Coronavirus 2020

coronavirus

#6062

Antigen tests have about the same true positive rate as RT/PCR tests. Around 50%. They give the correct result with active infections about 50% of the time. RT/PCR only reaches the minimum detection limit in last 50% / 33% of an active infection.

Antigen tests have about a 5% false positive rate. Usually due to misreading. RT/PCR tests have a 90% plus false positive rate when used as a low prevalence screening test.

Unless the person tested has at least moderate clinical symptoms of pneumonia a RT/PCR test will be 90% plus false positives. But an antigen test will be only 5% false positive.

So almost all antigen test positive are true cases and almost all RT/PCR test positive are not. Like 90% plus of “cases” reported by the HSE for starters.


#6063

Test in a clinical environment and forget everything else.

Visiting a local Doc or A&E Dept / Hospital should be the only trigger event for a range of responses, one of those can be a test if required. That’s it. This debate is nothing but a distraction.

When have we ever tested healthy people to see if they are sick?


#6064

Think carefully before going too far down that route, we already have several cancer screening tests that hopefully provide early detection to prevent serious illness.

They appear to be using the same logic here.


#6065

That’s a valid point, but screening isn’t binary pursuit either but I don’t think I know enough here. Only anecdote.

In this instance. It is in the context of allegedly highly infections diseases where no symptoms are one of the symptoms. Is that a first?

Screening is normally applied to the undetectable in early stags silent non-infectious pathologies, like cancer is not infections, but if you go down the parasite / inflammation angle, then it has the potential to be as such, are some cancers symptomatic of parasitical infections, and as you know parasites need to spread and have a life cycle. Oh look, I’m back at ivermectin and HCQ again, and you will note it’s common more than not, to encounter an operational blindspot to parasites and the subject thereof within your typical health forays with western health systems - because we’re not the 3rd world right, and we live cleaner etc. etc., so it’s not a problem, do we have a false cofiramtionbias at play here too, are we really sure it’s not a problem?

Also, we don’t quarantine the yet to be screened, but should we? :icon_eek:


#6066

Screening for cancer also has the mathematical issue with false-positives in a low prevalence population. Some tests are highly sensitive, but not very specific, so screening programmes have to be designed to take everything into account.

Tests can have false negatives too of course, so a decision has to be made on how frequent to make the tests according to risk etc. so that a false negative is likely to be caught on a follow-up test of it does occur etc.


#6067

If you can, try to catch the hourly news this afternoon on Dublin radio stations, might have been 103.8, or their shared service.

They did vox pops with young people about “the reopening in October”.

More than one person effectively said “I don’t believe it will open then. I don’t believe anything they say any more. I don’t bother listening to their updates”

I imagine the FF FG internal polling is looking Titanic.

From February


#6068

Here we go again. Barely has the ink dried on the reopening plan and NPHET have to weigh in with the doom and gloom fear-mongering.

This was Leo about six weeks ago…just before indoor dining. (We’re running at less than half that number for the last few weeks.)


#6069

Don’t forget the merchants of doom who stated that the UK was going to get over 200,000 cases a day when they opened up at the start of August! It did rise slightly to 30,000 a day but with few seriously ill or deaths.

The shouting about it only being unvaccinated who were getting ill seems to have quietened down recently as well.


#6070

Yup.


#6071

From Morgoth’s Review on Telegram

I’m pretty sure the mind-benders know that talk of people being on their 4,5,6 vaccine shot is absurd. What I think we’ll see emerge is a system wherein the length of time since your previous vaccine is what counts rather than how many you’ve had.
‘‘Your booster is due in two weeks’’ is easier to swallow than ‘‘Time for vaccine number 11’’
The quantity of vaccines will be hidden within ‘‘length of time since’’.


#6072

As soon as the media started insisting that vaccination was the only ‘solution’ it made me think of the regular ‘treatments’ administered in this Ira Levin story.


#6073

NK says NO, saying they don’t trust the effectiveness of the vaccines.


#6074

I hadn’t looked in a while, but Seamus Coffey is still doing his excess deaths posts regularly.

https://mobile.twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1433090438911692814

Currently, it looks like 10-15% excess per week atm. It will be interesting to see how this evolves over the coming months…

And the Scottish figures,
https://mobile.twitter.com/scojw/status/1433365370493153281

Another week, another figure at the high end of the range for the last 20 years. These are high, although not incredibly so, but more that they are consistently at the upper end, week after week.
14 straight weeks above average

with a lot more detail, but similar excess - TLDR:

where we are seeing excess, it is

  • ‘Others’, cancer and heart disease/stroke
  • Occurring at home
  • In older age groups

#6075

Trying to find the stats for all 1 + 2 doses to update charts but not having much luck.

In overall stats, there is a noticeable drop off in injection numbers, like off a cliff looking at the ECDC figures, if any one sees a break out by #1 #2 totals anywhere, do post the link here!

Perusing this propaganda dashboard setup by the anti-irishtimes: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-vaccine-tracker-how-many-people-have-been-inoculated-in-ireland-1.4481095

I looked at this a few weeks ago I am almost sure and the last two demographics don’t seem to have budge much at all, of course I could be mistaken.

