Coronavirus 2020


#384

The early research said the same thing about the Spanish flu. That it was a cytokine storm, but then later research refuted this saying it was most likely secondary illnesses.

I much more think that it’s a similar thing here. It could be down to smog and much more likely, it’s down to smoking. From a quick google search it says that China accounts for 51.4% of the total male smokers in the world. Interesting that men are dying from this disease in higher numbers than women. Smokers have impaired lungs, something which is detrimental to those who pick up pneumonia. Chinese men smoke in way higher numbers than females. Check out the information in the wiki article (this was also mentioned by that British youtube Doctor running the Coronavirus series).


#385

Another angle of speculation I have seen is that this is the result of a big mandatory vaccine program enforced end of 2019 in China utilising a universal coronavirus vaccine, and the contagion is the result of virus shedding with disastrous results, I wonder if this were true, might it lead to a fizzling out if the program was suspended and now it’s a clean up operations on the part of the CCP, it would make sense they would want to blame it on the US and spread such dis-information among it’s own citizens to take the heat of the CCP, same if it was a Bio-Weapon let loose by CCP accidentally or some other operators intentionally, I wonder who else might so dutch a thing - If i find any links I’ll follow up.

@Blindjustice I have come across the idea that high enough levels of B vitamins, I think B6 help reduce, curtail or stop such cytokine storms occurring - this is where the lungs fill up with fluid as your immune system reacts albeit too late (as it has not detected the presence of the virus), if I remember correctly this was postulated to be the reason for younger and more healthy demographic being victims during the Spanish Flu, since they had more active immune responses being in the prime of their health.

@EconomicCrashDummy what is interesting to note in your wiki quote of the Spanish flu was also Swine flue related, is that China had a major swine flu last year and i think sot 50% of it’s swine stock was culled, so much impact and loss was endured, that China had to look to the US to purchase swine stock to feed internal demand, and this gave the Trump admin incredible leverage during negations, and I read pigs experience the same respiratory ailments as are occurring in Chinese people - So has this thing jumped to humans?


#386

It’s definitely jumped to us from some animal. They were first speculating on bats as it had some overlap with bat DNA but the last few articles I glanced over said that it could come from Pangolin’s also with a 99% DNA match. I’m taking all those things with a grain of salt. But, these types of disease do seem to jump between species. Funnily enough, in the movie Contagion, they actually talk about the virus jumping into humans from bats and that this would be the next major pandemic. They also talk about how nobody needs to weaponise one of these viruses to spread around the world. It’ll happen every hundred years or so because they will just mutate to being different from our current anti-viruses. It’s inevitable. I think that is certainly true.


#387

I think what we are witnessing is a heap of dis-info and few if any can pick through it to form a real picture, which is the purpose of dis-info, and having identified that use of dis-info, it’s important ot put it in it’s usual context, that probably leave but one conclusion, that China is War sate therefore China is at War - that’s the first truth I see, but with or who is China at War, the Virus or someone/something else?

The next is fear, the info one way or the other, has instilled real fear in people, not just real tangible everyday life chilling effects in China, but creeping outwardly from China and beyond - a fearful world, is for the taking.


#388

I think Gwyneth Paltrows character in Contagion dies from a Cytokine storm


#389

The moron-in-chief speaks:


#390

Tourist bookings to Venice, already suffering a decline in visitor numbers since the city was hit by extreme flooding in November, fell by 30% compared with last year ahead of its annual carnival, which got under way over the weekend.


#391

I think people are going to start curtailing their visits to mass gatherings of any kind in the next month or so. An airshow in Singapore has already had many businesses pull out. The same with the Barcelona, Mobile World Congress. I can’t see Vegas doing well. I’m actually surprised there was no breakout there as usually it’s overrun with Chinese people in January, even before the Lunar New Year. Sports events and music events might take a big hit. I have heard that businesses are really cutting back on business trips. Let’s see how it all plays out.


#392

The number of infected is leveling off according to the John Hopkins Dashboard.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


#393

It’s not, figures get updated around midnight. Wouldn’t trust the official figures in China anyway.


#394

I agree but given that most of the country has been on lockdown for a few weeks now it makes sense that there might be some levelling off in the next while.

The Japan cruise ship hasn’t seen an increase in cases since yesterday. Maybe they just haven’t updated yet. It’s also interesting that there were not many cases on the Hong Kong cruise ship. I would have expected it to easily spread in those shared environments where everyone is very up close and you have buffet’s and shared coffee/tea places.

Seems kind of bizarre that sometimes the virus spreads incredibly quickly and other times it doesn’t seem to. Almost like two different strains of it.


#395

Tests are nucleic acid swabs

not testing for antibodies


#396

Two of the Japanese men that were evacuated last month from Wuhan and had tested negative back then developed symptoms on Feb 10 and now test positive. One of them had been staying in a hotel in Japan the other at home since they came back. I don’t think they were self quarantining. So it seems over 10 days later after testing negative they tested positive. I don’t know much about how the testing works but what you’re saying sounds plausible Blindj, and if that’s right then I guess we can expect a lot more cases to crop up soon enough.


