Coronavirus 2020



I was actually posting this before but I think my connection is bad and it didn’t load. It’s well worth watching, just 11 minutes. It’s his most fascinating one yet in my opinion. Sounds as if there are very very likely 500+ or even 1000+ cases in Iran right now, if they could do the proper tests.
His contact is saying 750 suspected cases but also it seems like there are multiple towns with it.
What I don’t get, is why has Iran exploded like that. The deaths are a clear give away in my opinion of the real numbers. They are not capturing most people when we see the deaths start to spike.

The authorities seem to be saying 5 - 13 deaths but even his contacts are saying there are many more. It must have been circulating widely in Iran for quite a while now. I don’t get why this is though? Other countries are visited far more by Chinese tourists. There’s something a bit weird going on that Iran is spiking on deaths like that more than Japan or South Korea who get far more tourists. And, Iran is not supposed to be terrible on Healthcare apparently. Maybe they have some direct business ties to Wuhan. Could be for oil powering the factories there or something.


Here is some background as to why the Chinese government are desperate to have the epidemic officially start winding down in the next week or two.

"Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, can be regarded as the economic think tank of the Communist Party of China. He said at a seminar that if the epidemic is controlled in January, the main economic impact is consumption, with emphasis on catering, accommodation, entertainment, tourism, and transportation. Transport and other services.

If it is controlled in February, the impact will be extended to the physical industry, which involves industry, construction, and agriculture; if it is extended to March, the impact will be long-term productivity, and a large number of companies will not be able to fulfil their contracts, and will not be able to pay wages or cash. If you can’t support it, you will go bankrupt. At this time, you are hurting.

He therefore suggested that the authorities should strive to contain the epidemic by the end of February. In fact, we have seen that the government has begun to launch a public opinion offensive to control the epidemic at the end of February. What big data statistics, official notification data, expert predictions, etc. have come."

Cannot find any primary or secondary sources in English. Quote is from this article.

Usual caveats apply to the source, although so far it has been reasonable accurate. Indirectly referred to here.

China went into the crisis with its economy already pretty shaky especially the SOE’s. The current situation is increasing reminding me of 1989 in Japan. In the two decades before they could not put a foot wrong and during the 1980’s Japan looked unstoppable. MITI was all powerful. Then 1989 happened and the bubble burst and we have now had three “Lost Decades” since then.

I think we have have just witnessed Peak China. Just like we had Peak Japan in 1989.


The are a few things that make this virus a longer term problem for China and everyone else.
Many asymptomatic carriers
Unreliable testing
Modern/ globalised travel patterns
Every one is looking at shorter term economic impacts of shutdowns and quarentines
Longer than 14 day incubation periods in some people.
Potential to run rife in poorer nations

Maybe there might be a vaccine next year as I don’t see it disappearing.
For now those over 65, Smokers and those with respiratory disease or diabetes are in the firing line.


Article about transmission… current thinking is that the virus is primarily spread by droplets of breath, hence most people are catching it within families or from their close patient contact as medical workers. But it’s clearly very contagious given some of the stories we hear like the South Korean religious woman ? The current thinking is that the virus is not itself ‘independently’ airborne wandering and being contracted. So social distancing is the key thing ? It’s really hard to see how to have society functioning normally in such times.

The Chinese have delayed and lied but they have bought us some time with their draconian measures. But what good have we done with that time ?

In terms of tips, I have found this oximeter as useful for monitoring the family’s health>Oximeter.htm

My HR is 78 and oxygen saturation is 97% now. If your oxygen % is in the low 90s that would mean a trip to hospital. And when I had a sudden pneumonia my HR was over 100 - tachycardia.


JSP make masks for DIY/Construction sectors and are quite a popular brand across the UK/Ireland.

2 of their factories have been requisitioned by the Chinese Government, which is understandable under the circumstances.


Just had a thought there, if the virus really did take a hold, you might not get a U.S. Presidential election happening in November. That would probably be worst case scenario health-wise, but they’d likely go to war footing and keep the same President.


I wonder if bio lab in Wuhan is still active…

Chemitrails? fuck it we will spray you in your face baby:

once a week home exit permit is cancelled:

I can’t imagine any of it happening in any other place in the world…


Over 100 cases now in Italy and 2 dead. The locations of the deaths are very far apart. I suspect there must be a lot more people infected.

One of the deceased is from Padua and the others in his family are also infected. Padua is not too far from Venice which has about 20,000 visitors a day in February.


I had a very bad flu back in november.
Im mid-40s and fairly fit, dont smoke and work alone.

Dont know how I got it but it hit me for six - I was literally out for 6 weeks. Just couldnt shake it.
Coughed so hard at one point I broke a rib (hence the 6 week stint).
Very hard on my lungs. Noticably so.

If I’d heard of Coronavirus then I’d have sworn that was it.

Was told by friend that a work colleague or hers was ‘laid out’ with a flu and was in such a state that a nurse was visiting her daily. That was back in Nov/dec in UK.


The Prez Election in November will not be a affected by any possible epidemic due to postal voting, absentee ballots, etc. Already 60% plus rates in some state / federal elections and some city/county elections are now postal only.

It the COVID-19 is still a really big deal in November it will be a a postal only election in some / most states. But the elections in November will happen and at the moment it looks like it will be a rerun of 1984/1972. The candidate who the media really hates will win. Possibly even by a landslide again. If the Bernie Bros go rogue and its a three way. Now that would be fun. Even Cal and Mass might be in play. Then it would be a 1912 election. But the other way around.