ECDC stats https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#uptake-tab

Finally, looking at the latest ongoing trending in the bogus cases that are “suspected cases”, it looks manufactured, but manufactured by the injection program beachhead.

Yep, never seen anything like this in the curve, non-seasonal, mechanically stepping up, like a fore wave before the Tsunami arrives and you have probably already noted their 5000 cases a day no problemo etc. etc. it’s all winding down yada yada.

Still no lab volume stats available, with returns to workplaces we will not be able to tell if it is Lab derived manufacturing cases as th test nazis go into overdrive, and then the ADE and /or wave of adverse reactions that happen days, weeks and months after the shots, are well and truly ramping up, not merely begun.

Deaths are also a mess in terms of data. I’d assume now the numbers are just being fudged again somewhere and that’s it, covering the tracks of the means that is unfolding in real human suffering at the hands of the State, Big Pharma and the HSE.

The one to watch is Israel. That will be Ireland futures and it is no looking good one bit.


#6076

Very interesting comments on an interesting article. In the space of a few months the vaccine effectiveness was essentially non-existent with vaccinated and unvaccinated contracting the virus at equal rates.

the table in that article discloses that in July 75.2% of cases, all symptomatic, were in fully-vaccinated workers. The workforce was 83.1% fully-vaccinated at that time.


#6077

That all depends on how you describe effective, no?

Effective. Safe and effective.


#6078

What I mean is that statistically there was no difference between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated in their chance of becoming symptomatically infected. Therefore the vaccine is ineffective as it offers no additional protection above baseline after a few months based on this study.

Edit: more data from Israel

What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,” says Uri Shalit, a bioinformatician at the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) who has consulted on COVID-19 for the government. “One of the big stories from Israel [is]: ‘Vaccines work, but not well enough.’”


#6079

The SARs CoV 2 vaccines was never going to be as effective as the Influenza vaccines. Because human corona viruses make a more difficult target than Influenza viruses. The flu shot is 50% to 20% effective in the general population and wears off in less than a year. The flu shot is a strong effect vaccine. Single shot, no adjuvant.

The SARs CoV 2 is a weak effect vaccine, two shots, strong adjuvant. The vaccine protection of a weak effect vaccine is far less than 90% of those vaccinated with a strong vaccine. Maybe 60% max. Often far less.

And the published Pfeizer efficacy decay curve used a Log Y axis scale. Which tells you all you need to know. Even they knew the supposed efficacy decayed very quickly in a few months. Which using the log Y axis scale hid.


#6080

The Flu

Gotta love an aul fact check:

2020

Trump, March 24: I brought some numbers here. We lose thousands and thousands of people a year to the flu. We don’t turn the country off, I mean every year. Now when I heard the number — you know, we average 37,000 people a year. Can you believe that? And actually this year we’re having a bad flu season. But we lose thousands of people a year to the flu. We never turn the country off. We lose much more than that to automobile accidents. We didn’t call up the automobile companies, say, “Stop making cars. We don’t want any cars anymore.” We have to get back to work.

Src: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/09/trumps-deceptive-comparison-of-the-coronavirus-to-the-flu/

2021

Tim Pool @Timcast

So the death rate is actually comparable to the flu?

Quote Tweet

Jack Murphy :crossed_swords::crossed_swords:@jackmurphylive

Holy shit. So the cdc did a study where they analyzed blood donations for antibodies. They discovered that they’ve under estimated covid infections by HALF. Which means twice as many people have gotten it. And the death count is same…so the lethality has been overstated twitter.com/jackmurphylive…

Src: https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/1433776737352048644

Survey: More than 80% of Americans 16 and older have immunity

More than 80% of Americans 16 and older have some level of immunity against the coronavirus, mostly through vaccination, a survey of blood donations indicates.

The survey, led by the CDC, also indicates that about twice as many people have been infected with the virus as have been officially counted. More than 39 million Americans have been diagnosed with coronavirus infection since the pandemic started in 2020.

The team, led by the CDC’s Dr. Jefferson Jones, set out to determine how close the US might be to some kind of herd immunity – although they do not claim to have any kind of handle on that yet.

They worked with 17 blood collection organizations working in all 50 states plus Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico to test blood covering 74% of the population. In the end, they tested about 1.4 million samples.

In July 2020, before any vaccine was available, 3.5% of samples carried antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. That rose to 11.5% by December, they reported in the medical journal JAMA. By May, 83.3% of samples had antibodies to the virus, most of them from vaccination.

And while in July 2020, blood surveillance indicated the US was only counting one infection out of every three true infections, that fell to one in two a year later.

This was all pre-Delta, the researchers caution. Plus, they didn’t measure the other part of the human response – one involving cells known as T-cells – and one that might induce broader immunity. But knowing who has antibodies can help inform public health efforts.

“Several large studies have shown that among individuals who are seropositive from prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 incidence is reduced by 80% to 95%, similar to vaccine efficacy estimates,” they noted.

“The study will continue until at least December 2021, and results will be made available on the CDC’s website,” they wrote.

Thing is, did the injections wipeout immune systems life acquired memory only to be replaced with some spurious part from costly costly pharma. :thinking:


#6081

“short illness” :syringe:

Short illnesses represent a deadly killer in our society, be happy with your long covid and stuff, small mercies ya’ll! :whistle: