Coronavirus 2020

coronavirus

#4542

A scientist helping lead the World Health Organization’s investigation into the origins of the COVID-19 virus himself helped channel federal funding grants to the Wuhan Institute of Virology in 2019, the year prior to the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic…

…Yearlong speculations about the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s potential role in the pandemic were given fresh fuel this month when a State Department report alleged that workers inside the lab may have become sick with COVID-19 symptoms weeks before the pandemic is officially said to have begun.


#4543

Those with a questioning mind were listening to the likes of Prof. Dolores Cahill last spring who advocated for supplementing Vitamin D. This was dismissed in some circles as quackery.

Anyway the ‘experts from Ireland’s leading universities’ are now on the case and it’s from breaking news.ie so all is good.

Please take Vitamin D to protect against Covid-19, say Irish experts (breakingnews.ie)

Please take vitamin D to help protect against Covid-19 while the vaccine is being rolled out — this is the urgent message from a group of Irish medical experts.

The experts from Ireland’s leading universities have appealed to the Government to issue updated guidelines for all Irish adults on vitamin D supplements which, they say, can significantly reduce the risk of infection, serious illness and death from Covid-19

However, to date there has been no policy action despite the mounting evidence showing the benefits of supplementation, they say.

The group have pointed to studies describing significant reductions in death amongst older nursing home patients and substantial reductions in ICU admission rates amongst hospitalised Covid-19 patients following supplementation with vitamin D.

They also highlight emerging evidence from Andalucia in Spain, where a public health initiative to supplement all vulnerable groups including those in care homes with vitamin D coincided with a fall in daily Covid-19 death rates from 60 per day in mid-November to just three per day by the first week in January.


#4545

There have been many links and discussions, a few on here and not pushing for broad Vitamin D supplementation is on of the big mistakes in this whole saga. If Chairman Hologram had suggested on any of his regular broadcasts that we all boost vitamin D intake we might be in a very different place.


#4546

Misplaced targets, start protesting outside politicians and journalists homes. They are the ones leading this madness, just went on twitter so may blue checkmarks screeching for the country to turn into a shit version of North Korea.


#4547

https://mobile.twitter.com/ferozwala?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1353675838038962176|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

Coming to a country near you soon.


#4548

https://twitter.com/mcconnelldaniel/status/1353809069425963008


#4549

:joy::rofl::rofl::joy:


#4552

Considering the level of propaganda from governments and their media agents I’m sorry if my rather trenchant opinions have ruffled your feathers. That you are too thin skinned to deal with any push-back.

The numbers you keep quoting with certainty are not only fraudulent but we have documented here and provided primary source references and supported with relevant arguments why they are fraudulent.

There were not 8248 new cases of SARs CoV 2 infections on 8th Jan because the test used provides completely unreliable data on active infection state. These are not in any shape or form reliable clinical test data. They are wrong.

You do understand what Type I and Type II Errors are? This is very basic statistics. There have been multiple primary source reference posted here as to why the Type I error rate of the test used by the HSE is at least 50% and the Type II Error rate is 90% plus. So based on what you have written you show no level of understanding of just how inaccurate and often deliberately misleading official data actually is.

JMC you don’t understand statistics or mathematical analysis. I do. You said test numbers don’t do what they did in the real world. You’re in denial. This is the real world that’s what happened.

That made me laugh. I have been dealing with and fixing very dodgy mathematics in my day job, the stuff that very long PhD and text books are written about, for many decades. Probably way before you were born. And way beyond in complexity anything you seem to be familiar with. I have to known how it works and does not work because my work involves very big investments of time and money. Seven figure and up. Just had to write up a 20 page plus formal proof (serious amounts of squiggles) which will eventual go to publication. I am not some guy who once played around with MathLab, MAPLE or R as a school term project. My job is to cut through the bullshit written by people with very fancy credentials and make it work. Professors are the worst for producing garbage that does not work. I’m talking MIT, Standford and UC Berkeley here, not DIT.

You sound like someone who took a few units of stats for an undergraduate degree and considers themselves an expert. Oddly enough I’ve been discussing this very mathematics, testing, sampling, polluted data sets etc with one of my kids during this ongoing fiasco. They know a little about the subject as they are doing a pure math PhD in a very arcane area of statistical analysis.

Did you see or read any of the primary literature posted here. Everything I said is supported by the primary literature. I have many decades of reading not just scientific literature for work but the medical literature as my health depends on it. I have the same opinion of medical people as I do of lawyers, precisely because i have been dealing with then professionally for many decades. Some are good, some are useful, the rest are either bullshitting if the subject is anything out of the ordinary, or outright frauds.

And everyone in the decision chain of the Nphet and the HSE at the moment is not just a bullshitter but an out right fraud. Telling lies.

Find a testing curve like that, with that slope and peak in that timeframe, in any other western country.

You wont find it because all the data produced is not just polluted by normal data collection noise but is outright fraudulent. The person who OK’ed the acceptance and publication of the data post 12/15/21 knew that no real-world testing process could produce data points like that. Ever.

This is not the HSE and Dept of Health killing and maiming hundreds or thousands of people like with their usual scandals. Of which there have been so many of the years. Their criminal incompetence will kill many thousands of people from secondary effects, leave 15%/20% of the population unemployed, lost business or with much lower incomes and leave the country an economic wreck for many years.

And all this for a novel Hospital Acquired Pneumonia with typical human corona virus mortality rates.

These people should be in jail.

So sorry if my (and others here) very informed opinions upset your accepting the public narrative hook line and sinker. This site was created precisely due to the lock step group think pre 2008 financial collapse. The stake are a lot bigger now, far more serious. There was a lot of public bullshitting by the government and media per 2008 crash but as the stakes this time around are so much higher the outright lies being told have reached Soviet Union in the 1970’s and 1980’s levels.

I remember listening to the Soviet version of the news as broadcast on Radio Moscow back in the 1970’s. Came in loud an clear on medium wave after dark. RTE, IT, and Irish Independent coverage of COVID has been straight out of the Soviet Pravda/ Izvestia playbook from the 1970’s. To your average prole trudging around Tomsk or Minsk in 1978 anyone with a different opinion from that purveyed by the official organs was a crazy conspiracy theory loon.

I think you are just the brainwashed prole living in a dingy kommulka in Tomsk when it comes to COVID. While the rest of use here are busy researching and looking at primary sources, paying attention, and writing samizdat.


#4553

Lot of negative comments on twitter today about the new restrictions. Also the WHO (finally) amended their PCR guidelines last week, and done other synchronicities with various happenings so I’ve been having fun with a :exploding_head::exploding_head::exploding_head::scream::scream::scream: tweetstorm today!! :hugs: In large part because emotion (fear) based decisions can’t be reasoned with so I’m going the emotion route there… Logic won’t work to counter emotionally made decisions :slightly_frowning_face:

But yes, the arguments we have made here are evidenced-based, with primary sources. Different audience.

Does anyone have the link to that American journal quietly reversing their ban on HCQ? I’m wondering if I’ll add that to my tweetstorm.


#4554

Schools tend to concentrate on teaching calculus at higher level (at least mine did) and not probabilities & statistics. Older I get the more I wonder if that an intention of the indoctrination, oops education, system.

I do use stats in my day to day job, but know enough to understand my limits, and get advice from a good biostatician if I go anywhere off my beaten track. Stuff gets very complicated, multifactorial and math limitations/caveats can abound…


#4555

The biggest problem is there is a huge gulf between knowing something and understanding something. Those who just know a particular area of maths just know how to go through the steps to get a result. Those who actually understanding a particular area of maths know why those steps are done, and more importantly what the assumptions and limits are.

A great example is confidence interval. Which is found in pretty much ever medical research paper. Those who just know how to derive a confidence interval do the equations and quote the mid point value, the convention, which is the used as if its some concrete number. As if its the median on a normal distribution. The most probable value. Its is nt. The real world value has an equal probability of being anywhere in the confidence interval. So those who actually understand the maths just look at width often confidence interval first then the mid-value. If the width is 5 or less you have a very reliable value. Under ten is pretty good. Over ten and its just an interesting anecdote with some pretty graphs.

The vast majority of medical research papers have one of more key values in the conclusions that are based on values which have confidence intervals in the range 20 to 40 or more. So nothing more than an interesting anecdote with some pretty graphs.

