Coronavirus 2020


#3187

Big read. Worth effort.

Positives ≠ cases

Even a quite simple understanding of statistics indicates that positive test results must be parsed through the filter of the relevant FPR. Fortunately, we can estimate the FPR from what little raw data the government has given us but worryingly, this estimate suggests that ~99% of all positive tests are ‘false’.

Meanwhile, increased deaths from drug and alcohol abuse during lockdowns, the inevitable increase in cases of depression and suicide once job losses after furlough, business and marriage failures post loan forbearance become manifest and, most seriously, the missed cancer diagnoses from the 2.1m screenings that have been delayed must be balanced against a government response to COVID-19 that looks increasingly out of all proportion to the hard evidence.

The unacknowledged FPR is taking lives, so establishing the FPR, and therefore accurate numbers for the true community prevalence of the virus, is absolutely essential.


#3188

This will give some ammunition to the likes of IBEC, Dublin Chamber etc…
NPHET seem to have their trigger fingers poised on the lock-down button as enthusiastically as Father Dougal in that infamous scene


#3189

The presence of a “chronic illness” is the “all-important factor” in determining a person’s Covid-19 risk, he points out. “You can identify with amazing accuracy who is at risk, as with no other disease.”

“The best-kept secret regarding Covid-19 is the vulnerability of individuals who are overweight,” he asserts.

Quite.


#3190

Here is a thing, that no one figured when I raised the Japan flag, I did a lot more digging but I have not had time ot outline but obesity is very low in Japan.

I put that as one of their saving cultural graces that explains their very low mortality figures for such a large and high density population, there are other things but this has to be a biggie in terms of contributing factors of protection.

I am not sure they even noticed this, maybe they did, they did a lot of introspection, It’s like not a national or cultural feature other than the extremity of Sumo, so they are not necessarily calibrated to it as a feature of life, where perhaps we have all grown (pun intended) use to the idea of girt expanding later years in the west. Food for thought.


#3191

Decent balanced article

https://www.ft.com/content/9a1e118f-a4ef-43ab-a981-58b8bd35c0e1


#3192

Paywall!!!

I find these days if you search a headline you discover it’s often farmed out across multiple online sources - so is this the same content or not?

https://www.reporter.am/swedens-covid-19-experiment-holds-a-worldwide-warning/


#3193

Thanks. It didn’t come up as paywall for me but I wouldn’t be looking at the ft too often.


#3195

Well look at that…


#3196

#3197

Silence


#3198

This is crazy. About 10/15 years ago there were robust discussions and debates on radio and TV over drink-driving limits and random breath testing - with those arguing for, and against any new laws.


#3199

If you want crazy listen to a replay of Plank this morning at 9 am. He had Jack Lambert on. To paraphrase

People refusing to wear Masks and if it’s proven that they gave the virus to someone else they should be charged with a crime and if the victim dies it’s manslaughter.

I shit you not, Plank nearly wet himself.

We are a fckin joke.


#3200

Lambert is one of those “HIV industry” medical hucksters. A useful rule of thumb in the medical industry bureaucracy is that the moment you see HIV anywhere in the resume you know are usually dealing with a nasty careerist utterly up to his eyeballs in the mendacity of the business. HIV is a very lucrative trivial disease in the West. Unless you are a really stupid junkie who shares needles with dozens other stupid junkies or you screw many dozens / hundreds of gay men the probability of getting infected with this “syndrome” is nil once the tainted blood treatment products were removed from the market.

The actual science which Lambert seems to be complete ignorant of is that coranoviruses are almost always spread by respiratory aerosols < 2 micron which have the highest probability of infection in confined spaces during prolonged exposure. 30 / 45 mins plus. The 1min and 10 min infection probability numbers for those kind of respiratory aerosols are very low. Thats been the actual published science covering the last 50 years.

So the only place wearing masks to reduce infection probabilities for coronaviruses is at home around family or enclosed space with no through ventilation. Like in hospitals. Just open a window at home and infection probability drops to very low. Again that is the actual science.

The other scientific fact is that face coverings and single layer masks have ZERO filtering effect on < 2 micron aerosols. Zero. Face shields. Zero. Four layer surgical masks when worn properly give at most N20 protection. For a short period of time. N95 and N99 are the only masks that actual have any filtering effect on respiratory aerosols and the science is that only measurable effect on infection rates is when people in high public contact situations wear them. No meaningful measurable effect on epidemic infection rates when the general population wears them.

As sneezing and wet coughs are not one of the symptoms of coronaviruses the effecting of face covering on preventing infected air-borne particles being passed onto to others is basically ZERO.

