Coronavirus 2020


#1188

Seems like Belarus setting itself up as the global guinea pig ie Lukashenko deciding to take no measures whatsoever, claims its no more than hysteria. Will be interesting to see how that works out.


#1189

I think we really need to take this to another thread. Even the article states that:

In its fight against a countrywide epidemic, the government in Taipei has implemented 124 safety protocols, a testament to its quick, vast, and well-considered policy measures.

“The policies and actions go beyond border control,” Jason Wang, a Stanford University pediatrics professor and policy-analysis expert, told Stanford Health Policy earlier this month, “because they recognized that that wasn’t enough.”

If we didn’t have “open” borders, there would instead still be business and tourist visas. People would still have been coming and going in large numbers. assuming the same size and mix of industries in our economy.
The Asian countries can teach us a larger lesson that what you may be implying.


#1190

Yeah that’s called Globalism Einstein. That’s what we refused to change. To be good European boys and keep our tourists happy. Fuck that Bildeberg twat Coveney


#1191

Does anyone have any explanation for the relatively low death rate here?

Notwithstanding the time-lag and other factors, we appear, on the face of it to be doing better than other countries at this point. (12 deaths in Wales with a much lower population.)

Or are there many more deaths here that have yet to be recorded or included in the stats?

Latest stats here:


#1192

But the numbers are still too small to be able to confirm any definite patterns.


#1193

twitter saying there is a backlog of 40K tests. Not much point setting up loadsa testing centres if you don’t have the througput.


#1194

Prayer and maybe slightly better social distancing. It can’t be our health service.

All that matters is the number of deaths. Infections will always be understated.


#1195

I’ll take a stab at that HiFi. The true mortality rate of the virus is actually way lower than that which is currently being stated and Ireland is doing a decent job at testing compared to many countries which do nothing until medical services are overwhelmed. We are still drastically under-testing but not remotely as bad as the majority of countries. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of people in the vulnerable demographic had started self isolating early also which will bring the death rate down.

Another thing, I have a friend in her 30s who got tested really quickly even though she had no symptoms and didn’t feel remotely sick. She got tested just because she had been travelling abroad recently and was worried. I have another friend who’s father is in his mid 70s (roughly). He has the flu, along with his wife and my friend his son, and that father cannot get tested for 2 weeks. Which seems bizarre. They had been at small event about 1.5 or 2 weeks ago before developing symptoms. Based on those two anecdotes it seems to me that we are probably testing a lot of young people that were travelling recently so we are capturing a cohort that most countries don’t test for.

Hopefully this won’t be the case, but if we are not testing older people who have the flu along with many of the virus symptoms, then in a couple of weeks we could see more dead. These are just two anecdotes I have heard, I’m not back in Ireland so I don’t know everything that’s going on there regarding testing. One of Imperial College London’s papers estimated that the true mortality rate would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.6% and they were leaning more toward the lower value.


#1196

Isn’t it too early for social distancing to have any affect? (I was in a busy pub 9 days ago and also traveled to work that week on packed buses (ten journeys.) Heard DARTS were full, with the LUAS slightly less packed.

Denmark has 13 deaths so far. If we’re to follow the patterns of most other countries. I’d expect the deaths to start mounting up by a dozen or more per week.

Edit: ECD - just saw your post appear now - will read.


#1197

https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

In the short term at least, mass testing feeds through into a lower fatality rate because it allows authorities to detect cases of Covid-19 even in patients who suffer few or no symptoms, and who have a much better chance of survival. It also means that Germany is likely to have a lower number of undetected cases than countries where testing is less prevalent. Indeed, one notable feature of the coronavirus outbreak in Germany so far is the high number of relatively young patients: according to data from the Robert Koch Institute, more than 80 per cent of all people infected with the coronavirus are younger than 60.

“Especially at the beginning of the outbreak in Germany we saw many cases connected to people returning from skiing trips and similar holidays,” said Matthias Stoll, a professor of medicine at the University of Hanover. “These are predominantly people who are younger than 80 and who are fit enough to ski or engage in similar activities. Their risk of dying is comparatively low.” Hans-Georg Kräusslich, a professor of medicine and the head of virology at the University Hospital in Heidelberg, said: “In most cases the illness is mild and shows few symptoms, and we assume that the detection of such mild cases varies from country to country. In statistical terms that leads to a difference in case fatality rates.


#1198

I think the amount in hospital is the number to look at as well. Looking at @jmc China field manual anyone with oxygen saturation of 92% ought to be at least in hospital.

The worst seem to die X days after hospitalization. It is inevitable that some of our current hospitalized will die.


#1199

…and 40% infection rate in a population 4.8M and a mortality rate of .3% is…

around 6,000 dead…

40/50% of them in the first wave. And that is the absolute best case scenario.

Seems the math of small percentages of very large numbers is not a strong point with too many people.

A more reasonable (low) estimate of excess mortality is going to be around 15k/18k.

