Coronavirus 2020

coronavirus

#4646

Tell me @CMO_England Why your telling the public to wear masks and yet You DONT or is you know they do absolutely nothing (chain link fence vs mosquitoes)

Video @ Src: https://twitter.com/MISSXBUTTERFLYX/status/1356646198329962498

:ninja:


#4647

Only one mask? Thought we were up to two or three now? :thinking:


#4648

#4649

You will find most of the decline was in Blue states. The predication always was Trump loses, COVID disappears pretty quickly. Trump wins and COVID remain a huge “crisis” in the Blue states - until their service economy collapses that is.

The CDC change the RT/PCR testing protocol for SARs Cov 2 the day after the election. So the numbers of positives started declining pretty fast.

Although typically California screwed up the timing. The state made such a mess of testing that it was only when the election was almost over that the state testing process started delivering huge number of cases. Whereas Cuomo in NY had been shoveling sick old people back in into care homes since May and the state heath dept was forcing hospital etc to count everyone who ever had a sniffle as a COVID case. Hence the huge number of COVD case in NY state. Now that is party dedication for you.


#4650

Ireland is a Blue state, lo and behold, it is declining here.

Remember the WHO release about PCR sensitivity/tests had a publish date of the 13th of Jan.

Yet it was released on the 20th of Jan.

Guess what @Diana - the 13th of Jan was (wait for it…) … 3 weeks ago.


Archived link of WHO press release: https://archive.is/ewq39
PDF Link: 20th Jan WHO PDF


#4651

The data currently available are not sufficient to firmly assert whether SARS-CoV2 results from a zoonotic emergence or from an accidental escape of a laboratory strain. This question needs to be solved because it has important consequences on the risk/benefit balance of our interactions with ecosystems, on intensive breeding of wild and domestic animals, on some laboratory practices and on scientific policy and biosafety regulations.


#4652

Faux Qunadry begets Faux Dilemma

Google Translate from DUTCH:

Current legislation makes it possible for institutions and companies to make a vaccination certificate a condition for access to their services and facilities. The Health Council writes this on Thursday in an advice to the Ministry of Health. The cabinet has not yet drawn up a policy on how they want to deal with this.

According to the Health Council, asking for a vaccination certificate should not lead to discrimination, exclusion or violation of privacy rules.

In brief

  • Companies are legally allowed to request a vaccination certificate, but under strict conditions
  • For example, evidence must not lead to discrimination and must be justified
  • If a company implements this, it amounts to an indirect vaccination obligation
  • The cabinet has not yet drawn up a policy on how to deal with this legal basis
  • Minister Hugo de Jonge has stated several times that vaccinations must always be voluntary

Employers, healthcare institutions, schools, catering establishments and event organizers can in principle demand a vaccination certificate from visitors to protect the health of others, the Health Council writes. The researchers recognize that economic interests can also play a role. They also emphasize that the national government must supervise how companies want to use vaccination certificates.

“Whether the measure is justified may differ per setting,” said the advisory body. A so-called medical-ethical framework has been developed for this consideration. For example, institutions must be able to demonstrate that the vaccination evidence serves a legitimate purpose, that the measure is necessary to achieve that goal, that the benefits outweigh the disadvantages and that there is no less drastic way of achieving the goal.

The government should monitor whether companies adhere to the framework. It is not yet clear when proof of vaccination is a “legitimate purpose”. According to the Health Council, the cabinet can lay this down in legislation or leave it to sector organizations.

Advice sought due to concerns about indirect vaccination requirements

Outgoing Minister Hugo de Jonge (Public Health) had asked the Health Council for advice. The minister has repeatedly expressed his concern about possible disadvantages that a vaccination certificate in public places could cause. That could indirectly force residents to vaccinate themselves against COVID-19.

