Coronavirus 2020


#3229

What are the odds the recent good weather lowers the number of infections anyway but our politicians take the credit ?


#3230

Not sure what the obsession is with hcq but there is very little evidence of the benefits of hcq.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17907-w

You would be better off with zinc and vitamen D based on a number of studies. Some steroids have shown clear benefit.
HCQ is frequently perscribed for certain medical conditions.


#3231

If you read the paper you will see that the sample sizes are statistically meaningless. N=8, N=10 etc. Plus some hamsters. Basically some guys stuck some chemicals in a few animals and stuff happened, or maybe did not. Basically a junk paper. The scientific equivalent of a pub anecdote. They can get back when they have properly constituted samples of N > 1K, Even 300 would have some scientific merit. But not 10.

Whereas HCQ was one of the standard therapeutic clinical treatments for SARs 1 and now SARs 2, for the last two decades, mainly because it seemed to have some effect with fewer side effects than the alternatives. and there was no problem with that until it was enveloped by an Orange Man Bad derangement syndrome. The utterly fraudulent paper in The Lancet (surprise surprise) being the worst example. Why Richard Horten has not been sent to jail for the multiple very dangerous politically motivated scientific frauds he has facilitated is beyond me. A lot of people have died and being maimed because of his very deliberate professional mendaciousness over the decades.


#3232

Surely one of the big questions not being asked is - what went wrong with the whole mask-wearing thing?

They became mandatory in all retail and indoor settings here from August 10th. Not only did case numbers not fall - they began to rise steadily - hitting 200 daily cases less than a week later - the highest daily figure since May…and have continued rising since then.

Note: I’m not making any connection or co-relation at all. But if the pubs had opened from around then - they’d get 100% of the blame for the increase in cases.


#3233

The simple answer, face coverings and simple masks dont work for coronaviruses. At least nothing less than a N95. And they might have some effect with cluster spread not community spread. When worn indoors in confined spaces. Like at home…

The public cases numbers are meaningless. Statistical noise. SARs CoV 2 has been a community spread coronovirus since at least early April so just like the other HCOV’s if you do lots of testing, especially with the very high false positive rates in such situations, the numbers will randomly fluctuation from 1% to 3% of the population. For ever. The numbers you see now will be in the same range in 1 years time, 3 years time, 5 years time etc. But they will have given up testing long before that because it is so futile.

The reason why HCOV infections are so ubiquitous, 1% of the population at any given time, around 10% for kids under 10 (15%/20% of common colds) is because they are mostly asymptomatic, they mostly spread in confined spaces (hence the winter outbreak pattern), and immunity wears off after a few years because they are so mutagenic.

And SARS CoV 2 is just another HCOV. Like 229E and AC43. Nothing special. Medically speaking.

There is zero scientific basis for the current public health policies. Zero. Its all political theater . Very expensive political theater executed with utter incompetence.


#3234

Another of the big questions I have not seen asked, let alone answered, is “how many of the recent positive cases have gone on to display symptoms of full blown COVID?”, could it be that many are false positives because they had the virus months ago.


#3235

Seriously? Many of the people I know work in the health services - right across the spectrum from health care assistants in nursing homes through radiographers, gps, surgeons to professors of medicine and none of them think masks don’t work - to be honest I (like the vast majority of the public) am more inclined to believe them than some randomer on the internet. I have no idea what the agenda behind this kind of misinformation is - it may be a tactic that works in some societies but in Ireland there is a higher level of community interconnection that means that more people know someone who - has died of covid, works in the health service, is in serious danger if they get an infection (of any sort) or has had Covid and has suffered some long term damage as a result of that. Last weekend I watched a guy get strips torn off him in Nutgrove shopping centre for trying to bully the girl at Tescos into letting him in without a mask - when the security guy turned up he changed his stance and the people around clapped him off the stage - he had a reddener on him at that point.


#3236

Good point in relation to the n value. Still i haven’t seen any real evidence of the efficacy of hcq. If i was in hospital with lungs packing it in, id probably give it a go. It would be bone stupid to take it if there is nothing wrong with you or if you have heart conditions. Question is why do you need it if its your position that it is less deadly than the flu…


#3237

You and your conformist, gullible, virtue-signally friends at Nutgrove swim with the tide.

