Coronavirus 2020


It looks like that British guy caught it in Singapore. Imagine how many others must have caught it there, given it’s one of the busiest airports in the world. I think a guy also died now in Dubai. Another one of the busiest airports in the world.

Regarding the cruise ship. They are testing the most symptomatic people first. So it dropped from 33% of the first batch tested to 23% of those new people tested. Given this it’ll probably drop to under 10% overall as they go to the less and less affected. That’s pretty good news in my book. Looks like it’s less infectious than at first thought. Also, that would be an older demographic on that cruise ship so I would have expected quite a high infection rate.

The British doctor who is doing a running video series on this has a great new video out. He should be followed by everyone that’s very interested in this. Some of his earlier assumptions I didn’t agree with but I guess he was making best estimates. The current video goes into more detail on a specific case. It’s very interesting. A father passed it to a son, but the wife who was in the same hotel room, was not displaying symptoms, even 13 days after the husband did.
Both parents are above 60 years old. Also, 28 other close contacts didn’t display symptoms (at time of publishing the data anyway).
Again, this is leading me to believe it cannot be as infectious as at first thought. The information above also seems to be in alignment with the idea that it targets asian males more than females (of course we need much more information to confirm).


Unknown origin


And they only detected them because they decided to test all cases of pneumonia now for coronavirus. Also, three of them feel they might have gotten it while in Malaysia in January. Imagine the true numbers of cases in Malaysia then, it’s certainly not the official figure of 12 right now. They could well have flown through Kuala Lumpar and Singapore airports. KL being another one of the main global airports.


It is not uncommon for a person to become ill with a cold that is caused by a coronavirus and then catch it again about four months later.

This is because coronavirus antibodies do not last for a very long time.

Zhan Qingyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, said even people who have recovered may not be immune to the virus.

“For those patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of a relapse,” he said in a briefing on Friday. “The antibody will be generated; however, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long.”

This is not something we want doing the rounds with the usual wintertime coughs and coldd


The experts in the UK think that this is very unlikely. I think journalists around the world are sensationalising some of the story. Have a look at the headline below, which then contradicts some of the information from the UK experts.

I have read that the coronavirus actually doesn’t mutate too much. It’s possible to catch it in subsequent years if it mutates a good bit, but you’ll still have some immunity to it. Remember, they said that people that caught SARS might even have some immunity to this virus because it is slightly similar.

I believe the Chinese medical officials are stressing this also in China because some poor country people in China can be quite bad with hygiene and particularly if they feel they are no longer at threat themselves. They could end up spreading it to a lot of people. When they feel their lives could still be at stake they might try to be more hygienic and careful.


Here is the actual infection path chart for Singapore outbreak, as of yesterday.


Given President Xi’s very high profile national broadcast with the Minister of Health last week saying that the epidemic would peak in 7 to 10 days so dont be too surprised if the official statistics to start to level off in the next week to show that the authorities have it under control.

The official provincial case numbers outside Hubei make no sense. The distribution among the provinces fits no normal epidemiological model. The story out of Wuhan is that the attempts at treatment are over and they are now into civil lock down / soft martial law mode. The new “hospital” they made a big deal about building in a few days is actually a huge isolation building. TNo actual treatment facilities as of yesterday. There are many others as well being opened the last few days. Big conference centers and sports halls etc.

Nanjing is on full lockdown as are most of the big cities in the Pearl River area apart from Shanghai. Bejing is on defaco lockdown so this is not some simple flu epidemic scenario.

The strike of medical staff in HK hospitals seems to have worked. Lam folded and the border now is being shut. Two weeks after being told by the medical advice committee to do it immediately. I think the start of panic buying in supermarkets a few days ago probably had something to do with it as well. Probably the last nail in the coffin of Two Systems One Country.

Best source of hard science info out of China is these guys…

For actual news of whats going on inside China these guys, despite their obvious political angle, seem to be pretty good.

Chrome with Standard Chinese auto-translate seems to work reasonably well.


Everybody in China has been on self imposed quarantine for well over 2 weeks. I think that will do a lot to cause a decrease in the spread. For the last 3 weeks, anybody going out has been wearing a mask.

