Coronavirus 2020

coronavirus

#3809

Boots!


#3810

What do pinsters think of what Robert F. Kennedy, Jr has to say?

I asked myself many of the same questions that Mr. Kennedy raises.

There are a few dilemmas however about civic public protest that Mr. Kennedy suggests.


#3811

why are we being asked to wear a mask?
People are being asked to wear a mask exactly because there isn’t a vaccine. To slow down transmission.
what is the difference between coronavirus and TB?
TB has a vaccine, coronavirus doesn’t.
where exactly did coronavirus come from?
Good question, no definite answer.

He starts by hypothesising that current government events are similar to Nazi Germany - installing fear, etc. Then goes on to say that government and technocrats are happy to see a divided, fighting public. Seems like a contradiction


#3812

where exactly did coronavirus come from?

2 weeks ago (Oct 8th)…waiting to approve who can come in to investigate.

Next question…can we trust the WHO’s investigations? Are there other investigations?

The point about fear being historically used as a tool by authoritarian regimes to undermine freedoms and the democratic processes was a good general point.

Now during a global pandemic, some level of fear might be justified.

What is the contradiction with the “Government and technocrats” and the “divided, fighting public”?
I’m not sure I fully understand your point.


#3813

In Australia covid was #24 on the cause of deaths in state of Victoria last month. Did they ever lock the place down for the 23 causes higher on the list? Not on your nelly.
In Ireland, are suicides being signed off as covid deaths?


#3814

At the finish of the Giro d’Italia cycle race outside Milan crowds line the route almost like ‘normal’

At the F1 race down in the Algarve today up to 27,000 people are allowed in to the stands.

Both are outdoor events, but just show that life is going on elsewhere in Europe these days.


#3815

Can any pinster un paywall this.


#3816

Much of the commentary by civic, political and other authorities is a double cause for concern. Firstly, it probably is a manifestation of their own lack of understanding of Covid realities . Secondly, it ramps up the panic factor in the community; e.g., referring to the Spanish Arch incident as having the potential of an atomic bomb is reckless and irresponsible.

Similarly irresponsible and reckless is the use of national airwaves to advise citizens to treat their nearest and dearest and best friends as their worst enemies. This is hardly appropriate advice to young people who are already very apprehensive and struggling. Equally irresponsible is the HSE reporting that the ICUs in four of Dublin’s six major hospitals were overwhelmed when the total number of Covid-19 patients in the four ICUs was 12, less than each had on many occasions during the spring peak. At this time of year one would expect that number of ‘flu patients in ICU.

Dr Martin Feeley’s view that coronavirus is ‘much less severe’ than the flu for most people and that restrictions were no longer justified caused a furore.

Dr [Martin Feeley](javascript:window.parent.actionEventData({$contentId:“7.1213540”, $action:“view”, $target:“work”})) stepped down from his post as clinical director of Dublin Midlands [Hospital](javascript:window.parent.actionEventData({$contentId:“7.1213540”, $action:“view”, $target:“work”})) Group on September 15th

Media commentary also serves to promote and perpetuate the scaremongering with continued newscast leading with daily case numbers. The vast majority of whom are totally unaffected by the viral presence and the only consequence of which is a positive; i.e., immunity for them and added safety for their at-risk relatives and friends. The two principle scare tactic weapons are “Cases” and “Mortality”.

The ‘Cases’ Enigma

What is a “case”? Up to very recently when discussing infective respiratory illness and in particular influenza a “case” was an individual who was diagnosed clinically (by doctors), i.e., based on symptoms and clinical examination. Never before were asymptomatic individuals tested for the ‘flu virus. The present practice of labelling completely asymptomatic laboratory test positive individuals as “cases” is a radical development. The use of this data for policy decisions is seriously questionable.

We can only assume that Nphet have convinced themselves and Government that there is a vaccine around the corner and that the problem will go away - as did smallpox

This is best illustrated by “case” data; up to March 23rd, 26 per cent of “cases” were admitted to hospital and 3.4 per cent to ICU. As more testing was introduced these numbers gradually reduced; on 16th April the numbers were 16.3 per cent and 2.3 per cent and on 28th April were 13.5 per cent and 1.8 per cent. For the two weeks to October 17th, of almost 12,000 “cases” 2.5 per cent were admitted to hospital and 0.2 per cent to ICU, about 10 per cent and 6 per cent respectively, of early pandemic numbers. Treating “case” data from then and now as similar is simply ludicrous. As succinctly stated by the Tánaiste, the only meaningful cast iron metrics of the disease situation is the number admitted to hospital, admitted to ICU and Covid-19 deaths. This is all that is needed to indicate local disease status and help determine the local strategy including the local acute hospital.

