Coronavirus 2020


#424

The cases outside of china are really taking off. It could be past the potential containment point now.

Either that or some don’t know what they are at

How does a quarantine officer pick it up. Could be one of the main vectors for spreading


#425

Here is the interview…

The guy who made the 20k estimate was Sam McConkey, Head of the Department of International Health and Tropical Medicine at the RCSI.


#426

According to Buzz.ie he said, up to 20k could contract (not die), within weeks. (Still not a nice prospect.)

[Edit: See, post below. Different accounts in the media. He did say 20k could die, based on original projections.]


#427

At 2m.14s in he uses the word DEAD in the audio I have. That posting was for the Jan 30 interview. There is maybe a second one by the sound of it.

Here is the audio…

Here is the rss feed…

https://player.todayfm.com/content/005/podcastFeeds/211.xml?/podcast_series/items/141/feedformat_itunes/


#428

There could be a few things going on there.
Maybe there is a super spreader.
Maybe the ventilation system is actually infecting people on that ship.
Or maybe in other locations/countries, they are just not being as thorough about checking people.

I was listening to one of the American ladies on the ship that was confirmed with the virus and quarantined. She didn’t even have any symptoms. She said she didn’t notice anything wrong at all.

The fact that loads more aren’t sick on the ship is still a good sign, although they haven’t actually checked too many people yet, which kind of defies logic in my book. It has been many many days now.

Maybe also the incubation period for this is just really really long for a lot of people.


#429

This extract is from page 6 and 7 of an unpeer - reviewed report from the National lab in Los Alamos that says the R0 could be between 4.4 and 6.7 but Social distancing appears to lower the R0

Based on th is growth rate and an R0between 4.7 to 6.6 before the control measures , a calculation following the formula in Ref. (14 ) suggest ed that a growth rate decre a sing from 0.29 per day to 0.14 per day translates to a 50 % - 5 9 % decrease in R 0 to between 2. 3 to 3.0 . This is in agreement with previous estimates of the impact of effective social distancing during 1918 influenza pandemic (18 ) . Thus, t h e reduction in growth rate ma y reflect the impact of vigorous control measures implemented and individual behavior changes in China during the course of the outbreak . The 2019 - nCoV epidemic is still rapidly growing and spread to more than 20 countries as of February 5 , 2020 . Here, we estimated the growth rate of the early outbreak in Wuhan to be 0. 29 per day (a doubling time of 2. 4 days) , and the reproductive number, R0,to be between 4.7 to 6.6 (CI: 2.8 to 11.3 ) . Among many factors, the Lunar New Year Travel rush in early and mid - January 2020 may or may not play a role in the high outbreak growth rate , although SARS epidemic also overlapped with the Lunar New Year Travel rush . How contiguous the 2019 - nCoV is in other countries remains to be seen. If the value of R0is as high in other countries, our results suggest that active and strong population - wide social distancing efforts, such as closing down transportation system, schools, discouraging travel, etc. , might be needed to reduce the overall contacts to contain the spread of the


#430

519 Confirmed cases outside of mainland China now. Interesting how the cases are shooting up under the radar (I wonder how many unconfirmed cases there are).


#431

Singapore appears to be a rising hotbed but I wonder if that is because they are open about what they are doing and are actually chasing down cases unlike their neighbours. Rumours that it’s got a foothold in North Korea.


#432

If any place can lock a population down it’s North Korea. I think Indonesia and Africa are the true ones to watch. Indonesia seems in total denial. It can’t be possible that there are no cases there. I think Singapore actually has a far far higher infection rate also, and we’ll hear of this in the coming weeks. Having said that, the stock market completely disagrees with me. Let’s see how that plays out.


#433

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/emergency_preparedness/planning/Pages/emergency-pantry-list.aspx

So what’s the death rate going to be when people get it a second, third, fourth time?


#434

Good medical summary of what is known so far. And more importantly, what is not known.

https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.6.2000110


#435

Jump in cases today due to adding clinically diagnosed to confirmed. Jump in deaths too but apparently no change in methodology there


#436

Another 44 testing positive on the Diamond Princess. That brings it to 218 total so far. I still believe that they have tested far below 1000. It seems like the ship has been there for quite a while now and look how long it’s taking them to test people, even in Japan. One of the most highly developed countries in the world. It goes to show that you can’t really trust the numbers from anywhere else on this.

Part of me wonders if being locked on that cruise ship is actually causing people to get infected also.