And once a epidemic become community spread and no longer cluster spread all pubic health actions like location isolation, lockdowns, contact tracing etc have zero effect on the long term infection rate, the IFR, or the CFR. None. But have huge economic and human costs including a greatly increased deaths for other causes.

So everything Lambert is saying is a very politically motivated unscientific lie. A complete and total lie. Very simple to prove. Just read the relevant scientific literature.


#3201

What a pile of stinking rubbish, there is no differential criteria for levels 2-3-4, NONE. See page 29. Which means moving between these levels is still basically whatever NPHET decide at their whim and then on the very day they launch this grand plan they don’t even stick to it, announcing Dublin is sort of level 2ish.

Would it have killed them to put criteria like “Level 1 where 7 day incidence below x, Level 2 where 7 day incidence above x but below y” that might actually drive some desirable behaviours.


#3202

Not a chance were the Politician’s going to leave themselves open to black and white criteria like that


#3203

Any links to the “reaction” online and elsewhere to see if sense can be made of this nonsense.


#3204

Finland

The way I understand this story for context, this would be the Finnish equivalent of our beloved NPHET or head of public health policy position.

(Google Translate version)

THL’s Salminen: Korona is not as dangerous as feared - “What Korona looked like in the spring is not quite true”

The overall impact of Korona needs to be reassessed, says Mika Salminen.

Korona is not as deadly a disease as was feared in the spring.

A smaller proportion of reported cases now require hospitalization. The number of deaths in the corona has fallen since the spring peak.

  • Korona is still a serious disease, but for a much smaller proportion of those infected than initially estimated, says Mika Salminen, THL’s Director of Health Safety at the Finnish Institute of Health and Welfare .

THL’s Salminen says the overall impact of the corona needs to be reassessed. In the spring, Korona looked like a much more dangerous disease than it has been proven. In the spring, there was no picture of Finland, which is the spectrum of symptoms.

  • What Korona looked like in the spring is not quite true. In the spring, it seemed that the people with Corona were pretty sick.

According to Mika Salminen, THL's Director of Health Safety, society has learned to live with a corona and to better protect people at risk.

According to Mika Salminen, THL’s Director of Health Safety, society has learned to live with a corona and to better protect people at risk. PHOTO: ANTTI AIMO-KOIVISTO / LEHTIKUVA

Salminen says that he discussed the situation with his Spanish colleagues.

  • In Spain, when 47% of cases diagnosed in the spring required hospital treatment, now only 4% need hospital treatment. Patients have also been taught to care better. Mortality in the new wave in Spain is well below 1 percent.

Salminen adds to the same breath that he does not want to downplay the severity of the disease. For some people, Korona is serious, especially in the elderly.

According to Salminen, society has learned to live with the corona and to better protect those at risk.

  • In the spring, there was a shortage of protective equipment in many countries. Forms of supported housing were not able to test staff in the same way as today. Individuals who had virtually no symptoms could not know of their infection.

Plant epidemics broke out in many countries. The corona spread rapidly in units with frail elderly people.

If an update is needed, what should be done about corona control. Should society be opened up more boldly?

  • Balancing is definitely needed. Too boldly, at least there is no reason to move forward yet, but if the situation we now see continues and relative mortality does not increase, then it is time for reflection again. However, the protection of risk groups must not be compromised at any stage, Salminen replies.

Statistics from the WORLD Health Organization show that coronary mortality has fallen sharply in Europe since the spring peak. The number of detected infections, on the other hand, has started to rise in the summer after the spring slump.

THL’s Salminen says that it was already predicted in the spring that this would happen. After the initial peak, the number of deaths decreases.

According to him, usually in emerging diseases, serious cases are initially highlighted. An image emerges that the disease causes higher mortality in the population than the reality is.

  • In the beginning nowhere was there no testing capacity to screen people, as is now done.

Diagnostic capacity is now at a completely different level than in the spring. Today, most of the right cases can be found. The disease picture becomes more precise.

  • Now there is a bigger wound and a bigger part is found. In the spring, we probably had a multiple of the number of cases as the statistics show. They could not be tested.

According to Mika Salminen, the diagnostic capacity is now at a completely different level than in the spring. The picture shows a corona testing point in the Port of Turku.

According to Mika Salminen, the diagnostic capacity is now at a completely different level than in the spring. The picture shows a corona testing point in the Port of Turku. PHOTO: TATU LERTOLA

In Finland, the number of corona tests has multiplied. While 2,500 tests were performed per day during the spring corona peak, there are now 10,000 to 14,000 tests per day.

  • When 17 tests were performed during the highest peak in the spring and one infection was found. Today, about 400 tests are performed that can be found in one, Salminen compares.