Good for fucking you.

Masks up, but infections up?

Positive tests up, but triages and deaths down?

Education down, inequality up?

Working class kids fucked over for an entire school year, but hey that’s ok because Google/FDI-employed parents are WFH in DLR and home-schooling between trips to Cabinteely park.

Doctors did not screen their patients, and now some of them are dying?

As for your anecdotes, I know two individuals whose life expectancy has been curtailed by the fucking lockdown policy.


#3238

The latest lockdown is a load of. The economy can not survive another lockdown. I cant understand how other countries have not learned from the Swedish experience. There has to be a case made for shielding elderly people and trying to manage as best as possible. There are severe impacts of lockdowns from mental health, social isolation and lack of other health care servoces incl cancer screening etc


#3239

Yeah, this Lockdown is panic mixed with hysteria blended with paralysis and fear.

Meanwhile in another Galaxy 100 miles up the road…


#3240

Leaving aside the debate around Hydroxycloroquine, there has been zero emphasis placed on building up levels of natural immunity thus far.

As per above people should be encouraged to boost levels of zinc and Vitamin D and take regular exercise. Now that we know more about this virus there is clearly little benefit to blanket lockdowns of healthy people.


#3241

Id have to agree in terms of masks. People will also rub up against you with a mask on. The only way for people to keep there distance to you is not to wear a mask. You will get 3m easily.


#3242

I think the government/civil service/health establishment are misjudging this one. They’ve no authority left. FF has a 10% opinion poll rating. Martin has had 25 years of Communications Clinic training so he’s now incapable of answering questions in a straightforward manner. Everyone sees through his bullshit. They’re like a small baby with a playset - pulling levers, pressing buttons - but they don’t even know what works. And as for all their leaks & kite flying - there are Junior GAA clubs with better standards of responsibility to their members. If it wasn’t so tragic it would be funny.

The critical mistake from the start was the decision (for moriah privacy reasons) to not be transparent about where and how cases were arising.

https://twitter.com/NewAtlantisSun/status/1306242318320783360?s=20


#3243

And exactly what would YOU do in this situation - what would YOU propose as an approach? What would YOU consider a successful outcome and how would YOU measure it? Equally what would YOU consider to be failure and how would YOU measure it?


#3244

Well my background for quite a few decades now is digging through very heavy duty academic literature include very serious mathematics, tearing it all apart and then building back up again what is essential hugely complex mathematical models in a form that works and that people will pay very good money for. Which is a very different level of completeness from almost all published scientific papers. Most published papers, in all fields, usually have serious problems somewhere, in the life sciences its almost always the math. Sometimes very basic logical errors. The stuff I produce is a level of completeness, and actual provability, way beyond anything you will find in most academic literature. Even the stuff that is supposed to be rigorously formally proved.

I have also spent far too much time over the last five decades dealing with doctors and hospitals with my own and immediate family members chronic, non treatable medical conditions. The difficult stuff that too many doctors bullshit patients about because they really dont have a fucking clue about causes and all treatments are at best palliative with basically placebo levels of efficacy, usually with nasty side effects. So dont be too surprised if I treat what doctors say with as much suspicion as lawyers. I have heard just as much straight out bullshitting from both professions.

So just as with lawyers I do my own background research through the literature not to second guess but to get a feel from what sounds like a well informed professional opinion and what is just someone trying to bullshit their way though the subject. I have posted quite a few citations and links to the relevant medical and bio-science literature on this thread over the months. Pretty much everything I posted above you will find the original citations somewhere in my previous postings. You can follow the citation, reference chain through the links I have posted in the past to the full relevant literature.

I also know exactly how the medical system works in Ireland and having direct experience of the medical systems of a bunch of other countries including the US and France I find the level of straight out bullshitting in the Irish system to be without peer. About as bad as solicitors and barristers.

So I have been researching the relevant literature since early January on SARs 2 and related subjects. Posted lots of links here. Until early April when I found the first South Korea clinical paper published in March I considers SARS 2 to be as dangerous as SAR1, with the same IFR ans CFR. By June it became obvious from the published papers that not only was SARs 2 not like SARs1, but as one read through the HCOV literature that the clinical and epidemiological profile of SARs 2 was exactly the same as the other HCOVs. Same asymptomatic rates etc. So its just like viruses we have lived with quite happily for generations. So why then the current insanity which is collapsing whole sectors of the economy.