#437

I expected some change. After 2 weeks of discussion China allowed in the WHO mission this week. First point in agenda would have to be the reported numbers and diagnosis criteria. Besides, Chinese authorities must realise by now the game is up and dont want to burn up more credibility.


#438

Tianjin, health officials say a woman developed symptoms on January 25. Her tests on Feb. 5, 8, and 10 came back as negative. The test on Feb. 12 was positive for coronavirus


#439

Also with multiple tests being needed and 3k plus people on that ship then they didn’t rush to test because of the amount of kits needed


#440

Thanks for the pantry list Blindjustice. We’re starting to build back up our pantry. One of the things on the list is disinfectant. We’ve a lot of disinfectant and house cleaning products with different ingredients, so I searched for a products that killed COVID19 and I got this list from the Singapore Environmental Agency.

The products I reckon are unique to that region so I’m listing the ingredients that that website is saying is effective.

  1. Sodium hypochlorite (0.05 – 0.5%)
  2. 70% ethyl alcohol
  3. Povidone-iodine (1% iodine)
  4. Chloroxylenol (0.12%)
  5. 50% isopropanol
  6. 0.05% benzalkonium chloride
  7. 50ppm iodine in iodophor
  8. 0.23% sodium chlorite
  9. 1% cresol soap (sodium alkyl-ben-zene sulfonate)
  10. Accelerated Hydrogen Peroxide (0.5%)

These are the products I could find in my house that had these products.

  • W5 Thick Bleach
  • Dettol (Antiseptic Disinfectant) - contains Chloroxylenol and isopropyl Alcohol (which I think is isopropanol)
  • Boots baby sterilising liquid - Contains Sodium Chloride 2% W/W and Sodium Chloride 16.5 W/W

Things I have that I’m unsure about

  • any of the anti-bacterial wipes I have contain benzalkonium chloride (1.7g/Kg) which is only 0.0017% as opposed to 0.05% as advised by NEA of Singapore.
  • Lidl W5 toiled cleaner which seems to be mostly about making the Jacks smell nice.

Does anybody know of other cleaning products that might be useful? What kind of disposable gloves should I get?


#441

   https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1    Abstract
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
 

:open_mouth:


#442

On the flip side of all that, there is a case to be made not to be too clean, because you remove useful bacteria from yourself and your home environment to regularly leaving you open to vectors normally kept in check by friendly bacteria.

A healthy microbiome is crucial to fighting infections or reducing the severity of many seasonal ailments. An an Irish based GP might not advise taking pro-biotics after they prescribe a course of Anti-biotics but chances are, an Irish based Polish Doctor most likely will and may even include it on the script as a follow up course - I do wonder, also when antibiotics are prescribed in the case of what is a viral infection, which seems potentially counter-productive in some cases, as you run the risk of wiping out your healthy bacteria, leaving you even more vulnerable to the vector running riot then or another later and some GP’s will not disagree with this view, but I don’t offer it as medical advice, something to ponder and even question your GP’s outlook on the matter.

You only have to look at most highly organised and long running cultures to find, they often have as part of the traditional diet consumption of a food where a living bacteria culture (fermented foods) is the key active ingredient, take miso, Kefir and Kim-Chi to name a few more well known one easily available these days.

In Ireland it use to be butter milk, in the bottle or used to make Soda bread. The tis eof Pasteurisation across so many foods stuffs, milks cheese and so on remove our contact with both the good not just the bad, and if you are not replenishing it actively how do you expect it to stay in good shape?

At what point do we stop and achieve optimum preparation and positive outlook without compromising simple living?

Understandably if you have children it is always a worry. I reckon if you did two things, and i don’t suggest these are as simple to enact;

A) Increase in take of pro-biotics in the familia diet

B) Reduce overall sugar intake, that has to help, as sugar interferes with the cellular loading of Vitamin C and also feeds some other nasties too.


#443

First death in Japan. Woman in her 80s. (Edit: Yikes, looks like they only learned she had the virus post-mortem. She’d been in the hospital since last Friday).
That’s the third death outside of mainland China.
There are a few more cases in Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan also.
Seems to be approaching around 600 confirmed cases now and 3 deaths outside of mainland China.
I had read that someone died from it in UAE previously but I think this was a Filipino and is counted against the Philippines.
Still just 27 countries reporting cases which feels like it’s been the same for about a week. I’m pretty certain now that this is down to bad testing or no testing in less advanced countries.
Either way, it’s about 0.5% death rate of confirmed cases so far.
Hopefully some news organisation starts collating the information outside mainland China into easily digestible stats soon.