Can’t anyone, anyone see or speak.
Was about to write this yesterday… left in draft:
Poland got covid deaths daily record today with 58, up from 29 yesterday…
New record today 75 and 3003 new cases.
Apparently there is almost none of Remdesivir left in stocks locally and very little globally as well.
I saw news last night and few dedicated hospitals are close to capacity with beds. Dedicated hospital in my hometown region got over 80 staff quarantined after infections.
End of summer, start of flu season and steady rise of covid after schools were open on 1.09.
Appreciate where youre coming from and I was fully supportive of the measures back in April based on the photos that youve posted further up the thread.
However clearly we know more now and the lockdown measures seem to me to now be disproportionate, again based on what we know now.
Further, this pandemic is another nail in the coffin of mainstream media. The absence of any balance to the public debate and the manner in which eminently reasonable people who have different viewpoints (based in evidence) have been shut down is striking. Personally I simply no longer believe the Irish Times. Plus there was another poll done on 98fm where there was only 8 percent support for the measures. I dont believe that either.
Im firmly of the view that we need to tailor our behaviours somewhat to counter the spread (and I dont want to get it), but Im not prepared to sacrifice our entire way of life to combat it. Not that its needed anyway in my view.
Finally the question thats nagging me the past few days is why the need to shut people down and ramp up the fear while also shutting down the economy? Do the people who’ve run the health service into the ground for years resulting in numbers dying needlessly without ever having acted, now suddenly care so much about the welfare of the ordinary Joe Soap that they are prepared to shut down everyrhing, the entire economy in pursuit of the common good? Why is every media outlet singing from the same hymn sheet? Is this really plausible?
Trump took all the remdesiver (for the usa).
Hydrocortisone, dexamethasone and methylprednisolone are as good for severe hospital cases only.
Images, are very powerful.
Here is another powerful image.
Except, it wasn’t from Italy, it was from a tragic event in 2013 but that does not matter, because they still have, as images, immense power, when used at the right moment.
…the problem is the photograph of an aircraft hangar filled with coffins is unrelated to COVID-19. The picture by news agency AFP was first published on October 5, 2013, following the sinking two days earlier of a boat carrying hundreds of African asylum-seekers off the Italian island of Lampedusa. The boat had left Libya 13 days before, carrying up to 500 people, according to survivors.
Powerful images. Used accordingly. Have powerful effects on people.
So powerful, that images can disable critical faculties in viewers, they can even motivate them to action and if they are served the correct image, at the right moment, to exact the requisite response and viewer outcome, there is essentially no limit to how much power may be invoked or how far the desired result may be driven.
I would expect nothing less than politics from the IT… POLLS, we all know what POLLS are used for… such a glaringly political driving headline from the IT, a narrative building hit-back against the lockdown faceoff and cat fight of the previous days, to even hang any argument on it, well it must be 2006 or something.
Image association: …oh look a picture of Tony, - Tony is thinking of leaving - man he looks pissed at his treatment, and he a saintly super hero who saved us all - we can’t loose him now when we need him most… blah blah blah.
In the WAR the IT is an enemy combatant but Ireland isn’t that kind of Republic, the Irish don’t actually have one anymore afaict, but I’m always open to correction…
You never read the article!
The article describes a, public available report produced by the department of health describing out a best effort to understand the public reaction to restrictions etc… I added a direct link to the report.
Had mild symptoms in late Feb (high temp, feverish, dry cough) and a few months later ended up having to go to A&E with serious chest pains, which turned out to be caused by inflammation of heart tissue - presumably as a result of the initial viral infection.
I’m in my early 30’s, had a clean bill of health prior to this, and was fairly active in terms of sports etc so it was a complete shock.
Still having chronic issues months later and going through process of visting consultants etc to follow up.
I don’t know if its been mentioned on the thread before or not, but it seems to be widely accepted in the medical profession now that many people who get Covid (mild/asymptomatic or otherwise) will end up with heart issues. The potential for people to have heart damage without even knowing it is quite scary.
Does this make any difference to peoples view on what’s appropriate in terms of public health measures, lockdowns and so on?
I agree that continual lockdown situations are not really going to work in the long-run, but going back to ‘normal’ with this virus on the loose seems a bit mad?
If you are lucky enough to have avoided it so far I would keep a low profile for a few months, hope for a vaccine, and don’t put yourself at risk of completely ruining your health.
It does on the face of it, but one thing is absolutely certain, one way or another the only end game here is herd immunity. Whether that is achieved with or without a vaccine is a big question and in answering that you have to consider that an effective acceptable vaccine might never happen. There was none for SARS, how many decades were spent looking for a HIV vaccine?
I have no doubt a few will be approved under EUA and through full trials especially in the US but if the effectiveness was say 50%, which is probable, how do the other 50% fare? Influenza vaccine efficacy varies each year between 30 and 70%.
