Dude, that’s a conspiracy theory.
George Hook on Twitter: "Fact. We have not had a SINGLE case of Flu in Irish hospitals this winter. Is the PCR test picking up colds, chills and flu as Covid19? Other countries have had a similar experience. Explain please Dr Holohan" / Twitter
We’re all conspiracy theorists now
That is also a conspiracy theory.
Oh boy, poor old Mr Huke, about to get trumped off twitter for misspeaking
So the official test positive rate goes from around 6% for months to over 20% % for a few weeks and is now back to 6%. According to the official numbers over 30% of everyone who died in the country the previous day died of “COVID”. At least that is how it has been reported. The previous worse day in the last year was maybe 4%. Maybe.
Despite the over 100 reported “COVID deaths” in two days the ICU’s number slowly trend up as the always do at this time of year. No huge dying off of patients in the ICU’s the last few days.
Here is my take on what happened. Either a new batch of reagents arrived 2W in December at the labs, or they fiddle around with the procedures, or someone change the calibration. Something changes which totally skews the test result. The results changes radically to three to four times higher positive results in the space of a few days.
Normally, in a competently run country, whoever was in change would shut everything down and fix the problem but its the week before Christmas and everyone who can make a decision has fucked off for the holidays and wont be back till January. So the first week in January they get back from holidays and notice, yeah there is a problem, it gets fixed and about a week later the results peculate though the testing results data. Back to 6%.
Pure criminal incompetence.
Except it ain’t back to 6% yet. 16.35% yesterday.
You have a point on the ICUs though.
9 months in and they haven’t enough bipap or cpap machines.
When you run out of machines the next available oxygen supplies are in the ICU.
But if you look on the official stats page its 6.1% yesterday. It was around 17% two or three days before.
As for ICU’s if you look at the admission rate it follows a typical curve until a few weeks ago when the daily rate goes up 3X plus. The a few days later the discharges goes up 3X plus. So all those new false positives are stuck in the ICU because they are very high risk and a few days later they are discharged to a general ward because, well, nothing serious developed. No early stage ARDS. Thats how I read the very odd huge ramp up in admission and discharges for a short period of time. Now over.
Someone fucked up the tests in the week 3 of December. Big time.
On purpose to scare the fn bejasus out of an already worried population. This had the effect of turning many fence sitters into full on Covid Nazi Covidian Cult Members.
Does the 6.1% not refer to the rate since testing began (164,719 / 2,687,386), up from about 4% from before December, and 17.9% is the rate over the past 7 days, down from a peak of 22.7% on 8th Jan?
You are correct.
The 7 day moving average is down to 17% but I did see some much lower number for the 1 day value somewhere in the data. I was trying to see if there was a steep fall in the 1 day value yet and it had started. That much lower 1 day value is why there is a steep down slope in the 7 day average. The very high values have stopped. At that slope it should be back to a typical 7 day value in about 5 days or so. The bad data having framed out.
We’re in lockdown again, so reported numbers will drop again.
Now you’re seeing it… The Branch Covidians need to manufacture consent to justify the origin and continuance of the medical tyranny sans exit-strategy, using the case tension (build-up) and release in the media - so they have to manufacture cases (surges), it appears to my eye, they can and on demand.
The hospitals test curve looks like a good control.
The Labs test curve then looks to be schizophrenic.
The hospital curve has never until last few days, ever contributed or co-incided with the historical rise in cases, however, it has always been the case for the lab curve, since the very beginning.
NPHET front-run in the media each time, before a rise and then herald an imminent drop (lockdown working, well done everyone!) knowing the setup, but they jumped the shark this time and @jmc sees it in the numbers in a different way. In this cases-centric narrative, with the methods & means, exclusively at their disposal, then:
They can never be wrong.
However once you see the Labs are the lynch pin of the operation, then you realise, what you have on your hands is not a casedemic, but a very well oiled TESTDEMIC.
To pull off the Testdemic, the public must be broadly ignorant of at least two things:
The PCR test unreliably controversy
This exposes the method
The divergence of the Hospital tests versus the lab tests volumes (incl. processing oversight)
This exposes the means.
That’s how it looks from here, in insane conspiracy towers, yea a conspiracy, a real one, but I’ll add one more note of another datapoint, which is a piece of sincere anecdotal evidence that has come to light recently, that leads me to believe this is exactly what is going on or supports some level of shenanigans - if all of this is correct, but it’s turns out not to be magic, and simply stupid incompetence, irregardless of which or what is the root cause, everyone needs to keep asking all the time, until satisfaction is achieved;
Please remember Hanlon’s razer.
*Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.
DOES NOT APPLY
No doubt they’re absolutely incompetent but most of them don’t even realise that they’re pawns in a much bigger game.
Actually it does. These people have form. Going back many many decades. Remember its the HSE and Dept of Health we are talking about here. Not people known in the past for their professional competence,.
We are talking about people who cannot build a hospital that costs 700M and is built in three years everywhere else but they cannot build it for anything less that 3 billion and maybe 10 years. These people cannot even build a hospital.
No malice needed, these people are just totally incompetent. Always have been, always will be. In these situations with these people Occam Razor should always be your instrument of choice. The answer is always incompetence because these people are always incompetent. They cannot be otherwise.
I haven’t checked in on this thread for many months as Covid hasn’t been an issue where I am for a long time. Not sure if the below has already been posted but it’s worth checking out. 4 people from this scientific study in Italy had antibodies for Covid19 in October of 2019 when the research team checked back on the previously provided serum samples. Almost 12% of all volunteers had antibodies for Covid19 by the start of March 2020. Meaning that they had already been infected and gotten over the symptoms or never noticed having the virus in the first place. Research carried out by the National Institute of Cancer Research in Italy and the University of Sienna. Peer reviewed and published research by a reputable institution.
"The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February.
A further SARS-CoV-2 antibodies test was carried out by the University of Siena for the same research titled “Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the pre-pandemic period in Italy”.
It showed that four cases dating back to the first week of October were positive for antibodies, meaning they had got infected in September, Giovanni Apolone, a co-author of the study, told Reuters."
I didn’t know they also gave the 1 day value, I had been working that out myself from change in moving 7 day average. 1 day value does, as you say, seem to have dropped considerably. To move the 7 day average of 17.9% two days ago to 16.0% yesterday, means yesterday’s value was around 6.9%
It was in there somewhere. I cant remember where off the top of my head. As you might guess I look at quite a bit of raw data so sometimes it can blur a bit. But the numbers stick.
Currently plowing through some of the CDC data to back up the idea that SARs CoV 2 is just a Hospital Acquired Pneumonia. Which accounts for its very odd epidemiology. Of genuine cases that is. Its the ones that turn into ARDs that gives you a good indication of what the real numbers down the symptom severity chain.
So looking very like a 90% plus HAP with a large number of cases probably high risk people who were precautionary hospitalized who were false positive but acquired a real infection after admittance to hospital. Thats what the numbers seem to look like.