyond its first.

So the base R0 used by the governemnt as the basis of the models is completely wrong. If the base R0 was what the government use the number of excess pneumonia deaths in the last 8 week would have been more than ten thousand not the few hundred that actually occurred.

Likewise, if the mortality rate used by the governemnt as the basis of the models is completely wrong. If the base R0 was what the government use the number of excess pneumonia deaths in the last 8 week would have been more than ten thousand not the few hundred that actually occurred.

Here are some other problems with the models, all of them, not just the SIS guys. The asymptotic number is way too low. Actual field research shows its around 80% for IAV type infections. Not 30%/40% best guess used by the text books. Same goes for infection ration. More like .8 rather than .1 when you look at actual field research on actual source of air borne agents. This changes the dynamics of any effects of non-pharmaceutical polices by a very marked degree.

Which lead to the whole Social Distance bullshit. The whole theory of this is based on distance a sneeze particle or cough particle can travel. Thats all. First problem, all actual published field research on actual percentage / origin of airborne IAV type pathogens in real world indoor spaces showed that the vast majority of active agents were in aerosols that are the result of respiration. Sneeze, cough particles only made up a very small percentage of active pathogen in the measured enclosed space. Only a few percent.The problem is people breathing not people coughing. When you looked at actual DTI-50 numbers for real world enclosed spaces those with air circulation had very low numbers. So even in high traffic enclosed areas open the windows and the DPI-50 curves collapsed.

Thats why the SARs 2 infection rate due to causal short term interactions in public spaces is so low in South Korea and in Taiwan.

As long as you are not in a badly ventilated enclosed space for an extended period of time, say hours, the DPI-50 for getting infected with SARs CoV 2 is at about background level.

Is quoting the actual scientific literature Alt Right? In that case here is some more Alt Right propaganda

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30150-8/fulltext

https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jam.14278

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(14)70034-7/fulltext


#2374

That was April 14th, but this is now:

Someone in FF gone rouge, maybe not exactly and appears to reply in the colloquial to clarify.

Fintan Cox

You clown my post was nothing about them the hse should have arranged free accommodation for them…

Discussed further here: https://www.politicalirish.com/threads/fianna-fail-immigration-sceptic-exposes-filipino-covid-spreaders.35750/

Plenty twitter comments tripping over his mention of the nurses place of birth and missing the point, so, aside from what appears to be HSE policy to recruit staff from the refugee population hold up in direct provision centres, being somewhat well, mad.

Specifically here the question is what happened to the HSE scheme for temp accommodation here?

Is this the only failure point or are there many others?


TBH my impression for most of this event is that nursing homes have gotten hammered across the world, and thus it is not uniquely controversial to Ireland - but that does not absolve the current tyrannical regime.


#2375

Point of note - The Video is now gone as predicted and the website url redirect to another site with a countering message.


#2376

#2377

#2378

Tesla Supercharger usage by region

Src: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1261009993588862976


#2379

Guess the china state propaganda in the indo is working


#2380

Any links?