In Finland, people have been advised to apply for tests for already smaller runny nose symptoms. Extensive testing has highlighted younger cases. They are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.

WHO Europe Director Hans Kluge has warned that the number of deaths in Europe could start to rise in October-November.

According to WHO European Director Hans Kluge, the number of deaths in Europe may start to rise in October-November.

According to WHO European Director Hans Kluge, the number of deaths in Europe may start to rise in October-November. PHOTO: IDA GULDBAEK ARENTSEN / RITZAU SCANPIX / REUTERS

THL’s Salminen says this is possible.

  • We can’t rule it out. With the delay it will come, but now that delay has been quite long. It takes an average of two to three weeks for the illness to begin to increase.

According to Salminen, the coronary vaccine does not solve the situation in one fell swoop. It is not yet known what the effect of the vaccine will be.

  • Unfortunately, there is a way that older people have a little worse power.

Salminen adds that not everyone will be vaccinated overnight.

  • It will certainly take time and usually it will take such a time that not all the necessary vaccines will be available at once. They come at different stages. All these questions are still open.

Salminen warns that he must live with the corona for a long time to come.

Even if a vaccine is found to be safe this year, logistics alone will work.

  • Although, of course, we hope that the epidemic will subside in the spring, we must be strongly prepared for the fact that we can have to cope with the epidemic until the summer. And you can go further if there are challenges or surprises. This pandemic has provided them on several occasions.

Original Src (Finnish): https://www.is.fi/kotimaa/art-2000006635940.html

Translate Src: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fi&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.is.fi%2Fkotimaa%2Fart-2000006635940.html


Archived Google Translate of Original Version: https://archive.is/jlopd
Archived Google Translate of English Version: https://archive.is/gdpm8


#3205

#3206

2009

(Googel Translate Version)

Attali: a small pandemic will allow the establishment of a world government!

Wednesday 13 May 2009

[France]

It took Jacques Attali to think about it! In [his column] of the magazine L’Express of May 3, the former sherpa of François Mitterrand reveals some intimate fantasies of the oligarchic world. In short: where the financial crash has so far failed, a good little pandemic could precipitate our leaders to accept the establishment of a world government!

“History teaches us that humanity only evolves significantly when it is really afraid: it then first sets up defense mechanisms; sometimes intolerable (scapegoats and totalitarianisms); sometimes futile (distraction); sometimes effective (therapeutic, if necessary setting aside all previous moral principles). Then, once the crisis has passed, it transforms these mechanisms to make them compatible with individual freedom and to include them in a democratic health policy. "

For Attali, “The beginning of the pandemic could trigger one of these structuring fears” , because it will raise , "better than any humanitarian or ecological discourse, the awareness of the need for altruism, at least interested. "

"And, even if, as we can obviously hope, this crisis is not very serious, we must not forget, as for the economic crisis, to learn the lessons, so that before the next - inevitable - prevention and control mechanisms are put in place, as well as logistical processes for the equitable distribution of drugs and vaccines. For that, we will have to put in place a global police force, a global storage and therefore a global taxation. We will then, much faster than the sole economic reason would have allowed, to set up the bases of a real world government. "


Original Src (French): https://solidariteetprogres.fr/actualites-001/attali-une-petite-pandemie
Original Src Archived Link: https://archive.is/GTEB4


#3207

Someone a while ago posted a link to an article about the utter insanity of mass screening testing for a low prevalence of infectious disease like SARs Cov 2.

Here is a paper with the actual mathematics illustrated.

Although the first worked example in the paper uses a sample infection rate P at least 10/15 times higher than the highest probable likely rate for SARs Cov 2 in any general population at the moment. P for HCOV’s are generally around 0.01. At any given time at least 1% of the adult population has an active HCOV infection, usually a cold. The likely rate for SARs CoV 2 is maybe at most 30% / 50% of the general HCOV population infection rate at the moment. So P is around 0.003/0.005

What this means is that for any 1000 people tested using random fast screening tests 995 to 997 will have no infection, and between 3 and 5 will be infected. For this thousand we will have at most 4 maybe 5 correct positive tests for those infected and at more than 50 false positive for those without an infection.

That assumes a 95% accuracy rate for the test. Which is very optimistic even for RT-PCR done in mass quantities at high speed. Anti-body and other tests have much lower accuracy rates.

So the science is settled. With a human coronaviruses like SARs Cov 2 mass screening would produce a 90% to 95% false positive rate. Every time a person is tested. A highly targeted diagnostic test on those with active symptoms, now that actually makes a little bit more sense. Although given that there are no clinically effective therapeutic treatments for SARs Cov 2 infections or any of the related LRI’s its all a bit of a waste of time.