Coronavirus 2020

coronavirus

#4136

#4137

The 2006 Origins of the Lockdown Idea

…Notice that in the course of this planning, neither legal nor economic experts were brought in to consult and advise. Instead it fell to Mecher (formerly of Chicago and an intensive care doctor with no previous expertise in pandemics) and the oncologist Hatchett.

But what is this mention of the high-school daughter of 14? Her name is Laura M. Glass, and she recently declined to be interviewed when the Albuquerque Journal did a deep dive of this history.

Laura, with some guidance from her dad, devised a computer simulation that showed how people – family members, co-workers, students in schools, people in social situations – interact. What she discovered was that school kids come in contact with about 140 people a day, more than any other group. Based on that finding, her program showed that in a hypothetical town of 10,000 people, 5,000 would be infected during a pandemic if no measures were taken, but only 500 would be infected if the schools were closed.

Laura’s name appears on the foundational paper arguing for lockdowns and forced human separation. That paper is Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza (2006). It set out a model for forced separation and applied it with good results backwards in time to 1957. They conclude with a chilling call for what amounts to a totalitarian lockdown, all stated very matter-of-factly.

Implementation of social distancing strategies is challenging. They likely must be imposed for the duration of the local epidemic and possibly until a strain-specific vaccine is developed and distributed. If compliance with the strategy is high over this period, an epidemic within a community can be averted. However, if neighboring communities do not also use these interventions, infected neighbors will continue to introduce influenza and prolong the local epidemic, albeit at a depressed level more easily accommodated by healthcare systems.

In other words, it was a high-school science experiment that eventually became law of the land, and through a circuitous route propelled not by science but politics.

https://www.aier.org/article/the-2006-origins-of-the-lockdown-idea/

If you are advocating for lockdowns, you are complicit in tearing families apart. You are complicit in inflicting untold suffering on millions of people around the world. You are complicit in casting the poorest and most vulnerable in our societies into even further grinding poverty. You are complicit in murder.


#4138

Me me me!

… and right on schedule Dr. Varadkar with the usual “heads up” of the next instalment of tyrannical measures (casue we have not and are not gone away you know) with the usual shilling for big pharmas profits and Deus ex machina Vaccine!


#4139

Personally, I’d fire Nephet - Tony and the GP woman first- for these malicious, pre-emptive leaks. It’s all drearily predictable.


#4140

Seen this Movie Yet?

I found this online review on rotten bananas, [SPOILER ALERT]

While this movie keeps you locked to your seat, it relies too heavily on hackneyed visuals and unoriginal script writing, with a plot line as thick as salvation army soup which allows very little character development for the main protagonists and also paints the majority of characters as utterly interchangeable cardboard cut outs and being generally unlikeable for the most.

While clearly aiming for a worldwide audience looking for cheap thrills, easy to follow plot cues and hopefully the odd memorable one liner, well what can we say about the one liners - don’t get your hopes up, it’s no Die Hard.

However it is expected to be big green grosser at the box office being anticipated as popular with movie goers this holiday season, theatrical trailers promise big ticket fun, the reality is it just doesn’t deliver or follow through on the tantalising and gripping sneak peaks packaged as offering a great night out, perhaps this is why there is already talk of a sequel early in the new year with general worldwide release, to capitalise on an unsatisfied audience who still want more or looking form something else to believe in.

This one will be hard to miss for most this season. If you do have to sit through it perhaps bring a pillow in case you feel the need to have a light snooze, while the script and character go through the motions.

Already Released in Wales, Ireland, Canada.


Joe Warmington @joe_warmington

WARMINGTON: Mississauga mayor wants big retailers to stop selling non-essentials to ‘level the playing field’ | Toronto Sun

2:45 PM · Nov 26, 2020

https://twitter.com/joe_warmington/status/1331972288263188480

:popcorn:


#4141

Government going against NPHET advice. Good.


#4142

A Golden Moment

Do we stand before a golden moment, a chance to really be brave?

Where we RESET the rules, more toned and more appraised after a years hard slog behind us.

Re-open everything and drop all pretence and just test what comes into the hospitals.

It’s been around since 2019, the acknowledged lack of a SURGE in deaths is worth a lot, the threat is no longer the GREAT DEATH Dr Leo Varadkar & Co would have liked everyone to believe and continue to believe in perpetuity, it has worked it’s way around the islands population. It is over. We Win by Losing enough, but not by losing everything.

The WAR is over!

We surrender to FREEDOM.

We agree to the terms and conditions of surrender and pledge our LIVES for LIVING.

The choice is and has always been ours to make.