The real issue is this, all the discourse, policy and ruinous restrictions are based on ‘until we get a vaccine’ but we have no certainty that one will arrive and there is no point in time where we can say ‘ok, there won’t be a vaccine, lets go with plan B’
Martin Feeley on TV last night stated herd immunity will take 20 years @ 600 cases a day.
If Michael Levitt is correct and herd immunity is achieved at 20% based on cross reactivity, T-Cell immunity and antibodies, considered with the WHO estimate that globally 10% have been infected, we could arrive at herd immunity in 6 months with 3000 cases a day.
Of course we could start to see some general availability of a vaccine by then so it’s back to the HSE who took 6 months to perform 1 million tests, could they vaccinate 3 million people by September 2021, we will still have twice weekly news briefings with NPHET on the 6.1 news?
Let it rip? no, but controlled spread will give absolute certainty, an end game.
I agree with your point re waiting for a vaccine that may never come or may only be partially effective. There seems to be a lot of optimism and encouraging signs re vaccine progress but there is no cast iron guarantee that any will be effective enough to completely eradicate it from society. So is best case scenario some kind of Swedish approach? where its allowed to bleed into the population at a relatively slow rate that allows the health services to manage, and economy & life largely to go on in some slightly subdued fashion? Not necessarily herd immunity but transmission slowed to a very low level which is manageable but could go on for years? Despite the obvious negative consequences for any of those unfortunate enough to get a bad dose.
The WHO estimate of 10% is conservative IMO, in an Irish context. My Wife had it, I was a bit off around the sametime, one friend went to his GP in January and was placed on oxygen in the surgery, his wife had flu like symptoms a few days later, other friends with similar stories and six of us were in a pub on Saturday, all of us have had it but yet masks, screens, told we had to leave by a certain time, ASTI balloting for strike, Boyd Barret et al screaming we borrow another couple of billion for PUP, HSE burning a billion a year in PPE, cancer screening with a serious deficit that is still rising. It’s madness.
It did, during the summer when people were in their gardens and windows were open, sitting outside a pub was preferred. Transmission is rising across Europe as temperatures fall and IMO it’s because it is airborne, how else would so many health professionals catch it when they would have the highest prevalence of infection control training and knowledge, it’s because masks don’t matter if you spend hours in a room with several patients exhaling the virus, the summer was a lost opportunity.
When and where is the new ICU capacity coming online?
What other measures have the gov fast tracked since March?
What else have they done to reduce the burden of the winter sick season?
What did I miss?
Or, perhaps the inference is all restriction should have been turned off for the summer months (with maybe exceptions for super vulnerable, on doctors advice), once the “curve was flattened” and then resume with an abundance of caution coming into winter.
I’d generally agree with what you’ve written. What I’d like to comment though is that the Swedish model is actually not that different than what is going on in Ireland.
The recommendations in Sweden are largely the same as what is in Ireland.
Naturally though, there is a different legal/constitutional setup in Sweden. People seem to be deliberately misinterpreting the meaning of ‘guidelines’ in the Swedish legal system.
“You do not have to do exactly as the guidelines say. However, if you decide to do something differently, you must be able to show that you are complying with the binding legislation. The Public Health Agency of Sweden has produced general guidelines on COVID-19 and also on swimming facilities and indoor noise.”
Now, yes. But Holohan is fearmongering about ‘no christmas’ and the public mood will swing, Paul Reid and the IMNO will fret about capacity in ICU and trolley numbers but that’s been the case for a decade.
Level 4/5 on the way in the next 3 weeks, Martin will bottle it.
The IMF or equivalent
Suicide to it’s highest prevalence in the states history
Dole queues stretching from Kinsale to the giants causeway and nowhere to emigrate
Educational attainment ?
National Debt ?
Marginal income tax rates ?
Pension fund theft again ?
Measles outbreaks ?
Pascal is really letting us down.
There are Big Players behind this group. Fingers and toes crossed.
I think he is not fearmongering; I think he is genuinely afraid, and that fear is coming through.
He has one the one hand, a very real risk of things spiraling out of control. There is a real risk of things going towards the Bergomo hospital scenario. The probability of this happening is quite low. It is a possibility though.
On the other hand, he has all the risks you have outlined for 2022. I don’t know how to quantify the probability of this scenario happening. But it is a very real possibility.
There is not enough reliable information to say with a high degree of confidence which decisions will be best long term. No matter what is done it will be a calculate gamble. And a gamble with unknown odds at this time.
None of the 2022 risks are his, measles maybe. He told Martin/Leo and Stephen this Monday morning about the ramifications of straight to level 5 - that is a political matter. If he was considering them why is cancer screening planned for ‘up to 95% restoration’ in the winter plan when the HSE have a blank cheque, literally.
Holohan has an asymmetrical risk, no covid deaths and he’s smelling of roses even if the HSE are closing hundreds of wards in 2022 and USC is doubled.