Coronavirus 2020



Looking at the various modelling predictions in terms of when to relax restrictions - why is the conversation based almost exclusively around vaccination roll-out? And percentages of population who will be vaccinated by this or that date?

Surely herd immunity from already confirmed cases offers an even greater protection against future spread than vaccination? (That number is officially over 200,000 but probably up to five times that in real terms.

Also, seasonality is almost totally being ignored here - even though the timing couldn’t be better in terms of the current trajectory. We’ll have more vaccinated, and more confirmed (and actual cases) at a time when traditionally, respiratory infections reduce to almost nothing (as happened here last summer - with no vaccine and very few masks.)

Surely, on that basis the economy, hospitality, travel etc will be open by June at the very latest?


That’s not in the plan.

Science. Reasons.


My mother, a pensioner, brought some bags of garden waste to the local recycle centre today.
She asked one of the workers there to help her with the bags as they were quite heavy, they refused…because covid…she even offered one of them a tenner but no go.
Eventually another lady offered to help her.
Honestly it just makes me sad when people loose their humanity like this.


It’s not just lost humanity, its lost minds. It is a mental illness.


Fear is the mind killer…


Nice video, 10 minutes, comparing January 2015 & January 2021.

Nothing new, but a well produced summary.



Cant just post the link to the vid. Worth watching.


Direct link to that video -


Thanks OW


Looking at how the numbers plot from Jan 19th onwards, they form a very uniform wave, nothing like it historically anywhere in the data that I can see at this scale from early 2020 onwards.

This looks more like a reporting cycle feed i.e. it looks entirely artificial.


RED LINE = Deaths


Looks like two big data drops during the work week and a back ground day to day level. So at least 4 data feeds, one 7 days a week (low) , one 5 days a week (lowish), and two others once a week, on different days (big drops). Would not be too surprised if the big data drops are from old peoples homes etc. And if I were a betting man I would expect the two big drops data to be mostly normalized out if proper epidemiological data analysis was done.

So if one was to factor out the lock-down displacement deaths, the reversion to mean ones, and the everyone has COVID but no-one seems to have influenza deaths, I’d guess the final excess mortality curve from viral pneumonia will look just like a very bad flue season. Because very bad flu seasons have excess mortality curves just like this. You can get waves of increase deaths that last weeks anytime from October till April. Sometime two or three, but often only one.

But what happened from later December onward looks mostly like a casedemic. The trailing 21 day death rates bore no relationship to the reported new case numbers. I dont think the CFR suddenly dropped 60% or 70% in the space of a few weeks and has now returned to around its pre December value.


What I’ve also noticed is that the numbers in key columns are constantly being revised retrospectively, often going back days, weeks or even months.

So some of data is reported or assumed static but is actually dynamic, for a long time.

You will only catch this is if you periodically taking dataset snapshots once a week, the “dynamic” nature of the numbers becomes more apparent. :whistle:


On I think the sixth of February, they specifically said 18 of the 55 deaths reported that day were actually from January. I remember I stopped looking at my own R0 back in perhaps May / June, because of additional backdated results, which just made keeping accurate track my derately inaccurate and highly annoying.


June Shannon reporting a breakdown of the mortality figures.

Of the 1,202 deaths from covid-19 in January, 451 were associated with outbreaks of covid-19 in nursing homes, of the 195 deaths to date in February, 75 were associated with outbreaks in nursing homes


Mystery man, Peter Daszak was part of WHO team who investigated possible origins of virus from lab in Wuhan.

" Daszak was named by the World Health Organization as the sole U.S.-based representative on a team sent to investigate origins of the COVID-19 pandemic,[29] a team that also includes Marion Koopmans, Hung Nguyen, and Fabian Leendertz.[29]"


Hard science is on the loose once more saving us from ourselves, and has detected the latest threat:

Why speaking english may spread more coronavirus

'Course we have a cure for that … :ninja:


Peter Piper picked a peck of pickled peppers.
A peck of pickled peppers Peter Piper picked.
If Peter Piper picked a peck of pickled peppers,
Where’s the peck of pickled peppers Peter Piper picked?

Even worse if you’re this fella.


I don’t get it. What am I missing?


Spittle I think. So be thankful :slight_smile:


Varadkar in yesterdays ‘paper of record’ stating restrictions on foreign travel will be needed probably well into next year, surely this will be open to a legal challenge? The right to travel is in the constitution? No?

Once the first million are vaccinated we should be able to go back to near normal, as now starting in Israel, see the divergence between the vaccinated/unvaccinated cohorts…