Latest figures:

Ireland 2036 death Pop. 5.5 million. (lockdown)
Japan 2022 deaths. Pop. 125 million. (no lockdown, pops approx 22 times that of Ireland)


#4143

Does anyone remember this

When future historians look back, they’ll be able to draw parallels between the two events and in both cases the extreme overreactions that ensued as certain people tried “to play it safe”.
History will show that the preventative measures caused far more disruption than the original cause.

It should also be noted that the following year another major volcano erupted in Iceland and the “no fly zone” was restricted to only the directly affected areas as opposed to a blanket ban in 2010.


#4144

A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID-19

By YANNI GU | November 22, 2020

COURTESY OF GENEVIEVE BRIAND

After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September.

According to new data, the U.S. currently ranks first in total COVID-19 cases, new cases per day and deaths. Genevieve Briand, assistant program director of the Applied Economics master’s degree program at Hopkins, critically analyzed the effect of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in her webinar titled “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data.”

From mid-March to mid-September, U.S. total deaths have reached 1.7 million, of which 200,000, or 12% of total deaths, are COVID-19-related. Instead of looking directly at COVID-19 deaths, Briand focused on total deaths per age group and per cause of death in the U.S. and used this information to shed light on the effects of COVID-19.

She explained that the significance of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths can be fully understood only through comparison to the number of total deaths in the United States.

After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.

Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.

“The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals,” Briand said.

Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.

These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.

This comes as a shock to many people. How is it that the data lie so far from our perception?

To answer that question, Briand shifted her focus to the deaths per causes ranging from 2014 to 2020. There is a sudden increase in deaths in 2020 due to COVID-19. This is no surprise because COVID-19 emerged in the U.S. in early 2020, and thus COVID-19-related deaths increased drastically afterward.

Analysis of deaths per cause in 2018 revealed that the pattern of seasonal increase in the total number of deaths is a result of the rise in deaths by all causes, with the top three being heart disease, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia.

“This is true every year. Every year in the U.S. when we observe the seasonal ups and downs, we have an increase of deaths due to all causes,” Briand pointed out.

When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange. As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.

COURTESY OF GENEVIEVE BRIAND

Graph depicts the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018.

This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years. Interestingly, as depicted in the table below, the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19.

COURTESY OF GENEVIEVE BRIAND

Graph depicts the total decrease in deaths by various causes, including COVID-19.

The CDC classified all deaths that are related to COVID-19 simply as COVID-19 deaths. Even patients dying from other underlying diseases but are infected with COVID-19 count as COVID-19 deaths. This is likely the main explanation as to why COVID-19 deaths drastically increased while deaths by all other diseases experienced a significant decrease.

“All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. We found no evidence to the contrary,” Briand concluded.

In an interview with The News-Letter , Briand addressed the question of whether COVID-19 deaths can be called misleading since the infection might have exacerbated and even led to deaths by other underlying diseases.

“If [the COVID-19 death toll] was not misleading at all, what we should have observed is an increased number of heart attacks and increased COVID-19 numbers. But a decreased number of heart attacks and all the other death causes doesn’t give us a choice but to point to some misclassification,” Briand replied.

In other words, the effect of COVID-19 on deaths in the U.S. is considered problematic only when it increases the total number of deaths or the true death burden by a significant amount in addition to the expected deaths by other causes. Since the crude number of total deaths by all causes before and after COVID-19 has stayed the same, one can hardly say, in Briand’s view, that COVID-19 deaths are concerning.

Briand also mentioned that more research and data are needed to truly decipher the effect of COVID-19 on deaths in the United States.

Throughout the talk, Briand constantly emphasized that although COVID-19 is a serious national and global problem, she also stressed that society should never lose focus of the bigger picture — death in general.

The death of a loved one, from COVID-19 or from other causes, is always tragic, Briand explained. Each life is equally important and we should be reminded that even during a global pandemic we should not forget about the tragic loss of lives from other causes.

According to Briand, the over-exaggeration of the COVID-19 death number may be due to the constant emphasis on COVID-19-related deaths and the habitual overlooking of deaths by other natural causes in society.

During an interview with The News-Letter after the event, Poorna Dharmasena, a master’s candidate in Applied Economics, expressed his opinion about Briand’s concluding remarks.

“At the end of the day, it’s still a deadly virus. And over-exaggeration or not, to a certain degree, is irrelevant,” Dharmasena said.

When asked whether the public should be informed about this exaggeration in death numbers, Dharmasena stated that people have a right to know the truth. However, COVID-19 should still continuously be treated as a deadly disease to safeguard the vulnerable population.

http://web.archive.org/web/20201122214034/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19


#4145

Before it’s gone.


