Coronavirus 2020


#3529

Isn’t Levitt the fella who said it would burn out in Ireland last two weeks of May, and in August said there would be no second wave in Ireland? Why do we listen to him now when he’s been consistently wrong?


#3530

Who has been right most of the time? Not all the time but in general? Imperial college, no. McConkey and 120,000 deaths by now, no. Gerry Killeen and Czechia with a 14 day incidence of 373 as a relevant role model for ‘Zero-covid’, no.

Cross reactive immunity isn’t testable in individuals, and T-cell immunity testing is far more complicated that PCR so it’s not scale-able, both have solid academic foundations.

What if the true herd immunity percentage is double or treble that 40%, 60%, the end game is the same it just takes 12-18 months but still knowing we are getting to a solution and maybe will have an economy to provide for a health service in the coming decade.


#3531

At some point, the value of a statistical life (VSL) will need to be discussed. I disagree with the degree of the restrictions, but you could argue that the economic burden isn’t yet too great using that equation.


#3532

Yes he’s wrong the same amount of times as McConkey and those other ones you mention. Basically none of them really now and are taking educated and less educated guesses / specualtion. Won’t be until some time next year when we start getting the properly researched information. So for moment I am ignoring the likes of Levitt, McConkey, Morgan, the zero coviders et al. Have a feeling the people who are developing knowledge of this thing are working quietly away somewhere, and not on the Pat Kenny show every second day.


#3533


Richard Grenell @RichardGrenell

What you never hear from CNN and the DC media crowd is that 17 US intelligence agencies issued a rare public statement making clear that Covid 19 started in China. And the secret Chinese Communist ways made the virus spread worse. This is from US intelligence agencies.

Src: https://twitter.com/RichardGrenell/status/1314209280535400454


#3534

US government agencies value a life at $10 million.


#3535

Yes, dead people don’t spend or consume once the funeral is over.
Live people, even if they’re at death’s door in a nursing home are still consumers, economists are great at monetising everything.
I’m surprised they don’t put a value on the ashes.


#3536

Yes, it does. But if you read up on VSL, you’d realise it is quite theoretical, with obvious practical flaws. And it ignores the value of our civil liberties.

The $10m is widely believed to be too high. Figure would be lower again in Ireland. With something like Covid, we are dealing with too many unknown and omitted variables for VSL to be deployed just now. If no vaccine is discovered and if it lingers next year, then a version of this could be used to inform policy in the future.

Much more robust data is required. Firing the first googled link from a poorly written article doesn’t aid your case.


#3537

If you read through everything I’ve written you will see I’m not really trying to make a case. I only replied to a question which was ‘why are more people not annoyed with the current restrictions?’. And the answer is that people are willing to pay almost any price not to see what happened in Lombardia happen in Ireland.


#3538

Maybe this goes some way toward answering the question ‘why’?


#3539

Live people, even if they’re at death’s door in a nursing home are still consumers, economists are great at monetising everything.
I’m surprised they don’t put a value on the ashes.

Bonemeal is about €1.15 /kg. The value is mainly in the phosphate content, so given that bone is about 70% mineral and cremation removes the protein and water, say €1.65/kg.

:grinning:


#3540

Just saw the latest daily case figures. Dublin continuing to steady or even drop while the regions ramp up. Would be very hard to justify moving Dublin up the levels without waiting a few more weeks at least.

Wednesday figures for Dublin for last four weeks: 136, 103, 189, 218.
Tuesday figures for Dublin for last four weeks: 218, 174, 154, 111.
Thursday figures for Dublin for last four weeks: 119, 167, 170, 91.
(*by date order - left to right i.e 91 is today’s figure)

Yes, it’s only a snapshot in time but it flies in the face of “exponential growth in Dublin” scare stories like one I saw somewhere earlier (RTE or the Irish Times, I think.)


#3541

NPHET created a report which shows wide spread support for the current restrictions.This report was commented on by the Irish Times. You are implying that it is because the stock price of the nasdaq has risen. Are you saying

  • that these tech giants infiltrated NPHET and created the fraudulent report?
  • The report’s authors were infiltrated by the tech billionaires and created a fraudulent report and forwarded it to NPHET?
  • The people who the author’s contacted and polled were infiltrated by the billionaires and supplied fraudulent information to the authors of the report?
  • The people polled support the current restrictions because the NASDAQ has gone nuts?

#3542

I am not sure why people don’t understand that from “we are fine” to “we are heading towards a cliff” is a very short way during a pandemic…

Last 30 days in Poland with obligatory masks in shops and schools which were often not obeyed. Moreover very strange testing policy - refusing to test until 4 symptoms are present.

From Saturday whole country will become zone yellow with more restrictions like masks obligatory on streets. Few hospitals in big cities openly tells they struggle with space for sick and in general medical professions are worried about delivering care for non Covid cases especially in relation to protecting them from getting infected.

Daily confirmed cases:


Daily deaths:

There was long press conference when I was working today, our PM said something about increase of enforcement for mask wearing and mention how dangerously stupid is to deny COVID exists. I think they try not to shut down shops, schools and restaurants as long as they can, but as mentioned by officials there are no big clusters, infections are widespread. They did something like 43k tests with almost 10% positives.
There are 171k people self quarantined with suspected COVID at the moment.

Ireland seems to head towards same wrong direction like rest of Europe really:


#3543

Completely untrue…shockingly misleading (and dangerous) reporting from the national broadcaster…

https://twitter.com/eoinneylon/status/1314160927017705472


#3544

The big tech stocks were driven high due to a massive gamble by a Japanese investment bank named Softbank.

They bought billions worth of options contracts consisting of deeeep OTM calls, forcing the Market Makers to cover the positions with actual stock, this created a demand for those stocks followed by more call buying and a feedback loop was formed. It ran from Spring until the start of September.

It has nothing to do with the company fundamentals, market share, covid 19 profit making or anything of the like.

Softbank made $4Bn in profit, but lost about $7Bn from their market capitalisation, as investors were non too impressed with SoftBank acting like a degenerate gambler.


#3545

Softbanks biggest mistake was WeWork - that hammered it more than any market moralising (the stock market never moralises unless it believes there will be a public backlash)


#3546

True that, I didn’t mean the stock market was moralising, it was your average Joe in Japan losing faith in SoftBanks ability to manage their money that is causing their share price issues.


#3547

Yet another Prof of Biochemistry opining about Public Health/Virology/Infectious disease issues :roll_eyes:


#3548

“Move past the rage” man, trust RTE