Coronavirus 2020


Is he some sort of snowflake who can’t take criticism. No one here criticized him for closing the borders
if fact I said he was right at the time. Allowing the UK to still fly was boneheaded as Boris was taking no steps to control the spread.
Credit where credit is due


I think they are just stories or anecdotes - no scientific or factual basis, and that virus is much more widespread than anyone knows.


UK throwing the rule books out the window.
The government is to pay the wages of employees unable to work due to the coronavrius pandemic in a radical move aimed at protecting people’s jobs.
It will pay 80% of wages for employees unable to work due to the coronavirus pandemic, worth up to £2,500 a month.
The “unprecedented” measures would stop workers being laid off due to the crisis, chancellor Rishi Sunak said.
Firms have warned the virus could see them collapse, wiping out thousands of jobs, as life in the UK is put on hold.

Brave move to stop the economy from collapsing.


Italian numbers on bit dirty plots from italian data set. Its way over Wuhan official death rate:

They are actually testing a lot with above 35% positive:

ICU numbers are really scary, this means serious or critical case:

I think Madrid will be way worse than Lombardia, high density, high spread and they were very ignorant for way too long:

I saw previously analysis which claimed that each dead person means there is up to 1000 infected from same source based on exponential growth and time it takes a person to lose the fight with infection.

From Korean data there seems to be strong spread among 20-30s. Ive read somewhere that it is asymptomatic or with very mild conditions for 60% of them

Great job from their side, a lot of tracking and isolation. On the other side I’ve spoke with Taiwanese engineer this morning and he was surprised that Poland is on such restrictions. He said that their office is now work from home, but its not so common. I’ve looked up tomtom data and Taipei seems very active.

and my favorite megalopolis i did not know about 2 years ago:

They seem to be back to work big time this week.

btw… They’ve upgraded lockdown status in Poland. For violation of self quarantine order - 30k PLN fine, which is now approx 6.6k€ as currency is loosing a bit in recent days… Additionally it allows govt a lot of things, e.g. to take properties or vehicles if required, create zones “zero” and “buffer” which means total lockdown and control of people in or near the virus infection clusters.
I wonder if I am going to be called to army at some stage. Still not everybody acts properly, I think we will waste chance to slow down things and mass deaths are inevitable. Virus is just there, just untested same like elsewhere in EU.
I was interviewing a guy from Ryanair software team today, he said everyone had hours shed by 50% and most likely there will be mass layoffs very soon.


It was a beautiful spring day today in Dublin with a spectacular sunset and there have been lots of anecdotal stories on twitter about piles of teenagers congregating at beaches and being teenagers, which is not good. I went to a shopping centre on the Northside but didn’t see any groups of teens thankfully. However all the fastfood and coffee shops were open with people (not many) sitting there not observing social distancing, mad! Went into a toy shop later, about 5pm to buy my youngest a bike (we’ve a big park nearby) and it appeared every parent on the Northside was there buying stuff to keep kids occupied. Talking to one of the senior staff there and she said it’s been like Xmas there this week, trampolines particularly are flying out of the place.

Before anyone gives out, I’d to get my car fixed and had to hang around somewhere as I didn’t want to get on a bus home for virus reasons. I kept my distance when I could.

Another anecdote. I was passing by a local welfare office on Monday and there were cars everywhere and people in and out. I’ve passed by there many mondays and never seen it that busy. My cousin had been laid off over the weekend and was in there and said it was busy. The staff were all lovely but looked like they didn’t know what had hit them. She also said there was no social distancing and a good number of ones with dry coughs waiting around. She did say the COVID19 form was just accepted and she got paid Jobseekers this week no problem, which is amazing considering there was a Bank holiday on Tuesday.


Priest? Caterer?

Its 80% of the NMW - the UKs national minimum wage.
So not peoples normal wages.
There is no obligation on employers to make up the 20% to NMW either.

