Coronavirus 2020

coronavirus

#4277

ICU Covid cases now down to 25 - lowest in a month. Hospital cases at 239 - exactly the same number as they were on 4th December when restrictions eased (and the same number as mid-October.)

Where’s the surge? Why the hysteria?


#4278

Why the hysteria? Cases are currently rising rapidly.

People infected today don’t show as confirmed cases for about 8 days. People who catch Covid today won’t be symptomatic for 5 days, won’t test positive for 2 days after that or be in national figures for a day after that.

Hospital cases peaked 9 days after confirmed cases peaked in October.

ICU cases peaked 12 to 14 days after confirmed cases peaked in October.
.
With current growth my best guess model (based on between 10.71% and 17.66% growth per day) shows we exceed 2000 confirmed cases a day between Dec 27th and Dec 30th assuming the infected can get a doctor to refer them for and get a test. 2000 cases a day is the point where test and trace is dead in the water. We would hit 5000 confirmed cases a day between January 2nd and January 8th. Assuming it takes till the 8th to reach this figure good luck getting a bed in ICU from 20th January. This does not take into account any effect of opening up on 18th Dec or any carnage caused by Christmas day.

Today’s confirmed cases may be those who were infected 8 days ago. Based on Yesterdays figures I believe yesterday there were 2900ish + or - about 600ish people initially infected who will go on to be confirmed cases.

The scientist in me says I should state I’ve been wrong before and the human being in me says I hope I’m wrong this time, but why take a chance.


#4279

Technically, you’ve already been wrong today.

Earlier

Now


#4280

You quoted 1 line out of 2 paragraphs of a post to show I was already wrong.
I actually mentioned 2 scenarios in that post you only quoted the indented part below not the part in bold. Both scenarios are based on recent growth rates although what recent growth rate more closely reflects future growth rate remains to be seen.

Lowest daily growth rate 10.71% of any period in the last 8 days if projected forward we will have 2189 confirmed cases by Dec 30 (This can’t be modified as people are infected already). It will rise to above 5000 confirmed cases a day by 8th January without change in public behaviour.

If the average growth rate of 17.66% for last 8 days is repeated we will have 3568 cases a day by 30 Dec (This can’t be modified as people are infected already). It will rise to 5000 confirmed cases a day by 2nd January.


#4281

Q: If I went into a store warehouse that I am told contains 1 million cases of Cola, and had to check the numbers, and was only allowed use the PCR lab process to achieve this:

Do I end up with:

  1. 950,000 cases of *non-clinically-confirmed Pepsi-cola and 50,000 cases of Coca-cola.

or

  1. 1,000,000 cases of *non-clinically-confirmed Cola.

or

  1. Not having enough PCR capacity I have only confirmed 33,000 cases of Cola, but expect the warehouse will be overwhelmed if any more cases are delivered, because best estimate based on the numbers, there are at least 967,000 unchecked cases of cola lurking everywhere else in the warehouse.

* Does not pass the smell & taste test with 100% of consumers


Meanwhile In other news:

Austrian FPÖ Member of Parliament Michael Schnedlitz administered a COVID-19 PCR test to the beverage Coca Cola in the plenum before his colleagues. The popular drink tested positive for the COVID-19 coronavirus.

He said he was performing the test live before parliament: “so you can see how worthless and misguided these mass tests are.”

He continued: “The evidence is overwhelming, starting with the absolutely absurd mass tests that are currently being carried out, which are nothing more than a large-scale redistribution of tens of millions of euros in tax money from the population…it can’t go on like this.”

Schnedlitz later wrote on his Facebook page: “The coronavirus mass tests are worthless! This was also shown by a simple experiment in parliament, in which cola got a positive result! But this government spends tens of millions in taxpayers’ money for precisely these tests."

It is recommended not to drink acidic beverages like cola an hour before this test, which some have suggested could possibly explain how he had the courage to take such a gamble. The liquids that keep the pH value constant in a certain range are called buffers. They say that is exactly what the FPÖ politician avoided. That is why the acids contained in the cola reacted with the antibody that is actually supposed to catch the virus proteins.


#4282

#4283

They should also wash it down with some Cola.


