Coronavirus 2020


#1068

Can anyone explain how a system which encourages people and the over 70s to self-isolate for 14 days is compatible with ‘not hoarding’?
Secondly with restrictions being brought in on bulk purchasing in shops, how are people supposed to buy extra for housebound elderly?

It follows that at some point rationing must be introduced - a family of 5 cannot have the same entitlement to say, bread or milk, that a single person has?

From that it follows that ‘money’ will be suspended and some sort of govt vouchers for food at least will become legal tender - its easy to distribute for the most at risk via existing pension and child benefit payments and it ensures balanced and fair distribution of goods.

What it will so for the local currency on the other hand…


#1069

The hoarding will be over in a few days once people see that the shelves keep getting stocked. Varadkar saying that 15,000 people will get this by the end of the month is still only 0.3% of the population and many of those won’t be working age. 99% of those working today will still be working in 2 weeks time. Hard to see the collapse of the supply chain in that situation.

There was a good article during the week quoting people from Dublin Port saying that container traffic was badly down from China but now recovering. Nothing lasts forever, even the bad stuff.

“The Chinese were shipping nearly nothing a few weeks ago. Now they’re starting to take orders again and are operating at somewhere between 30pc and 50pc of their normal capacity. It’s a remarkable turnaround,” said one.

“We would normally handle several hundred containers a week from China, but that has slowed to a trickle over the past few weeks,” said the other. “Fortunately, we can see light at the other end of the tunnel.”

Both sources said China’s return to production and export activity meant that, right now, some goods that should have arrived this week in Ireland are being loaded into containers in one of China’s six top ports. It can take six weeks for Chinese goods to make their way here via European ports so they should arrive from late April onwards, the sources said.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/port-losing-1000-containers-a-week-in-china-imports-39046515.html


#1070

Is hoarding about stocking up or about having enough so you can limit going outside


#1071

There are a lot on initiatives being driven by herd mentality on social media. They are classic one-dimensional analysis (which those charged with planning don’t have the luxury of). So restaurants and cafes are pressured to close but maybe we need their take-away capability for key workers, morale and coping with self-isolation. Limits on buying but maybe its better to shop for two weeks and then lock-down. Elderly only hours but should we be encouraging the elderly out at all. Feeding the doctors and nurses for free may sound great (and I am not sure how they plan to do it) but it is a massive single point of failure if it is done without proper consideration of food hygiene throughout the chain to get it to the staff. I feel we should listen to the guidance and work to it and by all means seek clarification on an initiative which could help but maybe avoid too many solo runs without proper analysis.


#1072

Doesn’t appear to be seasonal:


#1073

Here is the Imperial College Report that has been the basis of the UK government response.

The model looks very reasonable, in fact a bit on the optimistic side with some of the values used. The conclusions are not just bad but actually catastrophic. There is a very good reason why Boris looks so worried. In fact Macron in his speech to the nation last night looked very seriously rattled.

The lock downs only buy us time. Nothing else. It just dampens the first infection wave. But the moment the lock down is relaxed then the wave builds again to original strength in about 90 to 120 days. And will keep returning every 60 / 90 days or so, peak on a slow decay curve, until first population saturation point is reached, about 60% / 70% of the population. Or a vaccine goes into widespread deployment.

Limited deployment maybe 150/180 days away but 10’s millions of shots will be another 180 days away at lest. And this will be for a very experimental vaccine which will have major side effects. That is a given.

So governments are facing a very stark choice. The long term economic viability and survival of their countries or the deaths of up to 10% of their over 65 population in the next 18/24 months… Because a country cannot be on permanent lock down for the 12 / 18 months needed for a vaccine to have a major impact. If the first vaccines are effective.

The current lockdowns cannot last for more than 60 to 90 days without serious political and social unrest and they will cause immense economic damage. Much worse than 2008. When the next wave of infections start building late summer / early autumn the ability and political will to do the same kind of lock down in most countries is unlikely to be there. So the really big wave of deaths will start in the autumn. And continue to ebb and flow till a reliable vaccine comes online.

So the world you have lived in since 1989 of loose borders , hassle free travel and wide trade networks is over. For good. For a start those countries which have been very successful with suppression like Singapore and Taiwan will demand either a current SARs 2 test result or proof of vaccination before issuing a visa. That is just one example of how its going to return to the old pre globalization way of doing things. There will be many more. In every area.

I was just thinking of a conversation I had just after the collapse of the Soviet Union with a friend who was old enough to remember 1917. He had seen a lot of the world in his 90 plus years and he was musing that he had seen both the birth and demise of Communism. The two most important events of the 20’th century. I think when the history of the post 1989 world is written in the future 2020 will be considered as much an era defining date as 1917 and 1989. Our world just changed fundamentally. We will not be returning to the pre pandemic world.

So it looks like we are in for a really really awful year or two.

Stay safe.


#1074

Give all that there is a strong case for just letting the airline industry die. The thought of pumping resources into it is madness. When it’s needed it will pop back to life like an amnesiac.


#1075

My point from earlier on is that govts need to introduce a ‘White’ economy (as opposed to a black one).

This is the only way social order can be maintained.

A Year Zero policy -a reset - like moving from ReichMarks to DeutscheMarks.
All your money is useless, only the new money is legal.

We need a scheme like WW2 rationing to maintain order and prevent complete collapse.