The Health Council writes that any form of urge to vaccinate requires a strict assessment of the importance of public health. Mandating a vaccination certificate, or, for example, imposing fines on citizens who do not want to be vaccinated, severely curtail the freedom of choice. The cabinet has already stated several times that it does not feel for such a duty.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=nl&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nu.nl%2Feconomie%2F6114300%2Fbedrijven-horeca-en-scholen-mogen-ongevaccineerde-mensen-weigeren.html


#4653

Now that is interesting. According to the HSE around 170 people died of COVID in December 2020 but according to the Society of Actualities in Ireland’s analysis of the real data, RIP.ie, the number of deaths in December 2020 was nt much different from other years.

Now the analysis of the January 2021 numbers will be very Interesting. For some reason I suspect the HSE is counting almost everyone who dies in an old peoples home. Or maybe its just the huge number of false positives from dodgy lab results for those two weeks over Christmas which most people who died “positive”.

Last year there were around 3200 deaths total for the month of January. A pretty typical number. According to the HSE around 1100 people died of COVID in January. So unless the total number of death notices for January 2021 is over 4300 the HSE will have some explaining to do.

Some more interesting data here…


#4654

Had a very quick look at the RIP postings for January. Very large number of duplicates. Maybe 25% or more. So will wait for the proper analysis.

Doing some random daily samples of the search results two or three days a week look about the same as last year 110/120 deaths per day. Another two days a week about 10% higher but very much within the random ups and downs with this kind of data. But at least two days a week have a noticeable much higher than last year number. A good 20% plus over last year. 140/150 range. I know there is a very distinct day of the week pattern to winter mortality rates but this looks more artificial. Given the number of people in ICU’s at at any given time could the weekly peak be correlated with the consultants doing the rounds of the ICU wards and deciding to pull the plug on the severe ARDs cases with no hope of recovery? And that decision needing to be signed off on by higher ups? That might account for the same pattern every week.

So more people did die this year than last year so now it will be interesting to see if the numbers were that much above the rates seen during previous very bad flu seasons.

Mortality rates seem to be up on last year but so far I see zero correlation between the ramp up to 22% positives rates of late December and any huge increase in morality 2 to 3 week later. Given those kind of positive numbers the number of deaths in second and third week of January should have been at least twice what they actually were given the far larger potential infection pool over last April. The first (and last) peak.


#4655

Twitter thread linking videos etc. of dissenting voices over the past months…

“How Many Non Zero Covid Cult Doctors Have Been Allowed On Mainstream TV In Ireland in 12 Months”

https://twitter.com/threadsirish/status/1357663769015508992


#4656

The actuarial blog is very interesting and a great find - looking forward to seeing their January analyses also!


#4657

Since the petition has received over 10,000 signatures, the government will have to respond, according to the official UK Parliament and Government Petitions policy. If it receives 100,000 signatures, the matter will be debated by MPs. However, parliamentary debates are uncertain, these days, due to the ongoing pandemic.

Previous petitions against restrictions for unvaccinated Brits have proved immensely popular. One last year, which calledgenerally on the government to “prevent any restrictions” on those who refuse vaccination, received 337,137 signatures and was debated in parliament in December.

“There are currently no plans to place restrictions on those who refuse to have any potential Covid-19 vaccine,” the government responded at the time, adding, however, that it “will carefully consider all options to improve vaccination rates, should that be necessary” – effectively refusing to rule the idea out completely.


#4658

One in six Covid-19 patients in NHShospitals in England were infected while being treated for other conditions, according to internal Health Service figures.

So far this month, 5,684 Covid-positive in-patients out of 44,315 – about one in eight – were infected after being admitted for other conditions.

An intensive care consultant in the Midlands said that he took a ‘snapshot’ of all the patients in his unit on one day last month and found that 40 per cent of them had been infected in hospital.


#4659

Additional report on HAI by RT:

During January, it has been reported*, more than 450 people were catching Covid-19 every day while in hospital in England for other medical reasons. Which means that, over the course of the month, nearly one in 10 people in hospital were infected. One in 10… 10 percent… This 450 figure is also likely to be significantly underestimated.