#4284

And remember folks, the new variant has been around for months, has an equal or lower mortality rate than the current dominant variant, as is a typical variant at this stage of any epidemic, and that maybe 3 in every thousand might have an active infection. Of which the majority will be asymptotic and be no load / very low load shedders of viruses.

The “novel” variant is such a non-story that even the WHO are saying WTF are you guys talking about. The WHO… FFS…

So I must assume that Dr Henry has not cracked a book since he qualified more than 2 decades ago based on his statements. Well he has spent the last decade or so as part of the HSE / medical bureaucracy which might explain his combination of ignorance and arrogance that is so common with consultants with his sort of management CV. They are fine with the run of the mill standard stuff. Stuff that has effective therapeutic treatments. Everything else, they bullshit just as much as the best bad lawyers. And with the same sort of attitudinizing rolled in for effect.


#4285

laugh out loud moment, think i’ll go now crack me open a Christmas coca virus


#4286

“In a backhanded way, this bill does not aim to make vaccinations mandatory, but will prevent anybody who doesn’t comply from having a social life.”


#4288

The legal battle has started before anyone gets the vaccine. Before we vaccinate anyone, we need “complex consent forms” (in the desperate hope that these will provide a defence to the stream of medical negligence claims which will hit our courts in the coming year).

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/vaccine-red-tape-over-complex-consent-process-delays-roll-out-here-39905739.html


#4289

GGovernment might have boxed itself in. Indebted through perpetual public health lockdowns but unable to mass-vaccinate due to ambulance-chasing.


#4290

Who knew the virus was a follower of Christ.

No deaths Christmas Day or Stephens Day and a near 180 drop in cases.

It’s like a miracle or something. :whistle:


#4291

Mainly due to testers and labs taking time off, also I don’t expect that too many wanted to be tested over the past three days or so. Just wait until they open up all the testing centres & labs, could be quite a jump in numbers before the end of the week.

Still, a very small number of deaths though, how many had other conditions that could/would kill them if COVID wasn’t around?


#4292

We’re manufacturing the narrative that those harmed by the vaccine are the crooked ones, not those who harmed them.

I think the dominant recurring theme to “Modern” “Liberal” post-catholic Ireland is an establishment that victim blames when it f**ks up:
“We all partied”
“McCabe’s behaviour was disgusting”
“Litigation Culture”

It only ever happily accepts responsibility for pre-Liberal age causes “child prisoners” etc


#4293

Has anyone in Ireland heard of Implied Consent? WTF are they talking about “complex consent forms”?
Jesus Christ.


#4294

Oh, yeah, let’s blame those crooked scientists rushing out COVID vaccines to make us sick. We don’t have a litigation culture - those court reports we read every week are fake news.

But you must know that “modern, liberal Ireland” created a full-blown sworn inquiry in which a Supreme Court judge heard evidence from all sides and issued a report which fully vindicated Maurice McCabe who was subsequently compensated very generously for his mistreatment.

Sorry if my facts disturb your narrative…excuse me, “dominant recurring theme”.


#4295

For any medication or intervention informed consent should be required, not implied consent… especially with a new medication, especially with Ireland’s litigious climate for medicolegal matters (I’d rather the NZ model of compensation). The complex forms may be due to the fact that information is still limited (no medium or long-term studies as yet) and I think the vaccines are all still in a Phase 3 Clinical trials (completion in 2022)? https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04470427


#4296

Complete rubbish. A typical Irish attitude to an emergency. Specific consent is not required. It is only required when vested interests decide its required. Anyone who accepts an invitation for the vaccine and rolls up their shirt sleeve has consented.

I had a tooth extracted a year ago and didn’t sign anything. Thousands get medication and never sign a document. Chemists dispense drugs over the counter and never ask for a signature. Hospital wards carry out procedures daily and never require a signature on any form. This is because if we had to sign a form every time there was medical intervention it would be ridiculous and the system would stall.

The State has underwritten any perceived risk to the vaccine. No signature changes this.


#4297

For someone who thinks they understand liability you really need a lesson. The question isn’t whether the vaccine is rushed “to” make us sick, it’s whether its a vaccine “that” makes us sick.

Also your recollection of the State & McCabe is wishful, bordering on delusional. Tusla’s conduct was outrageous and not believable. Zero accountability. McCabe’s superiors conduct was appalling and suspicious. The judiciary retreated back into it’s old canard "we found no evidence of conspiracy