Covid-19 mortality

In early March there were predictions of Covid-19 deaths in excess of 80,000 for the Republic of Ireland. The World Health Organization Bulletin on October 15th 2020 published a report by the highly respected Stanford research expert Dr J Ioannidis which reports an overall Case Fatality Rate of 0.27 per cent. This is based on antibody studies from around the world. Furthermore, the WHO official, Dr Mark Ryan recently stated that at the WHO’s best guess about 10 per cent of the world population, 750 million have been infected with Covid-19; the WHO estimates 1.04 million have died from C-19; this makes a mortality of 0.1386 per cent. Strictly, this should be called the Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR).

Related

The Taoiseach has passed on the Nphet message that if we behave ourselves we can have Christmas; the sad reality is that there actually is no Santa Claus

Rather than speculate as in March we can now be confident that mortality at worst will be 10 per cent of the March prediction. Yet we appear to be using the same modelling process which created the March prediction which was out by 1000 per cent (yes, a thousand). Unfortunately, it’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled (attributed to Mark Twain)

Vaccine and Christmas

We can only assume that Nphet have convinced themselves and Government that there is a vaccine around the corner and that the problem will go away as did smallpox. The reality is likely to be very different. There have been a couple of vaccine false dawns but a vaccine is a definite possibility; however, when will it be available ? For how many ? And most importantly, what will be its efficacy ? The reality of respiratory virus vaccines is that they are rarely more than 50 per cent effective. This leads to a question the answer to which dictates strategy. Are we happy to continue with the present war time curfews and restrictions for six, nine, twelve or more months in the hope of a vaccine arriving with the potential of reducing the mortality from 0.25 per cent to 0.125 per cent ?

European countries, many with much higher rates of infection than Ireland, are not going to lockdown

The Taoiseach has passed on the Nphet message that if we behave ourselves we can have Christmas; the sad reality is that there actually is no Santa Claus and even more sadly not even Nphet can restore the jobs, pay the mortgages, open the small businesses or restore the physical, mental and social wellbeing of society; ironically this is the role of Public Health Care!

The rationale for lockdown

Projects fail for many reasons, a principle one being the setting of unrealistic goals. The accepted world scientific opinion is that this virus cannot be eradicated once established. That it could be eradicated in the Republic of Ireland or the Island of Ireland is about as unrealistic as goals can get.

The WHO has stated that lockdown does not work; if you want different results than what you’re getting, you have to try different approaches. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results (Einstein, apparently). European countries, many with much higher rates of infection than Ireland, are not going to lockdown. The German Chancellor has ruled out National lockdown and adopts a local or regional approach.

The new inquiries would highlight potential sources of infection, and help to identify people at risk because of the locations in which they are moving about in the community. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP

“Life is not a video game which we can freeze-frame and restart when a vaccine arrives. All living is being suspended but unfortunately all life time is passing even for those with six months or a year to live with or without Covid-19.” File photograph: Paul Faith/AFP

What precipitated lockdown at this particular time is a complete mystery. I use Dublin data as it had the highest pro rata incidence during March and April. The number admitted to hospital in Dublin increased slightly over the past 4 weeks but the number in ICUs has not changed, when the average total number in Dublin ICUs was 13; compare this to the average total number of Covid-19 patients in these ICUs for each of the 7 days from 8th- 13th April which was 78, i.e., occupancy is now 16 per cent of what it was. How this justifies pressing the panic button needs to be explained, and now!

Life is not a video game which we can freeze-frame and restart when a vaccine arrives. All living is being suspended but unfortunately all life time is passing even for those with six months or a year to live with or without Covid-19.

Finally, there is one significant implication the present strategy which is in the “Appalling Vista” category. Apologies for going back to 2017-18 ‘flu season but, the HSE published (December 2018) the recorded data which showed a mortality (CFR) of 2.14 per cent; that is almost 10-fold higher than for Covid-19. Undoubtedly, this is an overestimate but there was a vaccine.

So, the question is this; whenever there is influenza with a similar virulence to 2017-18 (every 5-10 years) or very severe (every 40-50 years) are we going to lock down the country for 6 months including schools as the children will be chief vectors? The implications for society and the health service don’t bear thinking. It really is time for a mature discussion on the realities of life and nature.


