Government may ask people to limit close contacts over Christmas
Archived link: https://archive.is/h5FvE
Archived link: https://archive.is/h5FvE
… Good track and trace systems essential before we ease restrictions
An infectious diseases and internal medicine physician in St James’s Hospital said that moving rapidly without having “really, really good systems in place to manage cases and identify contacts” could result in another rapid rise in Covid-19 cases.
Dr Clíona Ní Cheallaigh said she could not see Level 2 being feasible in December with the current levels of community transmission, but added that maybe moving some restrictions and allowing people to travel outside their counties could be possible.
Another option, she said, would be religious services being held in a well ventilated church with people wearing masks or holding services outdoors.
Ah, still quoting press releases I see…
I remember you making a big deal a few months ago about some press release mentioning 200K “deaths” from COVID in the US when the actual official statistics (from the same source) only show about 70K primary cause deaths.
Lets have a look at them now…
Well we are up to almost 100K official primary cause deaths which when properly normalized in a few years time once the full data has been fully reviewed will probably get us to around 70K (maybe) actual novel severe pneumonia deaths from an active SARs CoV 2 infection so far. So very much still in H1N1-09 territory regarding IFR and CFR of cases in US. When you actually read the published post epidemic survey literature a few years later. The ones with the full normalized excess deaths statistics. Not the initial partial preliminary data.
Here is some other math you dont seem to know.
The primary test used to determine if someone has “COVID” in the US is the RT/PCR test. A molecular test. Not an antigen or antibody test. For people with an active SARs CoV 2 infection the detection rate during the course of a 10/15 day infection cycle is at best 50%. During almost half the infection cycle its 20% to 0%. First few days its zero. Yes zero.
So a false negative rate of at least 50%.
Even with a sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 99% (which the test only gets in controlled scenario calibration tests, much worse in real world high load labs) as there is a difference of about an order of magnitude between the error rate and the current active infection prevalence in the test population at least 90% of the positives are false positives. Thats because of this thing called mathematics. I posted the relevant papers showing the math a while ago.
Do a second test and due to the high false negative rate the false positives are still 70%. In order to get the false positive rate down to 5% you would have to run the RT/PCR test at least 4 times. Which by that stage has reduced the percentage of the true positives detected to about 6% of the original infected population sample.
So a medical placebo diagnostic test, mathematically speaking.
So unless someone tests positive for an antigen and antibody test too (which have their own cumulative error rates) the probability that someone who is classified as COVID in those official statistics based purely on a RT/PCR tests actually has / had any kind of SARs Cov2 infection is somewhere below 20%. (There are a bunch of other factors that impact this result, forcing lower).
The actual SARs CoV2 epidemic ended in June. As understood by epidemiology. What you have now is a classic “case-demic” which is just a large number of “positives” tests with very few actually admitted to ICU’s with a severe viral pneumonia caused by SARs CoV 2.
Where the mathematical illiteracy of most is being used by the few to save their political skins and put off the day of reckoning for their catastrophic incompetence.
Lets have a quick look at the current numbers in the standard clinical risk calculator for pneumonia (PSI/PORT) used in ER’s in the US…
Yeup, pretty much the same kind of numbers as last year when it comes to actual medical risk of severe pneumonia from influenza and human-corona viruses. Seems SARs CoV 2 really has not moved the needle much. In fact if you did the full population probability risk profile at the moment SARs CoV 2 still rates lower than 229E and OC43 due to their greater prevalence. And still lower than Influenza A (especially for people under 55). Which seem to be mostly the H1N1 and H3N2 strains this year so far.
So there aint no epidemic no more. Just a case of a very convenient mass hysteria. Convenient for both the media, the political classes, and the medical bureaucrats whose very deliberate politically motivated malfeasance with the official medical statistic (with SARs CoV 1’s I.F.R) started this whole sorry mess.
When this is all over I want to hear the full story of why the vastly overstated IFR for the SARs CoV 1 outbreak in 2003 has never once been publicly flagged by any of those so called “experts” who caused this catastrophe. Looks like a coverup to me. Because without that vastly overstated IFR there would have been no plausible trigger for the panic in March which started the lockdown cascade.
MANCHESTER STANDS UP!!! THIS ENDS WHEN WE ALL SAY NO!!! FILMED 2DAY!
8:44 PM · Nov 8, 2020
Covid-19: Irish abroad should abandon plans to come home for Christmas, Holohan says
Medical officer rules out festive international travel even on compassionate grounds
Irish people living abroad should not plan to travel home for Christmas due to the risk of importing Covid-19, chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan has advised.
Christmas visits home will be regarded as non-essential travel and are not recommended, he said.
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar had earlier on Thursday advised people intending to come home from abroad for Christmas not to book flights “at the moment” due to the uncertainty from the pandemic.
However, Dr Holohan went further, bluntly ruling out such Christmas travel even on compassionate grounds.
“Travel that would normally happen at Christmas would have to be regarded as non-essential this Christmas,” he told a briefing by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) on Thursday evening.
Expressing concern about high rates of the virus in most European countries, he said the reimportation of cases through foreign travel was one of the most significant risks the State faced.
“People potentially coming back for the Christmas period are experiencing a much higher level of infection. That will be one of the most significant risks for us if we make the progress we hope to make.”
‘Things will be different’
He also warned that “things are going to be different this Christmas” and it was “too early” for people to be making plans for the festive season.
Large-scale social events involving alcohol and other activities that would happen in a “normal” Christmas, such as office parties and large family get-togethers, “are not going to be possible”, he warned.
With case numbers dropping by half in the past fortnight, the State has the fastest declining incidence of Covid-19 in Europe.
