Coronavirus 2020


#3489

The entire conversation is surreal. The body of medical professions who were assembled to advise on how to manage the covid virus are being accused of advising the government on how to deal with the covid virus? What else would they be doing? Everything else is outside of their remit.


#3490

I’m not so sure, the media support the restrictions, what the average person thinks is not really known, I’m pretty sure opinions are far more diverse than what I see on TV/radio


#3491

Front page of today’s irish times would tend to imply that yes, the restrictions are indeed widely supported.


#3492

It turns out that there has been quite extensive investigation to find out what the average person thinks. Who would have thought?


#3493

Isn’t that the exact point, their remit is or should be public health not public health as threatened by covid?


#3494

This is exactly the sort of high emotionality that has us in a bad position. There simply isn’t this level of threat to life from Covid now - that one church would be filled with so many fatalities. And it’s arguable that there never was.


#3495

Anecdote alert, a work colleague of mine has a family member diagnosed with it over the weekend. So they were called by the HSE and they asked how bad are the symptoms (very mild. slight cough, sore throat, since gone) The person said thats great, and commented that their experience at the moment of calling positive results, is far far better than last spring when many were genuinely feeling ill. Matches up with the hospital stats currently too, just thought I’d share.
I can think of many reasons for that, bottom line I’m not so afraid of it, oh an only the one family member of 5 felt anyway sick at all, the rest are fine, though all others now waiting their own test results. They reckon it was caught in a pub…


#3496

All evidence shows that yes, there was a threat to life. Lombardia was experiencing a 3X increase in the normal death rate. The death rate dropped two weeks after the restrictions were put in place.


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31865-1/fulltext

If tens of thousands of people dying that would not otherwise be expected to die is not considered a threat to life, then I can’t imaging what could be.

Undoubtedly something has changed. It has to be one or more of the following:

  • The virus has become less lightly to kill, whether caused by the weather or the virus mutating;
  • Treatment has improved.
  • The type of people testing positive has changed.
  • The number of vulnerable people being infected is now significantly lower

The changing characteristics must be one or more of the above. It’s difficult to quantify in which proportions.

I’ll reiterate what I said earlier. The people of Ireland are willing to pay almost any price to ensure that they do not see what happened in Lombardia happen in Ireland.


#3497

Thats going to be a short argument, euromomo stats did show a significant rise in z-score in several countries, not least Italy but certainly not worst either


#3498

Coronavirus: Health experts join global anti-lockdown movement


#3499

You are technically correct. The best form of correct.

Italy as a country showed a significant rise in death rate, but not the worst that ever happened. Lombardia on the other hand experienced the worst that there are records available for.


#3500

And that a region such as Lombardia dragged the national z-score up reinforces just how bad it was there.


#3501

It seems there are many open questions about the responses back in March. Wouldn’t be that surprised if we see court cases for years to come once it all comes out in the wash. The blame game has probably already started behind closed doors.

You’ve barely heard the word ventilator in 5 months. Was the treatment administered in March/April correct and were people put on ventilators in error?

Were hospitals emptied and all manner of bugs, MRSA and Covid 19 etc transferred with patients from hospitals to nursing homes?

How many deaths in March/April in Italy or anywhere else have been tagged as Covid 19 when they may well have been anything else. The death rate among people without one or more comorbidities would suggest the tagging of deaths was a serious issue back in the Spring. The joke is the guy in Florida ravaged by a shark and ends up ‘dying of Covid 19’.

I heard the BBC earlier use the term ‘deaths where Covid 19 is mentioned on the death certificate’ when talking about deaths in Scotland. If only they, RTE and Sky etc were more measured back in March/April.


#3502

We are going to have to deal with covid for a long time yet, or ‘living with covid’ as the government have indicated.

A number of counties are in lockdown No 3 and the rates are going up. Simply put lockdowns don’t work but what could work is simple rules that everyone will follow.
Idiotic rules like restrictions (think gardai on the motorways) will only piss everyone off.
My own thoughts are everyone from 0 to 44 should be given a free holiday or a cruise for 3-4 weeks.

With basic screening for being a fattie or having a pre-existing conditions the figure could be brought down between 10 and 30 people. Id take my chances. Probably alcohol related risk would be higher


#3503

And again, this thinking is all a product of your high emotionality. There is no March Lombardia threat to Ireland now. To argue there is, while acknowledging there isn’t, is a form of Neuroticism.


#3504

I don’t see it as a short argument. There are dozens of factors you would have to adjust for, to apply Lombardia to differing countries in Europe.


#3505

We’re in bizarre territory now. A couple of days ago Drew Harris was worried about the policing by consent…and now you have Traffic Corp Superintendents gleefully crowing about harassing people. Because that’s what it is, harassment. There is no powers.

And you have Varadkar attacking Holohan 2 days ago but now Kite flying on further penalties.


#3506

I felt like shit for a few days in March. Exhausted, elevated resting heart rate.
Went to bed early, ran a high temp overnight, and that was it.

Couldn’t get a test.

Recently did an antibody test privately. Cost €75.
Results say I had covid and now have antibodies.

The knowledge leaves me a little more comfortable visiting elderly relatives.


#3507

This is a summary of things I’ve heard from people in healthcare.

The biggest improvements have been in triage and treatment - it is much easier to identify patients who are likely to recover and what their likely path to recovery is. As a result turnaround time is quicker and more time can be spent on patients in serious difficulty.

Very basic stuff about changing in and out of PPE, proper use of PPE and hospital sanitation have reduced the death rate in Hospital staff.

The issue with ventilators was that in the initial stages of the epidemic it was quickly realised that the virus was attacking the lungs. The only way that we know for sure for keeping airways clear is the ventilator. We also know that steroids can help but in this case there was no sure knowledge of whether and which steroids would work - that took about 3 months.

The fact that Remdesivir works has been a huge help as well.

Having these clear approaches takes a huge burden off staff and means that time can be given to decision making and care. It has always been the case that in critical medical emergencies (bombings etc) more people die than should simply because the system is overwhelmed. This could happen again if we pass a critical point when the system gets overwhelmed. Due to years of under-resource there is very little lee-way in the system. I suspect this was part of NPHETs reasoning behind their advice and I believe the politicians rejected it because it showed up their years of neglect. I don’t know whether hospitalisation rates have reduced or whether it’s just that we’re getting better at treating the people who end up in hospital.

None of the medical people I’ve talked to believe that the virus has changed. It is possible that virus load has a part to play in severity and that will have been reduced by social distancing, masks and fewer interactions - but nobody has actually detected any change in the virus.

Italy learnt from the Lombardy experience - a nation with a notorious disdain for authority (particularly in the South) has high levels of mask use and social distancing. Italians are very family oriented and families stay in touch all the time - they all know someone who has been affected and they all know someone who is vulnerable. You can see the same effect in rural Ireland where there is a much closer adherence to the rules compared to Dublin.


#3508

Where did you get that done.