Coronavirus 2020


#21

…totally nuts and in truth you might be right

To be frank, if this is a manufactured crisis, its perfect for Trump, isn’t it? Which is weird…

And who is Trumps friend that has a real, deep, storied and demonstrated BW capacity?

Russia!

Where is Russia?

Next door to China!

Look, I could go on all day,and I’d also point point out that military BW programs around the world are opaque, but I could also say that these programs could not give a shit about BSL-4 level labs, of which there are 13 in the US, which are built to contain contagions, not develop them. Development means testing. and testing means lots and lots of monkeys.

‘‘We used monkeys, about 200 to 300 each year,’’ Lepyoshkin later recounts. ‘‘Our staff would take them out to the range’’ – 15 miles from town – ‘‘and they would put them in cages next to devices that measured the concentration of germs in the air. Then after they were exposed, they were taken to the labs, where we would test their blood and monitor the development of a disease in them. They would die within weeks, and we would perform autopsies.’’

https://www.nti.org/learn/facilities/815/

But irrespective of the media and how and when its reported, the actual reality is that this started weeks ago. And its a bog standard coronavirus.

My other theory, Trump and the 13 labs in the US did it - I might be totally nuts and in truth I might be right.


#22

You are going to see many more tens of millions in quarantine in the next 2 days. This is not being treated as bog standard by locals or the powers that be.


#23

Yeah I meant bog standard on that its just a naturally evolved coronavirus. Nature can fuck us up on on its own.


#24

Any updates?


#25

It’s CNY tomorrow and everything is already completely locked down. I have a feeling there will be very little news for at least the next 24 hours. Having said that a healthy young man with no previous health issues has died from the coronavirus in Beijing. He had returned from Wuhan.


#26

● There are more than 830 confirmed cases of infection, and at least 26 people have died. A total of 8,420 people are reported to be under observation. The vast majority of the victims had been older than 60, and almost all of them had existing health conditions.

● Authorities are enforcing a lockdown across large parts of the province of Hubei, population 59 million.

● Officials in South Korea and Japan have confirmed two cases of the virus in each country.

● Infections have also been reported in Nepal, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam and the United States. In addition to a case confirmed in Washington state, Texas has reported a potential case in Brazos County, 100 miles northwest of Houston.

● The Chinese medical system has clearly struggled to cope with the outbreak, with reports of crowded hospitals, stressed doctors and dwindling supplies.


#27

We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.

Grim.


#28

That doesn’t actually sound bad for Feb 4. The problem is, February 24, and the next 10 days, and the 10 days after that, etc. If the infection rate continues expanding at 10x or so every 10 days then we get very high numbers of infected people very quickly.


#29

Simulation Shows 65 million could be killed worldwide

Eric Toner, a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security, wasn’t shocked when news of a mysterious coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, surfaced in early January.
Less than three months earlier, Toner had staged a simulation of a global pandemic involving a coronavirus.
Coronaviruses typically affect the respiratory tract and can lead to illnesses like pneumonia or the common cold. A coronavirus was also responsible for the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in China, which affected about 8,000 people and killed 774 in the early 2000s.
“I have thought for a long time that the most likely virus that might cause a new pandemic would be a coronavirus,” Toner said.
The outbreak in Wuhan isn’t considered a pandemic, but the virus has been reported in Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia. The US reported its first case on Tuesday: a man in his 30s living in Washington’s Snohomish County, north of Seattle, who recently visited China.
So far, the virus has killed 18 people and infected more than 630.
“We don’t yet know how contagious it is. We know that it is being spread person to person, but we don’t know to what extent,” Toner said. “An initial first impression is that this is significantly milder than SARS. So that’s reassuring. On the other hand, it may be more transmissible than SARS, at least in the community setting.”
Toner’s simulation of a hypothetical deadly coronavirus pandemic suggested that after six months, nearly every country in the world would have cases of the virus. Within 18 months, 65 million people could die.


#30

Actually… Chicago woman that caught it seems to be doing well. That’s a good sign.


#31

I’m hearing of 9 - 12 days incubation period. Also, confirmed cases now in France, I think two. If that incubation period is anything close to accurate, then it’s everywhere.


#32

It’s starting to look that way. Cases in Hong Kong too, so it’s all over China now which means that cat is out of the bag.


#33

The Chinese I trust 100% :icon_beer:

I think this has been brewing since end of last year and there may be 100k already infected in China.

If the death rate is as low as reported but the infected population much higher, then this would not be so deadly in comparison to other seasonal nasties such as influenza?

I see it being reported and referred to as deadly in media reports, but how do I know it is deadly or not? I see media ramp up. I see video on twitter of people collapsing (do I assume they are dead). I see more reports of a case here a case there, I see those videos being removed as other new ones appear, but;

How do I know it is deadly or not?

WHO to believe?

For what to believe?


#34

Lab-Made Coronavirus Triggers Debate

The creation of a chimeric SARS-like virus has scientists discussing the risks of gain-of-function research.

Nov 16, 2015

… The results demonstrate the ability of the SHC014 surface protein to bind and infect human cells, validating concerns that this virus—or other coronaviruses found in bat species—may be capable of making the leap to people without first evolving in an intermediate host, Nature reported. They also reignite a debate about whether that information justifies the risk of such work, known as gain-of-function research. “If the [new] virus escaped, nobody could predict the trajectory,” Simon Wain-Hobson, a virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, told Nature .


#35

What? It didn’t spread from Hilary Clinton’s email server?


#36

serpentza 589K subscribers

My Chinese doctor friends have reached out, things are changing rapidly day to day, hour to hour, I would like to bring you up to date on everything I know with inside information that I’m getting from medical teams on the ground in China and all the significant developments. I will be hosting a live discussion tomorrow the 24th of January at 1pm Pacific Time, I will be joined by fellow China watcher, Laowhy86. See you all there, come with questions, leave with answers.

Chap on the right here if I am not mistaken is the same dude from a video on China posted by @ps200306 elsewhere.


#37

This reminds me, GP mentioned a couple of weeks ago the “flu” this year was doing strange things.

I also know of another who is now on a nebulizer after a tough run but not influenza, it required some hospitalisation, it was something on the lungs but I am not sure it was determined, this was over the festive season.

“Make no mistake, though, this is an emergency in China,” he said. “But it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one.”

Dr Cuddihy described the risk of a case occurring in Ireland, even through secondary infection, as “low”.

Cuddihy be wrong?

Let’s hope his outlook is on the money.


#38

I think Japanese coverage is worth watching - they’re the only somewhat honest, advanced country in the region.


#39

Its in Melbourne too, apparently a male who flew in on the 19th. That’s almost a week ago. This is likely already out of the the bag and quite contagious. People have been on planes while contagious with hundreds of others.

Stock up on n95/p2 masks , cold defence spray, zinc supplements and probably good to bring a hand sanitizer around everywhere with you.

Though you might need to wear goggles too :frowning:


#40

I told my brother and sister in law in California to get those masks on Amazon. They are sold out. He went to the pharmacist, also sold out. They said they were sold out immediately. Apparently they are going for big money now from private sellers. I believe the Chinese people in the U.S. alerted people far in advance. Also, I read somewhere of someone saying there were notices in Wuhan in December requiring people to wear masks and the virus was known about back then. Best thing you can do is not to compromise your immune system over the next few weeks. Take your vitamins.