#397

#398

Sorry just updated my post, tests aren’t currently looking for antibodies but I believe directly for the virus with that type of test.


#399

User antimonic on reddit has predicted nearly exactly the chiinese govt fatality figures a number of days in advance. He says they’re using a quadratic

Fatalities reported by China each day:

  • 05/02/2020: 490
  • 06/02/2020: 563
  • 07/02/2020: 636
  • 08/02/2020: 721

Predicted by /u/Antimonic, before 05/02:

  • 05/02/2020 23435 cases 489 fatalities
  • 06/02/2020 26885 cases 561 fatalities
  • 07/02/2020 30576 cases 639 fatalities
  • 08/02/2020 722 fatalities

Quite extraordinary if you ask me. No idea what to think of it.

And from himself

The almost perfectly quadratic case growth does not show any sign of slowing down and therefore I do not see how anyone could predict that case numbers will slow down, let alone peak in a week.

I think you should really look at the numbers more closely.

Essentially the numbers are made up.
We said 500 yesterday, lets increase todays figures by 15%, the next day by 14%, the next by 13% etc…etc…

Nuts.


#400

Is this the far too perfect 2.1% increase seen everyday?

One anecdote put it’s at 50,000 dead now 1.5M infected and rising, hmmm…


#401

As a matter of record, Zerohedge had it’s twitter account suspended for posting a link to it’s own sites article raising the HIV insert story at the time, which was posted here too.

If you haven’t figured it out yet, even though you might be resident outside of China, using social media and big tech platforms, you have been virtually living in a China like internet experience more and more as each day passes for who knows how long exactly - are we getting the picture yet?


#402

Listen to this guy, Dr Leung, very carefully. He was the guy who first went very public in HK about just how serious things are in China.

He and the people around him waded into a very political dangerous situation with the HK government trying to force Lam to bring in an immediate quarantine for HK. She was under direct orders from Beijing to keep the border open but eventually, but only after the HK health system medical staff went on strike, did she eventually relent. In very bad grace.

It looks like the defaco martial law in Chinese cities has less to do with epidemic control than with the Communist Party keeping control of the situation. Social distancing is more important than movement control once an epidemic reaches breakout point. The epidemic seems to have seriously effected the police, interior police and various CCP cadres which are normally used to enforce civil control of the population.

Other interesting stories out of China. A lot of people are talking about the multiple scandals in the last decade of people in research institutes illegally selling lab animals, like this one…

From the judgment (Chinese language source)

"From July 2008 to February 2012, during the research, related subjects purchased scientific research funds for pigs and cattle required for experiments, and the proceeds from the sale of experimental recipients of pigs, cattle, and milk eliminated during the research process The defendant Zhang Lei (an executive of the company controlled by Li Ning) asked Li Ning how to deal with it. Li Ning instructed Zhang Lei to hand over the money to the accountant Ou Moujia and Xie Mojia separately, and do not hand it over. A then deposited this amount into a personal bank card, with a cumulative amount of RMB 10,179,201.86. "

So selling dead lab animals used in genetic engineering experiments into the food chain.

Detailed discussion in public forums of the 2019 nCoV genetic structure seems to have gone pretty quiet the last few weeks. My guess it is all back channel now. For various very good reasons. One guy with a serious heavy duty genetic engineering / microbiology background did make some interesting claims. That there are certain markers, basically modification processing scaffolding, in 2019 nCoV than never occurs naturally. He was very convincing right up the moment I checked his CV and it turned out he was also a crazy anti-vaxer crank. Which pretty much invalidates his theory of why it might have been originally developed ( as a SARs vax ) but other stuff he talks about might give hints as where to look for non natural element in the genetic structure. If they exist.

A lot of the initial response to 2019 nCoV by the political authorities in China was pretty similar to SAR back in 2003, to suppress the story. But there just enough difference to make one very suspicious of a possible non natural origin for the virus. Nothing malicious or malevolent to the story I would guess. Just a usual mainland Chinese style total balls up of serial incompetence. Animal(s) from a non military research unit reaches the outside world one way or another and directly or in directly end up the in the Seafood Market in the Wuhan in November. Which would fit with an initial lab release sometime in October.

I’m sure we will find out eventually. Meanwhile, the West is now on a 60 to 90 day countdown to see if we have dodged a full blown epidemic. With a R0 of 3+, non specific initial symptoms, common to colds and flu and the primary clinical test successful positive detection rate of 20% the odds dont look too good at the moment.


#403

Once it get’s a foothold somewhere it seems as if it can infect a lot of people. Although, maybe this is all down to just a few super spreaders in that one department store in Tianjin.

Adding this article also to show how infectious it appears to be. Particularly to frontline medical staff. They say that at least 500 Wuhan medical staff were infected by mid January. I started daily tracking of total infected on the morning of January 27th (EST) and there were 2886. They are estimating over 500 medical staff alone were infected over 10 days before that for the Wuhan hospitals. So either there were loads of people in Wuhan already infected in mid January, or else there were a few super spreaders in the hospitals (neither of those scenarios is actually good, but I’d go with the fact that there were 1000’s infected in mid January already). It seems more and more bizarre that there aren’t more cases outside of China yet, or else these cases just are not being documented.