Looking at the various modelling predictions in terms of when to relax restrictions - why is the conversation based almost exclusively around vaccination roll-out? And percentages of population who will be vaccinated by this or that date?
Surely herd immunity from already confirmed cases offers an even greater protection against future spread than vaccination? (That number is officially over 200,000 but probably up to five times that in real terms.
Also, seasonality is almost totally being ignored here - even though the timing couldn’t be better in terms of the current trajectory. We’ll have more vaccinated, and more confirmed (and actual cases) at a time when traditionally, respiratory infections reduce to almost nothing (as happened here last summer - with no vaccine and very few masks.)
Surely, on that basis the economy, hospitality, travel etc will be open by June at the very latest?