#3817

With Feeley’s piece above, I make that seven articles in the Irish Times over the weekend either critical or heavily critical of current Government / Lockdown policy. There was nothing remotely like this back in March/April…




#3818

You missed one from yesterday.

I’m sure there are others.


#3819

Thanks DB. Can you work your paywall magic on this one also?


#3820

Might soon use up my quota. just realised that is was published last month.

The senior Health Service Executive doctor who resigned from his post days after he criticised “draconian” anti-Covid-19 restrictions has insisted that we must “stop scaring the nation” and encourage personal choice.

Dr Martin Feeley, who was the clinical director of Dublin Midlands Hospital Group, which includes the State’s biggest hospitals, resigned with immediate effect in mid-September.

Writing in today’s Irish Times, Dr Feeley said the number of people who have so far died of Covid-19 in Europe, up to August 10th, stood at 182,639, “slightly above the number who died three years ago as a result of flu (152,000)”.

The number of patients who died in Europe from the 1917-1918 Spanish flu was about 2.64 million – proportionately, this would be equivalent to about 7.4 million deaths of today’s European population.

“It is not for want of good reason that deaths are now referred to as Covid-19-associated deaths,” he writes, adding that 88 per cent of a group of New York patients had “more than one underlying condition”.


#3821

Corona 19 has apparently cured the flu, pneumonia and the common cold. It’s a remarkable virus. Or could it be that all influenza cases are now labelled as “Covid 19” to justify the lockdowns, the destruction of the economy and the endless fearporn. :whistle:
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/has-covid-killed-off-the-flu/ar-BB1amyXs


#3822

I missed this one from Friday…

Almost three months later, in the second week of June, as exhausted citizens were still finding their feet during a painfully slow and therefore divisive economic reopening, Holohan went on RTÉ radio to declare that the State would not resort to lockdown again to fight a second wave.

Second wave

“I wouldn’t be anticipating at this point in time that we would be moving back to blanket closures in the way we did in March,” he said. “If a resurgence of the disease happened or a second wave, we would know what specific measures to take, having done our work proactively.”

Four months later, and it seems lockdowns are not just a part of the plan. They are the plan.


#3823

I give you the gimp for trade


#3824

This group of party goers wer probably caught literally “with their pants down”


#3825

Oh look, shock horror just like Wales imagine that… playing everyone off each other.

For example, Rouge retailer Vs the poor complaint retailer (so unfair), rinse and repeat “Mask Wearer” Vs Naked Face Extremist, meanwhile do not look at the Goombeen enablers.

What they can’t call it is a resistance to their authority from the commercial sector and a fracturing of the grip of the terror spell.

So they do the usual, demonisation and divide and conquer.

ROGUE non-essential retailers who have stayed open despite the country moving to Level 5 of Covid restrictions face prosecution as gardaí prepare a clampdown.

Also, supermarkets selling non-essential items like clothes and toys also face enforcement action.

Nice to see the Rouge Picnicker batting for the Menace as usual, gaslighitng the nation. Never misses a chance. Excellent corporal.


#3826

The gardai have very little power to close businesses. Plus the way it is being used makes any guidelines to be legally challenged. How many fines have been issued based on the lvl5 regulations??


#3827

Indeed, what does “enforcement action” mean, if they mean “arrests” then why not use the words “arrests”, otherwise it’s marketing halloween style, or a cont’d Tyranny Larp by Leo or signalling of more boot to come.

Any arrests made at protests are most likely made on existing public order grounds (think G’OD), but reporting the two events in one headline, is a great way to conflate and confuse, to instil trepidation and fear in readers minds, especially if they had a notion of trying to enforce their own inalienable freedoms by well, being free about their business.

On that note. I overheard a lady garda exclaim to a few younger people (key to the house age)… “I’ll arrest you if you want to be cheeky”, followed up by her side kick yelling something about “public order act… blah blah blah”, but the young ones had so quickly complied with her request to move before she or her side kick started barking at them, that they probably only heard even the half of it, while I remained in earshot all the time. Another fine example of the quality bedside manner we’ve come to know and respect from an Garda once more on full display on the eve of Terror Level 5 in Dublins Fear City.

Did anyone look at the extended legislation voted in, I think a few nights ago?


#3828

10 data~based errors that have underpinned the response to the pandemic…