I think Level 5, as it stands, is dead in the water already. As already referred to above, the Government have sabotaged the whole thing by admitting that the best we can hope for - after six weeks of this - is to get back to where we are at today (i.e before midnight tomorrow.) Which is still massively restrictive.
The ban on indoor dining and drinking for example must have reduced “interactions” by millions over the last four weeks and yet - it hardly made a difference. The low hanging fruit has been well and truly picked at this stage
I think any dramatic change in direction will be driven by international events rather than by anything domestic. (WHO might throw them a “get out of jail card”.)
It’s also possible this move by MM was to head off Lord Varadkar’s courting the media for some more of his trademark gaslighting and manoeuvring, MM would surely have spotted the Bertie2.0 in him, having been so politically involved with Bertie 1.0 for so long.
but the general consensus among Irish political commentators is that one of his biggest downfalls is his constant dithering. A quick Google search of the words ‘Micheál Martin’ and ‘indecisive’ brings up 87,500 hits. Enough said.
I wonder if Holohan will be paraphrasing this on the 6.1 news in 2022, explaining why we are at level 3.14159 and still can’t go to Spain on holidays.
Therefore, if the Covid-19 vaccine is 75% effective – meaning that 75% of those vaccinated become immune – then we would actually only protect 56% of that target population (75% of 75%). This would not be enough to stop the virus circulating. Almost half of our highest risk group would remain susceptible, and we won’t know who they are. Relaxing social distancing rules when facing those risks seems a bit like Russian roulette.
Now let’s look at people younger than 65 in medical risk groups. In a good year, the UK vaccinates 50% of them against flu. That means just over a third of them are going to be protected (50% of 75%). Just to make matters worse, regulators such as the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency have said that they would accept a 50% lower level for efficacy for candidate Covid-19 vaccines. If that efficacy level is fulfilled, we have to multiply coverage by 50% efficacy, not 75%, and suddenly it all gets more concerning.
Therefore, the rise in cases is a known expected and desired outcome surely. An actual positive, not a negative. Compounded by the false positives of PCR process used as a test, which I’ve seen stated to range from anything to 20-84%, again;
WHO to believe?
What to believe?
In simple terms is The Thing closer to flu or even common cold.
Is this where things stand?
Shutting down a nation once more to eradicate something that might be no more deadly than the common cold.
Shutting down family relations. Dividing and further isolationing people at a time when we are naturally on average more vulnerable and dependant on each other due to the predictable seasonal hardships.
Did Trump pull a King Canute and now the rest of us are living in the counter move?
Generic Irish Times Southsider raises questions but has no answers other than ‘be patient’
“So I can see my mother in the supermarket but I can’t visit her in her garden?” “So they’re closing pubs but not the airports?” “Answers on a postcard.” “Only in Ireland . .
It’s about five minutes since Tony Holohan and his deputies were national treasures. Now to judge from public commentary, they are merely a small unrepresentative group of doctors who are only part of the response and don’t get the big picture.