Earlier reports** have shown that, in some weeks, more than 20 percent of the new Covid cases are people infected in hospital.And the question has to be asked as to whether the number of infections in hospital is a disaster, an unforgivable error, or simply an inevitable consequence of having thousands of people crammed together in buildings full of ill people, many of whom are infected with Covid-19. My own experience of working in the NHS during January would suggest there is not much you can do.

*https://www.hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/over-450-people-a-day-caught-covid-in-hospitals-during-january/7029404.article

**https://www.hsj.co.uk/patient-safety/hospital-acquired-covid-infections-hit-record-high/7029149.article


#4660

Oh so we should all stay at home and self isolate to avoid getting infected?
On a seperate note the data coming out of Isreal is very encouraging. They are furtherest along with vaccinations.

Not the narrative most people on hear want to hear but very encouraging


#4661

I think you are wrong. I think many people want to believe the vaccine narrative.

The vaccination programme, rather than the national lockdown enacted a week later (and strengthened on January 5th), is the likeliest cause.

:rofl:


#4662

On the contrary - look above in this thread to see further parallels, with links to scientific articles, discussing previous research on Hospital Acquired Infections which regrettably cause deaths both here in Ireland, and abroad, every winter.

Along with links to INMO trolley counts from previous years / winters.


#4663

Just did a very rough look at the weekly RIP.ie numbers for the Week 1 to Week 4 in January. Definitely up on January 2020 numbers, by as much as 25%, but the curve is very odd. Looks like only weak correlation with the HSE published % positive curve for December / January but stronger correlation with the probable unpolluted % curve. But that is still not the driving force behind the shape of the curve.

A large part of the shape of the curve seems to be a simple reversion to mean. All lock-downs do is displace the time of deaths not the total number. So every time the lock-down is removed there is an automatic bulge in mortality rates starting three to four weeks later. Which is what started Week 2 of January. The reversion to mean.

That may account for up to half the excess deaths for the month. The peak in Week 3 is odd for two reasons. Its just too high to be purely explained by a low R0 infectious disease with only two weeks to develop any real breakout momentum. Now a serious outbreak of Hospital Acquired Pneumonia’s and related infections do have the time scale < 2 weeks to cause such a peak.

But it does look like at least from a very rough initial look at the RIP data that at least in Week 3 of January there was a peak death rate of around 170 per day, well about the usual 110, but since then the daily rate seems to be declining quickly to more typical numbers for this type of year.

So there was a very distinct in increase and peak in mortality rates in the third week of January and I am sure quiet a few of the extra deaths were mostly likely viral pneumonias but how many of those were actual community acquired SARs CoV 2 infections and how many were Hospital / Heath Care Acquired Pneumonia’s is yet to discovered. Based on current reliable data I would not be too surprised if the majority of the non-reversion to mean deaths were HAP’s/HAI’s.

We might have a better idea once more accurate analysis of the months data becomes available. I only did a very rough first pass.


#4664

Well the new variant is supposed to be more infectious and transmissible (despite having the same clinical course once caught) and cross-infection in hospital environments can always be an issue. Both the density of people on site, and the fact that in-patients will have reduced immunity / strength due to their underlying conditions.

So perhaps that increased transmissibility is affecting the curves? Just a thought, I’m no-where near as good a number cruncher as you!


#4665

You remember that huge increase in “cases” for a few weeks at the end of December / beginning of January. Well the peak of deaths from that wave should have happened in the last few weeks. Instead of the usual around 800 weekly deaths this time of year there should have been over 1500 weekly deaths with those kind of case numbers and with a CFR of 2.0%

But looking at RIP.ie and I am seeing search results that would indicate just over 1000 deaths per week for those few weeks. Still not a great number but that would seem to confirm that the number of new cases published by the HSE and all over the media during those few weeks Dec / Jan were overstated by at least a factor of 3X…

So yet another HSE scandal. Making public and acting upon huge numbers of unreliable test results from commercial labs.