Read full text here: https://archive.is/G5WJ8
How blind are the Irish public and media that they can’t read through Holohan. A public servant with no accountability to the social and economic consequences, to his income or pension. Basically no downside to a ‘Zero-Covid’ strategy. Remember he called for mandatory quarantine earlier this year.
Something extremely bogus is going on. Was tested for covid four times today. Two tests came back negative, two came back positive. Same machine, same test, same nurse. Rapid antigen test from BD.
5:47 AM · Nov 13, 2020
59.4K Retweets 17.6K Quote Tweets 231.7K Likes
The British Medical Journal aren’t pulling any punches here. Are we starting to see the preamble to the beginning of the end?
“Science is being suppressed for political and financial gain. Covid-19 has unleashed state
corruption on a grand scale, and it is harmful to public health.1 Politicians and industry are responsible for this opportunistic embezzlement.”
Just over three weeks into Level 5 - and guess what? It’s stalled and the numbers are rising again - as I kind of predicted in this post at the beginning of Lockdown 2.0. Tony says "we’re faltering…"
Wow. Big turnaround, there’s been a few voices in the wilderness, who have faced the consequences of being apostates, but in the past few days I have seen a surprising number of tweets etc. all pushing back on the narrative O.o
Elon Musk re his test https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1327125840040169472
Elon also tweeting that over 40 cycles is not reliable ( the whole purpose of PCR is to amplify even miniscule remnants of material) I think we do 40-45 cycles here?
Thread suggests COVID is now endemic not epidemic.
Plus misc. others. But BMJ… surprising!
I had a quick skim over the BMJ article and to me it appears to be more against the political rush to push out a vaccine before it is fully tested and the fact that several research papers are showing that COVID id “racist” and is affecting certain groups of people as opposed to the general population. The BBC have since reported those findings.
They do not appear to be saying that the government handling and overreaction is an issue, more to do with stifling opinions that “do not fit the agenda”.
Very true Kamran. It would be bad to stretch the data to fit a mindset
Women treat fewer patients per year than male doctors in the most common departments such as general surgery, trauma, cardiology and paediatrics, scientists said.
The research, published in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine (JRSM), found that on average, male consultants completed 160 more episodes of care each year than their female colleagues.
Dr Kamran Abbasi, editor of the JRSM, denied that the data revealed men were better doctors than women.
“They do, however, highlight potential differences in the way medical careers develop for men and women in our health service,” he said.
“It will be fascinating to explore the underlying reasons for this difference in productivity. Does it mean less is more?”
I am terrified by patient reports from polish hospitals, in many places totally unprepared and unwilling to work with covid patients crews are neglecting patients e.g. dead people left over on a bed with other patients overnight from 1AM till around 10AM or people left alone on wards without doctor for few days. Yet government is busy in “keeping power” so they started new drama with EU about money, at same time they gave some “artists” up to 150k€ of support as they can’t perform during semi lockdown.
Moreover they’ve joined the gang of “no tests no sick”, they refuse to test people and there are obvious statistic manipulations to avoid full lockdown, which could result in mayhem and massive strikes. I am pretty sure there are extreme pressures to open shopping centres prior to Xmas.
Not sure if I mention it before, but my wife lost her sense of smell and got overall mild, but long infection for over two weeks. She said today she started to feel the taste of the breakfast this morning. I’ve got cough on and off for few weeks. My kid got high fever just 1 day after they closed schools on 21.10… I feel that we’ve had it all, but I decided not even try to get tested as I fell its pointless at this stage. I work from home, kid is studying from home. My wife probably brought virus from work, as she can’t work “remotely”… her employer put pressure on her not to take more sick leaves. We wear masks / gloves at shops and avoid others, but fuck trying to figure out what to do with rubbish or how to get shopping when you get diagnosed and you can’t leave apartment for 10 days.
Now I am going to go for another 50km bike spin to keep myself sane in this madness.
My friends 13 year old daughter had it recently, as did a number of her classmates. It was no worse than a cold/flu. She had headaches and felt sick for a couple of days. She was over it in less than a week. Shes a fit kid who plays sport.
Assuming your family members do not suffer from underlying illnesses, are active etc, I would suggest that its not something to worry about too much. At this stage Id be pretty sure that obesity and general inactivity/poor diet leading to weaker immune systems are what lead to complications from Covid.
The impact of a new Covid vaccine will kick in significantly over summer and life should be back to normal by next winter, one of its creators has said.
Prof Ugur Sahin, co-founder of BioNTech, said this winter would still be hard as the vaccine would not have a big impact on infection numbers.
Last week, BioNTech and co-developers Pfizer said preliminary analysis showed their vaccine could prevent more than 90% of people from getting Covid-19.
About 43,000 people took part in tests.
Another year of this madness, what will come first, the vaccine or heard immunity?
Yes I think Sky News were doing a report every hour yesterday on Covid’s long term effects. Two Physios were beside a guy who was an in patient who was out of breath after a flight of stairs. ‘This is bad because at home I’d have to climb the stairs 3 times a day to go to the toilet’
The intro said ‘Paul is a painter’. But then you see Paul at the end of the report lying on bed and he’s so obese only 1 button closes on the Pajamas.
My hunch is Paul trained as a Painter 40 years but hasn’t been up a ladder in a long long time.
Mass suicide comes first, Dubliners lepping into the Liffey screaming for the river gods to swallow them up
Assuming your family members do not suffer from underlying illnesses,
My dad have 2 conditions from the “covid list” and he was long time smoker, so I am most worried about him. My mom already went for 2 funerals in our family in recent weeks… its a depressing year.