Other interesting math from the models. All scenarios show surge capacity of a countries medical system being overwhelmed by a factor of 5X to 25X in the first wave. Locking down the country 5X. Business as usual, as high as 25X. All curve flattening does is prolong the period of medical system swamping and defacto collapse. Thereby increasing the number of non COVID-19 people who die due to non treatment because of a non functioning medical system.

Almost all build out of medical capacity desperately being done in western countries is for triage not treatment. Just like in Wuhan. Once the first big surge hits the ICU beds will be kept for serious cases with a good chance of recovery, not the severe cases which dont. Just like Lombardy for the last few weeks. They are keeping very quiet in Ireland but formal triage protocols have been set in place in other countries for not if but when it is needed. In the next few weeks.

So a large number of people who are being kept alive by modern medicine and would have succumbed long ago 50 or 60 years ago are going to be the ones who are least likely to survive the next 18 to 24 months as each wave of infection rolls over the population every 5 or 6 months. Maybe as high as one third of this high risk group. They are the people who overwhelming end up as severe cases when infected. The first wave looks like it will peak around here in late April / early May. Then the next wave starts ramping up in September, the next wave after that in February next year, then the next wave… and so on until an equilibrium level is reached. At around 60% of the population.

The lockdowns will prove to be economically catastrophic with little material effect on the final mortality rate of the most high risk group over the next two to three years. It might have a material effect on the survival rate of the moderate risk group, maybe, but at the price of an economic depression and the destruction of any meaningful economic recovery by most European countries in the near future.

The last and most destructive gasp of the precautionary principal in public policy. Interesting story in todays Aftenposten about how the Norwegian government made its decision. Panic driven by the precautionary principal.

Another interesting data point, the expat Chinese media sources are reporting that there are several million missing cell phone subscribers in the last few months. Given how utterly ubiquitous cell phones are for day to day financial translations in China this is very interesting. Because a 10% first wave initial infection rate by 1.2 billion by 1% mortality rate (a more realistic one for China), is 1.2 million people. A 20% infection rate gives you around 2.5 million fatalities. Which is in or about the number of missing cell phone subscribers. Even if 50% or even 70% of dropped subscribers was purely economic what you have is still a very large six digit number of fatalities.

Remember those videos of the crests of the tsunami waves, one after another, higher and higher, hitting the coast of Japan after the Tohoku earthquake in 2011, that looks like it is going to be the next 18 /24 months of COVID-19 in Western Europe as its total infection rate climbs inexorable to an equilibrium point in the general population,


#1200

How does the better outcome for St Louis over Philadelphia in 1918 fit in to this type of thinking. Given that St Louis took severe action and fared better for mortality.

I do often wonder if, having made up your mind around 1968, most of your energy is spent trying to prove that Ireland, and possibly the entire world, would be better off ruled by Westminster.

But this is the dumbest crop of Westminster politicians in a (very long) lifetime


#1201

Not sure exactly what you are talking about. HiFi asked a question about why Ireland’s death rate is low compared to countries like Italy which is at 8.4%. I pointed to how Ireland is well within the values that Imperial College London has come up with on that paper.
Maybe I should have answered HiFi in a more panicked manner in order to appear better at maths.


#1202

Bah, humbug. Most of the cases were imported by Irish people travelling. And anyway, Nirn and UK (no longer in EU) are following a “no quarantine, no testing, no tracing” model. The schools were open two weeks longer than here. They’ve only just closed the pubs. Do you want to close the land border with Nirn? Close off the sea routes? Pretty tough to act as an island when a fifth of it is pretending the virus isn’t serious.


#1203

I agree with you; this is the dumbest Westminster since probably the pre-WWI era. They seem unredeemably broken!


#1204

Interesting quote about UK establishment mindset from today’s Daniel Hannan column in the Sunday Telegraph. They really do believe in the Blitz spirit guff even though Britain is radically changed from even 1988 in terms of social cohesion.

Advise British people to avoid mass gatherings and they will do their bit. Forbid such gatherings by law and all their bloody-mindedness will come out. For as long as I have known him, Boris has loathed bans and restrictions. He once joked that his hero was the mayor from Jaws who had faced down the health and safety fanatics and had kept the beaches open - a bad call in practice, he conceded, but the right thing in principle

God help Britain. I knew he had a problem with self control from all the women he rides. But it’s actually a philosophical as well as erectile matter for him.


#1205

UK today…

First confirmed case from Cheltenham

Testing booths in S. Korea


#1206

There is a radical economic theory, Modern Monetary Theory, which holds that governments with their own currency can spend without limit unless inflation intervenes. I think we are going to see a real live test of this theory shortly


#1207

Dont hang your hat on St. Louis.

I think it’s a great example of what can be done. But it’s also open borders in the long term.

Pandemics happen. They need to be managed on a large scale.

Unless we should go back to living in crannogs.