This is just Indo guff to stop the plebs from panicking about supply lines.
I can scarely believe a Pin reader isnt able to see through this stuff.
Less than a month ago, China was in full-on collapse-mode. Now theyre back pumping out tinsel and Xbox controllers with narry a beat missed.
Complete horseshit, if you believe this you should be posting on P.ie


#1076

Plenty of other sources around the shipping industry to read. You can even watch the ships moving in and out of the ports in almost real time on some websites.

Easy enough to check if you wanted to.


#1077

There is probably a good chance to stop it in ireland if we kill the first wave (2 or so months) and then seal the borders. No need for visas. This buys another 6 ~ 8 months.

In the mean time rapid and extensive testing and hopefully drugs will help.

SARS drugs are showing some promise and vaccine trials have started. The biggest fly in the ointment would be northern ireland.

The UK initial response of let them die was likely to have resulted in a situation that made the peasants revolt look like the chelsea flower show.


#1078

Eastern Asia, panic is gone. People behaving normally with a new level of caution. You can order anything on an Amazon equivalent here and have it at your door in under 24 hours. Shops fully stocked, brimming with disinfectant gear, alcohol wipes and hand gel. Can order Face-masks, have them at your door in under 24 hours. Virus barely made a dent in the overall food supply chain, even during peak panic. Most shops/supermarkets around me were always open. Some Fruit/Veg was not restocked as much for about 2 weeks, plenty of alternatives. Fresh milk was the only real thing lacking. Rumours of a collapse have been greatly exaggerated. Many businesses, barbers, music stores, pubs, shops, supermarkets, Burger Kings, etc. open. Buses, metro, trams, even Taxi’s I believe never stopped working.

This guy below gives some analysis of the Diamond Princess data. 7 dead out of an elderly population. Total number onboard of about 3500. Only around 700 infected even though hardly any precautions were taken to stop people getting infected. More like a petri-dish than a quarantine. I am not a fan of how he minimises the coronavirus at the end as I still think doing that takes from the message. It’s still a bad virus, multiples of a bad flu season, but it’s certainly not the 60% death rate that it appeared to be on January 27th. I am still thinking that once full testing of populations is carried out that it’ll have less than a 0.2% fatality rate.


#1079

The Diamond Princess numbers appear quite positive…however there would appear to be a contradiction contained therein when compared with the Italian experience.

He states that 83% of passengers of all ages did not contract the virus, meaning that it may not be as contagious as has been suggested elsewhere.

However, if this is in fact the case, then that would raise serious issues around the danger of the virus when contracted as per the Italian experience ie if we accept that Italian fatalities are quite high in basic numerical terms, one would have hoped that means that many people have it and are simply undetected as of yet (ie the overall rate remains low), in turn implying that its not that serious for most.

However, low contagion (as per the Diamond Princess set) and high fatality rates (the Italian set) would imply that its quite deadly when contracted.

So something doesnt add up…different strains, climate, race, smoking levels, social etiquette? Cos the italian experience certainly seems to be an outlier when contrasted with East Asian countries who appear to mainly have a handle on it. (I dont think china and Irans figures can be factored in to any realistic data set)


#1080

You raise a good point Poacher. The virus could well have been travelling around Northern Italy since early January though. Veneto is by far the most popular tourist region for Chinese tourists. It could still have infected 200,000 people in that region, with most just experiencing mild symptoms and they have not been tested yet. Maybe another few hundred thousand people that could have potentially gotten infected did not. It only took a few individuals infected in Wuhan at the start of December to cause a complete lock down of 45 million people in the surrounding province by about January 20th, who realistically knows how many were infected. I’ve another few ideas on how to balance out the contradictions but it’s late and I need to jump off. Worth thinking more about.


#1081

I haven’t analysed it but could the discrepency be linked to the relative lack of (asymptomatic?) children and younger people? Italy like Spain is very child oriented and has a lot of multi-generational living. Both very different to a cruise ship.


#1082

I think a lot of deaths will be on Macron “lets go to the theater”, Boris “ehh its just the flu” and other EU leaders which wanted to sustain the imaginary growth despite all risks and knowing how serious was it after regime in China panic in January.

It was fecken obvious it was serious. Sadly you and me will have to pay the price for it in upcoming depression or worse infection.

We’ve had above 17C today and tomorrow again a very nice weather for a walk… so I am not sure about how effective will be the quarantine in my country.

What do you think about switching car industry to make respirators in UK. I can’t imagine that happens quick due to safety requirements.


#1083

I don’t think you can believe much out of China. The constant 2% death rate, the Wet market origin, the numbers in neighbouring provinces are all lies.

Putin knows all about biological weapons, so following his lead would have been the smart move. I’m not saying I believe this was weapon. But we are being lied to.


#1084

Total: 292

He said there will be delays getting people tested and that it is difficult to carry out the test in the time that patients would like.

-Dr Colm Henry, clinical lead of the HSE

#1085

75% of the cases the last 3 weeks have been from the east. Any chance these asses can let people know where or even which county/ county council area.


#1086

Chinese ambassador offers medical supplies to Poland. From quick google search seems like its very common thing they do at the moment in many places.
I bet its not for free as previously read, but it is very interesting how they want to be the “good guy” now.


#1087

These are a great idea.

There’s also a 15 minute test in development. (There’s a few companies working on these…)