Coronavirus 2020


#2523

China? who buys all the crap and who outsourced their dirt to China?
Consumer mindset is to blame same as brainwashing corporations and their lobbyist. Everything is made to fail in order to sell more soon.

Just realised Sweden got more death/capita than France, seems like Göteborg area is growing fast in recent days. I wonder if in few weeks time it will cause second wave in Oslo which is not far away.


#2524

Sorry for belated delay. Other stuff going on.

Been digging through the literature and the physics of physical distancing. Looks like it only might made a small difference in interactions with family / close friends. Otherwise no basis in science.

First normal physical distancing during social interactions. With strangers > 1.2M. Acquaintances, 0.9M. Family / close friends 0.6M. This comes from studies of physicals distancing depending on culture and country.

SARs-CoV 2 has exactly the same infection transmission characteristics as Influenza A Virus. So IAV research applies to SARs CoV 2 transmission.

All research regarding airborne transmission seems to use airborne droplet density. Droplets with active viruses. Not qualified by active virus density per droplet. The generally accepted density of active droplet exposure of the upper respiratory system before there is a 50% probability of detectable infection is 10^3 droplets. Which equates to an air density of 10^4 droplets / m^3 in 10 mins. Or 10^5 in 1 min. Assuming typical respiratory intake rate of 10L per min.

Although a sneeze can generate 10^4 droplets, cough’s only around 10^2, when respiratory source aerosols are tested in real world environments somewhere between 80% and 95% seem to be from tidal respiration. Simple breathing. Not sneezes or coughs.

People with active infections can produce from 0 to 10^6 active droplets per min during normal respiration. But the median is around 10^2. Very small number of the 10^6 people. But they are the super-spreaders. Seems to be no correlation between strength of infection and number of active infectious droplets produced. Super-spreaders can only be identified post-facto.

The fall off of density of airborne repository droplets is around 70% at 1M and 80% and 2M. In still air. Add normal air circulation in any typically ventilated room or outdoor space and the difference is statistically meaningless.

So given that normal physical distancing between strangers is already more than 1M all officially “social distancing” policies are statistically meaningless. Zero effect for huge disruption.

If the R0 actually was 3 or 4 rather than 1.5 then crowded trains, buses, etc might be a problem. But public transit was not shut down in 2009 and there is no reason why it should be now.

In crowed situations surgical mask / cloth face masks give zero protection against airborne infectious droplets. Their purpose is to deflect the velocity out outgoing droplets. N95 or N99 masks do give meaningful protection. N95 good, N99 almost total if fitted correctly.

So for most people going about their day to day life if they actually want to reduce exposure in a meaningful way they should not bother with wearing a mask in public but should wear a N95 mask or better around friends and family. Thats the only form of social distancing that has any actual scientific basis. But given the actual risk profile opening the window or door or turning on a fan would have a far far bigger positive risk reduction effect…


#2525

Coronavirus crisis over and curbs can end, French science chief declares

The French chief scientific adviser has urged the government to fully reopen schools and hasten the end of other curbs on normal life, declaring that the coronavirus was under control.

Jean-François Delfraissy, head of the Scientific Council created by President Macron for the crisis, said that the virus was retreating faster than expected almost a month after the end of a strict two-month lockdown and a week after most other restrictions were lifted.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-crisis-over-and-curbs-can-end-french-science-chief-declares-cs69c6dc2


#2526

Things are looking bleak in Brazil.


#2527

Hot of the press!
Efficacy of surgical masks and respiratory shedding
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2
In particular see table 1b
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2/tables/2

We also demonstrated the efficacy of surgical masks to reduce coronavirus detection and viral copies in large respiratory droplets and in aerosols (Table 1b). This has important implications for control of COVID-19, suggesting that surgical face masks could be used by ill people to reduce onward transmission.


#2528

Covid-19: Gardaí lose enforcement powers over movement restrictions

Gardaí no longer have the power to enforce the movement restrictions laid out in the emergency coronavirus legislation introduced by the Government.

As of yesterday, people can travel anywhere within their own county or for up to 20km outside it, up from a previous radius of 5km.

However, unlike previous versions of the regulations, the latest provisions do not mention a criminal penalty for breaching the movement restrictions.

This means gardaí can no longer arrest or prosecute anyone moving outside the radius. The move to revoke one of the most draconian Garda powers in living memory was made on Sunday with no announcement or publicity.

There is more


#2529

How many fines were issues regarding covid?


#2530

WHO to believe?

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is ‘very rare,’ WHO says

Coronavirus patients without symptoms aren’t driving the spread of the virus, World Health Organization officials said Monday, casting doubt on concerns by some researchers that the disease could be difficult to contain due to asymptomatic infections.

Read more here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html


#2531

#2532

#2533

Maybe this is the second peak?


#2534

Why does the headline say “confidential patient information” a phrase which is again emphasised in the story? Why would he be sending this to wikileaks-as if they’d give a shit about Mrs Murphy’s gallstones? Why would he be sending this to politicians as if it gave him some kind of leverage over them when he would be the one “in the wrong” and it wouldn’t affect them in the slightest? Why did the hearing begin behind closed doors with just representatives of the state present?

It couldn’t possibly be that he actually took completely different information regarding the operation of this entire fiasco and this reporting is the first stage of the misdirection could it?


#2535

no, nothing to see hear - down with this sort of thing.

I’m thinking it was good info (for wikileaks) but the wrong type of eejit tried to do something with it. If you had good info you make sure it is anonymously and irrevocably published then you draw attention to it through other channels.


#2536

I was thinking exactly the same thing. 1 billion for PPE for one year, 75 million for hand sanitizer for schools just until Xmas, private hospital rental space, City West rental etc etc etc

Somebody is getting very rich out of all this - I wonder was the IT guy trying to expose some irregularities in HSE procurement practices?


#2537

https://gript.ie/irelands-death-rate-in-april-is-lower-than-two-years-ago/?fbclid=IwAR0QEtHpjmqgHDpzU0SqQu3YbMJtSlfmGE5oLyBSX13ARPrgKFDYZZ9Gfbo


#2538

Is Aseop spinning yet? :thinking:

On cursory read of the Gript.ie figures, they appear to chime with my earlier napkin analysis posted here in this topic on the 8th of April which also gave an indications that deaths were ranging higher for 2018, a period relating to rip figures for Jan - Apr 8th (2020)


#2539

#2540

Fauci, Jun 10th.


#2541

So this is all a load of baloney then?


#2542