The initial reporting around Italy neglected to mention that it’s not a traceable case :frowning: I was wrong about the football. I checked the liveScore app for some results and saw nearly all the matches went ahead :icon_eek: It looks like nothing is being done to prevent this until it hits a Country and because of the delay in showing symptoms whilst also shedding virus, it means that it’s infected a lot of people before actions are taken.

That PT-PCR testing has a lot of parts that have to be done right in order to get it correct, collecting and storing samples could be problematic. The write up of that testing procedure is very good BTW. I never did chemistry or biology but even I could make some sense out of it.


Basically for most people COVID-19 is just a very bad flu. Those who show symptoms. It only when it turns into viral pneumonia and you have a respiratory/pulmonary precondition, or are just unlucky, that it become life threatening. In most cases when it becomes ARDS and they have to stick you on ventilators in the ICU.

The number so far seem to look like this.

The final infection rate for COVID-19 in the general population will eventually reach 60%. Its just a matter of whether the first half of the infections happen in 3 month or 18/24 month. If compressed into 3 months then its a very big problem as health services are overwhelmed. More than half of the final death toll in a serious epidemic are not those with the diseases but those who die from other preventable conditions that do not receive adequate medical treatment because of lack of available medical resources due to huge load of epidemic patients.

So the purpose of the quarantine by this stage is to greatly slow the spread of COVID not to stop it. That opportunity was lost, to stop it, once the virus escaped into the Wet Meat Market and the authorities tried to cover it up. So the best hope now is to spread out the infection period in the rest of the world from a few months to a few years. Thats all that can be done now.

So 60% of the population in the next few years. Based on initial reports at least half of those infected seem to by asymptomatic. No strong physical symptoms. Of those who show strong symptoms about 80% will have something like you had. A very nasty flu. This is not a head cold. If its anything like swine flu you will know you have it and you will not forget it afterwards.

The rest, the 20%, who have more serious symptoms seem to be overwhelmingly older, more male, and with prior conditions. Those with the serious per-conditions are those who tend to end up as the 5% or so who need serious medical treatment when it turns into viral pneumonia. The mortality rate is about 50% for those cases when it turns into ARDS. Which is where you get the (current) 2% mortality rate.

So in the next year or two it looks like 50/50 you might get infected with COVID-19. Another 50/50 it might show symptoms and turn into a very bad flu. If no preconditions or not too old thats about as far as it seems to go in most case. Old or preconditions and then its gets hairy if it turns into viral pneumonia.

So stock up on hand sanitizers (isopropanol ones) wash your hands and clean hard surfaces like you have a really bad case of OCD. Dont touch your face and if you have to be in crowed places maybe a N95 mask might help. That should stack the odds in your favor quite a bit.


Just checked those football matches myself from this weekend. Massive games in the North of Italy in all the regions affected, with teams such as Juventus, Milan, Napoli, Lazio, some playing right now.

Keeping in mind what JMC is saying above, I actually think that a lot of governments realise that there is no stopping this and they are letting it come into the country, then going on lock down which will give the medical services time to deal with the first load of people infected, and then they’ll have some immunity in the community. Then they’ll end any lockdowns and the process will begin again.


Once there are suspected cases in Dublin, the A/E departments will be overwhelmed with those with any hint of a cough. Then, the SHTF…


By the way, I think it’s officially a global pandemic now considering there is person to person infection on two continents where there is no link to the original source. As far as I can remember that was the criteria the WHO gave.


Yes, no longer a Chinese problem. This is very worrying.



To say the situation in Italy today is confused is, as always with Italy, a bit of an oxymoron. The small towns in Pavia province are under strict quarantine. As of this morning most public places are being shutdown in and around Milan, except schools. Maybe. But this is being argued about. So who know what may or may not open tomorrow.

Now the first thing that struck me yesterday is exactly what tests for COVID are the Italian using. This is reinforced by a story about the supposed Patient Zero in Pavia. Who turned-out to not being infected. But the news story said he did not have any “antibodies”. Which if correct is exactly the sort of test that has a high false negative rate. He had just returned from China.

Anyway, it looks like its in Italy now. It seems that the Italian government only yesterday decided that it might be a good idea to maybe keep tabs on people returning from visiting China. And it seems there are still Chinese tourists wandering around. One of the other cases came from a Chinese tourist.

Whats still very odd about the big Italian outbreak is just who is getting infected. This is not like the pattern in France, Germany or UK so far. Where Patient Zero for each case is easy to work out. In Italy it looks like most/or even all of the infected who first showed up a few days ago have the profile of the sort of people who are way down the infection generation chain. Like Gen3 or Gen4 or greater. Which is why I get a sense of panic in the authorities in Lombardy. They have no real idea of the infection chain and the indications are that it is quite deep by this stage.

So lots of shouting and finger pointing, overreaction and under-reaction. And stories of panic buying in the supermarkets today. So pretty much business as usual.


This is kind of wild if true. I think South Korean confirmed infections might continue to increase quickly.

99 out of 102 people in the psychiatric department of a hospital in SouthKorea tested positive for #COVID19 infection.


Yep you’re right. They’ve stopped most of the Serie A games today, yesterdays all went ahead, although oddly they are allowing the two Roman teams play. One in Rome and the other in Genoa. The Serie B and C games are being played but I’ve no idea of the attendances but still they should probably knock them all on the head.