Why I think schools are responsible for confirmed cases not declining despite level 5 is as follows:
1 Why kids are risky.
Johnny goes to school A class 1 where he is isolated in a bubble with a few kids as the class is split into groups. His teacher wears a screen where his/her breath is directed downwards. Oh he also gets on a bus where its overcrowded like a clown car even though the government has ambitions of social distancing on school transport he now mixes with class 2 through 11.
His siblings go to school B class 12 and College C class 13, 14, 15, 16. Johnny attends an after school facility (where noone has to wear a mask except if changing a nappy or other occasions where bodily fluids are involved) or afterschool activity (I’m not sure if these are open) attended by kids from schools D classes 17,18,19 E, classes 20,21,22. etc. He goes and mixes with kids on the street classes 23, 24, 25.
Johnny hobbies include picking his nose and his version of washing his hands is its a job that takes 5 seconds (soap is optional) if he remembers or is reminded after taking a shit.
- School surroundings are risky
One of Johnnys parents picks up covid and infects Johnny and siblings and they infect other parents having a chat at school gate etc (you know the logic is sporting matches crowds cancelled cause people can social distance in grounds but won’t keep to that distancing outside). There is no decent social distancing when the bell goes or outside the gate.
These consist of people coming forward because they are symptomatic and contacts of a confirmed case.
My theory is schools being back for a day leads to 1/5th of their weekly effect on figures so you really need them back full time for 5 days to get their full effect of open schools.
You need to wait 2-14 days (5 days average) from infection for someone to be symptomatic enough to seek a test and a further 2-3 days for results to come back.
It therefore takes 13ish days (maybe a little longer) for most of the effects of schools being open to properly show up in the rates of infection.
Schools were closed for 9 days over Halloween (including the 2 weekends). The first people to show signs of infection after being infected on day 1 of schools being back would show up in figures at least 4-5 days later (average 7-8 days later). It would take an average 11-12 days for most of the effects of schools being open to show up in figures. It would start to filter through to the 7 day average figure after about 5 days but not fully effect it till about day 18 or 19.
I think around day 13 it would show a decent effect on the figures.
For Day 10 of schools being open the previous week had a total of 2869 confirmed cases this compares to Day 17 of schools being open 2909 confirmed cases. This was a 1.4% increase.
2 Days before school reopened we had 5856 confirmed cases the previous week, on Day 5 of schools being open the previous week had a total of 3591 confirmed cases there had been a 38.7% decrease in confirmed cases.
I would speculate the weekly figures are being affected significantly by schools being open however this is just a theory other factors may be at play and I freely admit my evidence is weak. I’ve been wrong plenty before. This is just my own theory from looking at figures its one possible mechanism to explain the current numbers.
I’m putting this out there with the question can anyone direct me to evidence that opening schools is safe?