#4146

Level (beta)

The terms & conditions of the collective consensual captivity continue to change with the now familiar fashion to gaslight, what appears to be a habitual political tendency, more befitting the desperate hijacker/s, whose logic has almost run out thus rational must be rationed, beyond that it is surrender or start shooting(up)!

The guidance on face masks will also change, with the public being asked to wear face coverings in outdoor settings from December 1st, including workplaces, places of worship and on busy streets.

Guidance before it is made law perhaps, that kind of here is a kite I wish to fly guidance? :whistle:


#4147

Japan never locked down.

Japan is like the other Sweden you never hear about.

22 times the population of Ireland, we now have almost identical death tolls. Maybe they got a lucky strain.

The Scientist Who Saved Japan Once Battles a New Virus Surge

Hitoshi Oshitani’s plans helped Japan avoid deaths, lockdowns
Pandemic fatigue threatens approach amid jump in infections
Japan has recorded around 124,000 cases in total and the country.

Japan has recorded around 124,000 cases in total and the country.

Having mocked him at first for his theories on how the coronavirus spread, the world came to recognize the effectiveness of Japanese scientist Hitoshi Oshitani’s “Three C’s” approach to the pandemic: avoiding closed spaces, crowded places and close contact situations where the virus thrives.

It’s a strategy that’s helped Japan avoid thousands of deaths without a lockdown – but one that’s now being challenged with infections rapidly escalating as cold weather sets in. Oshitani fears the nation may not be ready.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-19/the-scientist-who-saved-japan-once-now-battles-a-new-virus-surge

Total Mystery

japan does not have the lowest death rate for Covid-19 - in the region, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Vietnam can all boast lower mortality.

But in the early part of 2020, Japan saw fewer deaths than average. This is despite the fact that in April, Tokyo saw about 1,000 "excess deaths’ - perhaps due to Covid. Yet, for the year as a whole, it is possible that overall deaths will be down on 2019…

…Japan also discovered two significant patterns early in the pandemic.

Dr Kazuaki Jindai, a medical researcher at Kyoto university and member of the cluster-suppression taskforce, said data showed over a third of infections originated in very similar places.

“Our figures… showed many infected people had visited music venues where there is screaming and singing… we knew that those were the places people needed to avoid.”

The team identified “heavy breathing in close proximity” including “singing at karaoke parlours, parties, cheering at clubs, conversations in bars and exercising in gyms” as the highest-risk activities.

Second, the team found that the infection’s spread was down to a small percentage of those carrying the virus.

An early study found around 80% of those with Sars-CoV-2 did not infect others - while 20% were highly infectious.

[image caption] The state of emergency did not make staying home compulsory, but rather encouraged

These discoveries led to the government launching a nationwide campaign warning people to avoid the “Three Cs”.

  • Enclosed spaces with poor ventilation
  • Crowded places with many people
  • Close contact settings such as face-to-face conversations.

Read Full and lengthy piece at below links:

Archived link - https://archive.is/SV25t

Original Src link - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53188847

Tokyo population alone is approx. 37 million, and yet a 1000 excess deaths is the complaint.


#4148

Mission Accomplished

…These measures, aimed at saving lives, can sometimes be detrimental enough to the overall health of residents that they find themselves looking into other options…


Archived link: https://archive.is/89UUT


#4149

Eoghan Harris never misses a chance to have a pop at RTÉ, especially current affairs, but he makes a good point this week (after his usual anti-IRA dig).

The silence of the media and politicians about the breach of COVID regulations by RTEs top news names is extraordinary and shows who wields real power in this country. They are walking away Scot-free from this debacle. Journalists and politicians fear being blacklisted by RTÉ.

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/brave-president-shows-there-is-no-monopoly-on-past-memory-39804114.html


#4150

Before it’s gone.


#4151

The Irish Times on Twitter: "Minister for Health confirms the State has indemnified drug companies against any liabilities arising from complications with the vaccine. https://t.co/PKhYXBATLV" / Twitter

Minister for Health confirms the State has indemnified drug companies against any liabilities arising from complications with the vaccine.

Grand so :whistle:


#4152

I’ll be near the back of the queue then!


#4153

Ah sure they gave us RTE.


#4154

you and me both mate


#4155

Eh, not so fast. This looks like liability has just been shifted onto the taxpayer. Again. Lawsuits for illness or death from the vaccination will go ahead, but it won’t be the drug company paying out, it will be you and me. This is just another variation of the privatise profits, socialise losses theme that pin users learned all about during the banking collapse