I posted quite a lot of references to the Norwegian handling of the situation because it was a very good control subject for how Ireland public policy handled the crisis. What Norway actually did was what Ireland was trying to do and failed spectacularly to do. And still is. Sweden is how a country that actually follows the real hard published science should do it. The final tally, which is always two to three years after the start of the epidemic will show that Sweden’s total excess deaths will be lower than Norway. Norwegian researchers have already indicated that will be the most probable result.

If its any consolation a lot of other places have fucked up even more than Ireland. Italy, Spain, New York and New Jersey come to mind. With California not far behind. But it still does not change the fact the the handling of SARS CoV 2 going into general circulation has been the biggest public policy catastrophe in the modern era. Pure mass hysteria.

Here is the actual science. From the published literature. Not from some press release from a international medical bureaucracy. SARs CoV 2 is a HCOV with the same clinical and epidemiological profile as the four HCOV’s already in common circulation. SARs CoV 2 does not have the same clinical and epidemiological profile as SARs CoV 1 and MERS. In fact there is a move to rename SARs CoV 2 to something more consistent with the other HCOV’s. Because it is so different medically from SARs CoV 1.

As of now the probability of someone dying of a SARs CoV 2 infection is about the same as them dying from a HCOV coronavirus common cold. Which is about 15%/20% of common colds. The rest are mostly caused rhinoviruses. If you are high risk of pneumonia (by the CURB-65 criteria) based on the published clinical papers so far your risk of dying of 229E is higher than SARs CoV 2 but OC43 risk etc seems a bit lower. To put that in context, the probability of someone in good health dying of an actual SARs CoV 2 pneumonia (which is not what the HSE records as COVID-19) in the next year is about the same order as them dying in a road accident.

I took SARs 2 very serious in the beginning because I got H1N1-09 in 2009. Swine Flu. Very very nasty. If I had not be aware before hand of the potential risk I would have been one of the many 100K’s who ended up in hospital. Now something like H1N1-09 with SARs CoV 1 pathology. That was seriously scary. But it turned out in the end it was just a very nasty common cold corona-virus. So now I am doing serious prep for actual disaster, the very serious economic recession that hits by the end of the year. It will even worse than 1980/81. Which was far nastier than 2008/9.

As for masks I wear them when required purely out of respect from the poor sods working in places that require them. I’m not going to make their life difficult. No point. Its no different from the utterly pointless removing shoes belt etc at airport security. But I have noticed that putting on a proper N99 mask (which I got back in February) seems to seriously unsettle a lot of the smugger face covering wearers. I get the sense that a proper respirator mask highlights the utter futility of a wearing a thin piece of cloth. As supposed protection against airborne viral agents.


#3245

So, 200,000 americans die of a common cold each year… Wow. Who would have thought it


#3246

Stop panicking the public by selectively announcing numbers that they don’t understand

Don’t call a positive test a ‘case’, which it is not.

State the number of positive tests that have been triaged, only.

Give the number of positive tests as a % of overall tests

Educate on the CFR and IFR and by age, underlying conditions (CDC found only 6% had no underlying condition)

Educate on error rates, false positives and negatives and the ROC curve of the PCR instrument

Educate on cross-immunity, T-cell immunity

Roll-out cheapest therapies like Vit D, Zinc, blood plasma, HCQ

Give perspective with % hospitalisations and deaths from other causes, e,g. Flu, pneumonia, cancer)

Put an end to press conferences and TV medics

Resist the vested interests exploiting this crises (e.g. Media, Teachers, self-serving elements of medical profession, the HSE blob, big tech).

Make the lockdown voluntary

Go for herd immunity

Get back to work

End the panic


#3247

Good luck being the person to make that call!
The response in Ireland seems more or less in line with other Western countries - there are more extreme (e.g. NZ and Oz), and less extreme examples


#3248

Yes, its been shown that Gov response has been driven by apeing other gov responses.

Herd mentality vs. Herd immunity!

Our guys want a Jacinda-style pat on the head.

But facts don’t lie: Sweden has no ‘second peak’ with miniscule +ve tests.