The paper that talked about the fact that it could be transmitted asymptomatically has been now shown to have worked on faulty evidence. It turns out that the Chinese lady was symptomatic and she was taking medicine to suppress the symptoms. That could potentially be very very positive. It doesn’t disprove asymptomatic transmission but at least we know that this is not a definite form of transmission now.

It’s spreading now a lot outside of China and particularly around major airport hubs. It didn’t take too long to explode in China from a few seed cases. I’d be surprised if the same doesn’t happen elsewhere.


This is a good paragraph from an article referenced earlier about Coronaviruses and reinfection

Exposure to the four endemic coronaviruses produces immunity that lasts longer than that to influenza, Webby said, but not permanent immunity. Like respiratory syncytial virus, which can re-infect adults who had it in childhood, coronavirus immunity wanes.
“Everyone, by the time they reach adulthood, should have some immunity to some coronavirus,” said Tim Sheahan, a coronavirus researcher at University of North Carolina’s Gillings School of Global Public Health. But because it doesn’t last, older people can get reinfected. The elderly also have a higher death rate from coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS, a pattern 2019-nCoV is following.
“There is some evidence that people can be reinfected with the four coronaviruses and that there is no long-lasting immunity,” Dr. Susan Kline, an infectious disease specialist at of the University of Minnesota. “Like rhinoviruses [which cause the common cold], you could be infected multiple times over your life.
You can mount an antibody response, but it wanes, so on subsequent exposure you don’t have protection.” Subsequent infections often produce milder illness, however.


Very good news indeed.


Those were pretty much the numbers used by the original HK Univ Med School epidemiological model more than two weeks ago. The one that said there 100K infected with maybe 15K/20K serious symptomatic when the official Chinese number was a few K. Their model was based on direct field evidence in Wuhan and presented in a press conference the moment they got back to HK.

Now this paper makes a sobering read…

Between 1/4 and 1/3 of those who ended up needing ICU treatment in this one Wuhan hospital were hospital health workers. These were people who serious professionals used to dealing with SARs and other serious infectious diseases.

The fact that Guangzhou is now on lockdown is a very bad sign. I dont take it as a preemptive action. I assume the rest of the other cities in the conurbation are in the same position. We are talking a population larger than France just for those cities.

Not sure of the most recent numbers but that area alone account for about 60% plus of the China manufactured supply chain exported to the West. Companies that outsourced all their manufacturing / supply chain to China, like Apple, must be very very worried by this stage. A few weeks of this and there goes a big chunk of a quarters revenue.


The results take approximately 24 hours.


Eyes need to be covered, may have been transmitted via an intermediate host - the endangered pangolin according to China, Cambridge not convinced


I think we now have to accept this has spread worldwide, and within about maybe 4 weeks this will become more and more apparent to more and more people, that things and life are changing in ways they may not have ever imagined.


I agree. The idea that this was not going to happen seems almost absurd. The good thing is that it isn’t as bad as it first looked when a lot more people were dying than recovering. This might have spread if just one or two people had left Wuhan/China with the illness. There could well be thousands of unknowingly infected people travelling around the world with this right now, there are at least hundreds.


Plenty of nightmarish videos making it out of China to see how they may be handling it in China.

One of the most disturbing is of a couple being loaded into a what looks like windowless metal box on the back of a pickup. Then the screams of shrill terror while the world passes by.

A lot more videos of people who resisting with all their might as they are dragged out of their homes and into vans. So they can’t be that sick at that moment. They resist perhaps because they don’t know or fear if they may not be coming back.


We need numbers of those dying of viral pneumonia now and we need stats on previous years asap.


Another cause for concern was that some patients who at first appeared mildly or moderately ill then took a turn for the worse several days or even a week into their illness. The median time from their first symptoms to when they became short of breath was five days; to hospitalization, seven days; and to severe breathing trouble, eight days. Experts say that pattern means patients must be carefully monitored, and it is not safe to assume that someone who seems to be doing well early on is out of the woods.


btw… This is a flu season and many sick now in Germany, France etc… Medical staff are probably scared what if new type come and add more severe state patients…

In East Poland some school was closed as 168 out of 263 were sick. We’ve experienced very strange weather recently from -5 to +13 and back to 0… very very strange…


Highly highly recommend a read of that. Expect a 3-5% fatality rate. Deaths taking 3 weeks to occur.