And then we have people who create very complex models using partial differential equations etc who dont realize that ALL numerical solutions for these equations are based on inherently unstable approximation functions. Which have to be carefully tuned to get reliable values over partial ranges. The first thing I do when reading these guys papers, the big models guys, is do they know the assumptions and hacks that are build into to the black box math libraries they are using that makes them work at all. Almost none of the paper authors do because if they did the subject would get one whole section in the paper. Assumption and limits and cumulative errors.

People who know what they are doing in mathematics assume stuff will always go wrong. People who dont know what they are doing always assume nothing will ever go wrong.


#4556

Watch your 5kms now Paddy

‘Better late than never’ — Government finally crack down on travel

People arriving into Ireland without a negative COVID test will finally be forced to quarantine in hotels, under strict new travel controls.

The Government has been under pressure to put new arrivals into isolation amid growing concern over new highly transmissible COVID strains.

Following a similarly firm approach taken in Australia, the enforced two-week confinement will also apply to anyone travelling from South Africa and Brazil regardless of whether they have a negative test.

The mandatory isolation for passengers arriving here comes almost 11 months after the first case of COVID-19 was identified on these shores.

Leading health expert Dr Gabriel Scally last night said that the measures should have been introduced ‘a long time ago’ but it was better late than never.

https://extra.ie/2021/01/26/news/irish-news/mandatory-isolation-travel-controls


#4557

American Journal of Medicine article

HCQ was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in 1955, has been used by hundreds of millions of people worldwide since then, is sold over the counter in many countries, and has a well-characterized safety profile that should not raise undue alarm

when started earlier in the hospital course, for progressively longer durations and in outpatients, antimalarials may reduce the progression of disease, prevent hospitalization, and are associated with reduced mortality

image

https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(20)30673-2/fulltext


#4558

It’s time spent with datasets & experience too - my brain loves the maths, but I, like most people, just don’t have time to dwell with the data, plot it out and play with it, or gain expertise in model fits with any degree of confidence. Any institution only typically needs a small number with that level of expertise anyway. Arguably it makes more sense to have the majority spending time on straightforward analyses, but to have a biostatistics unit that reviews and fine-tunes study designs (pre-) and then inputs into dataset analyses (post) - so long as people engage with them appropriately.


#4559

#4560

Just had a comparative look at the “Lanzarote” press on diff platforms aiming to hold holidaymakers up as quisling-esque types deserving of tarring and feathering. It seems a bizarre story to focus on.

When I browse twitter on anonymous mode, pro lockdown, pro zero covid, pro condemnation is the norm commentary that is pushed or “trending”. When I sign in, its a mixture, mainly that the govt is incompetent. fairly even between pro and anti lockdown posts. Lots of bot comments.

FB is slightly different, Facebook articles/posts that are pushed or “trending” all hot air and condemnation, comment sections majority the total opposite, trend towards anti govt, anti lockdown.

Given the money the govt/NGO’s pump into comms and artificially curating a consensus, has there been any investigation or research into these type of stories. IMO, this, like the Trump, Direct Provision, EU etc coverage, is a sign of an artificial or agreed line that is being pushed. The only differentiation for the political class is that the Govt is not hammering the populace hard enough, but its uniform coverage all the same.


#4561

In my Twitter bubble I’m seeing some doctors being silenced, with the usual talking heads promoted. Must admit I haven’t gone on unlogged recently.

https://twitter.com/AmyMolloyIndo/status/1354126783986200583

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1354183570093387777


#4562

A post was split to a new topic: Manipulation of The Daily Reality - The Media is the Virus


#4563

My default is duck duck go these days…


#4564

From the indo piece

In a Twitter direct message, seen by Independent.ie , public relations consultant Conor Dempsey suggested to Dr O’Connor that people may see him “so stressed” on social media that they “might be concerned” if they were referred to him for treatment.

He wrote: “I hope it does not offend you, but do you ever wonder if some of the scrapes you get into online undermine your reputation? I mean that in the sense that people may see you as being so stressed, which you are very entitled to be, that they might be concerned if they are then referred to you for treatment?

“I think you are so brave in your advocacy and understandably fraught with all that is going on, but maybe being so active online works against optimizing your clinical role? We need advocates like you to speak, but you are almost too transparent and informative one would wonder if I was referred to a doctor who appeared so distressed.

“I am guessing also that you find your advocacy cathartic and I also believe in the need to agitate for change. But maybe less can be more?”

Archived link: https://archive.is/f9tsj

SSnakes.