So, if youre on minimum wage, you could remain employed and working with the govt giving you 80% of your wage and your employer contributing nothing… Classy Tory move right there.

If the UK keeps printing money (making promises/issuing press releases) at this rate, it’ll solve teh toilet paper crisis because it’ll be cheaper to wipe your arse with £10 notes…

Over here in Manchester, at 8pm local Asda was low on meat, pasta, tinned goods but still loads of fresh food.

Dont forget - all the restaurant and cafe closures will push a huge amount of daily/weekly supply into the retail chains. There will be a glut of produce in a week or so.



The cap on the payments is £2.500 a month, a lot more than minimum wage of £8.72 an hour
The government will pay the wages of employees unable to work due to the coronavirus pandemic, in a radical move aimed at protecting people’s jobs.
It will pay 80% of salary for staff who are kept on by their employer, covering wages of up to £2,500 a month.


Plenty of underreporting of cases in asia.

Thailand and others are starting to report an upsurge in cases.

Singapore reported 40 new coronavirus cases, mainly imported infections from the United Kingdom.


Yogan, not sure the point you’re making there. Is it that lots of younger people are being hospitalised also?
They aren’t dying from it though. Just a very small percentage. The over 65’s and over 85’s seem to have similar numbers to other regions on the deaths.
Until they start mass testing in the US I don’t think we can trust any data from there as wealthy people seem to be able to get tested just fine there from what I can see and that could skew results.

Just to give a view from my Eastern Asian location today. I was a little shocked to be honest. I was outside in 27C heat roughly speaking, and went down to the shopping area which is 99% back to normal. Department stores, restaurants, nail filing shops (or whatever they are called), Bars open, although it was early in the day and nobody was in the bars. I’d say footfall was about 40-50% of a regular Saturday, which is still pretty damn substantial to be honest. The only indication that there was a virus in the last few weeks was that at least 99.9% of people were wearing masks.


Tracking COVID19 in Australia:


More on that Imperial College study.


Incredible story behind uk dittering

Much of the responsibility lies at the feet of johnson, Vallance and Cummings. Libertarian nonense, herd immunity bs. Result - there will be many more deaths as a result.


Expect the same in Australia.



Anybody see Dr Fauci facepalm behind Trump at yesterday’s press conference when Trump was ranting on about the deep state.
It’s what happen’s when you have 40 IQ points over your boss.


Nice comment below the FT article “Project Fear has a good track record of predicting the future.”


Worth reading to understand what long term measures would be needed and how to arrive at where China is now.


German tracker:

There is a very interesting data from the same source, age distribution:

A lot of testing results in minor cases being reported. Italy infection numbers must be underreported by factor of 3. I saw in data sets that they’ve tested above 40k in Lombardy with 30+ percent being positive.

links to detailed trackers for NL, FR, DE…


They (younger people) aren’t dying because they are getting hospital treatment. Ventilation appears to be necessary in severe cases? (That’s a question). If you overwhelm the available medical capacity, the death rate climbs steeply and then medics have to make choices about who gets treatment and who dies (i.e. Italy). Contrary to my earlier supposition, in Italy it appears they have for some time been deciding not to treat based on age, because they don’t have the available capacity.

There’re still some weird uncertainties - is the german death rate low because they are only counting cases where coronavirus is the only cause of death? Is that unhelpful?

Yeah, I agree that the numbers in the US are mad. My office in Dallas closed after a case; likely there is a cluster, but nobody else is being tested (this is an office of 2000ish people). Likewise another office in the US closed to all but essential after a case (about 1000 people maybe). Again, no follow up testing, no contact tracing.
The comorbidities that are most affected are mad for the US - most of my colleagues are overweight, some substantially so. Many are on statins. Almost everyone has some class of allergy/asthma and given their ages (50 plus), lots of cancer survivors. Weirdly they seem unconcerned… but they are in Trumpland and I’ve had one person email me, a known socialist :0) telling me it’s a liberal hoax propagated by lazy people…