Coronavirus 2020


So…one more death and a slight increase in new cases. Way too early to detect any trend of course but the last three day’s figures are way down on the peak from March 19.

Presumably, this is due to the testing figures more than anything else?


McDonalds to temporarily close all its Irish & UK restaurants from tomorrow, not sure if it’s the closures or the unavailability of the food that will improve the health of the nation.


40K tests are still pending, so you know, early doors as they say next door.


No doubt there will be many theories floated about this…

Japan was one of the first countries outside of China hit by the coronavirus and now it’s one of the least-affected among developed nations. That’s puzzling health experts.

Unlike China’s draconian isolation measures, the mass quarantine in much of Europe and big U.S. cities ordering people to shelter in place, Japan has imposed no lockdown. While there have been disruptions caused by school closures, life continues as normal for much of the population. Tokyo rush-hour trains are still packed and restaurants remain open.


The olypmics probably have a lot to do with it. The other explanation is that they got lucky in round 1. This is a 12 round fight at best.


Maybe they’re not testing, no tests, no positives.


Where you see high death rates the only reasonable argument is Severe underreporting. Very low death figures for Denmark and Norway where there is a reasonable amount of testing. Same with south korea. Of course the % death rate increases when the health system is overwhelmed.


Good recap if you’re starting to miss the woods from the trees


41,026 US

33,089 Spain

27,558 Germany

16,937 France

5,911 United Kingdom

The UK figures are a load of nonsense as they have abandoned community testing and contact tracing. The US figures have overshot as they are only catching up with testing.

Due to the variability in testing and reporting it is only the death figures people should be watching. High death rates mean a general lack of testing in Algeria, Indonesia. Under reporting to lesser extend in France, Netherlands and UK.


And even after two poor unfortunates died today, the number of deaths here at 6 is relatively constrained so far. Compared to say 335 in the UK with 12 times our population, or Denmark 24 with a similar population, or Austria 21 with just under double our population.


Agree that the figures don’t mean much, unless we’re comparing like with like - i.e similar numbers tested per thousand, controlling for age, demographics, underlying conditions etc.

But I still don’t get why our numbers are relatively very low…

(There’ve been 18 road fatalities here so far in March alone - many entirely random.)

Could it be our relatively low population density and very low level of apartment living households? Perhaps in time, that scourge of planners - the semi-d with front and back garden - will prove to be our saviour!


Britain is gonna need to build prisons as well as hospitals


It would appear that Ireland will follow suit, talk on the 9 o’clock news of ‘an all Ireland’ approach. An announcement expected tomorrow, doubt if anyone will stick their neck out, even though the CMO has suggested that a lockdown in Ireland is not warranted.


Considering all the criticism that people here have heaped on the UK government’s handling over the past couple of weeks, it would be difficult not to introduce similar measures.

But in reality the measures are more a final warning to heed the social distancing rules before a full lockdown is imposed.


No this is the full lockdown.


As I’ve related before - here is the situation in Manchester tonight.

At about 8pm, shops about 1/3 busy. No queues. Pasta still missing in Aldi and Asda but mostly all other groceries available in either one or the other.

Notably, toilet paper, beans, tinned goods - kidney beans/chick peas etc all back in stock. Dishwasher tabs/soap/toothpaste all available in all stores.

Whats happening?
Well, the retail hotels/restaurans/offices have cancelled orders and this stock is now flooding the retail market.
And it will continue to flood for another 2-3 weeks.
After that, le deluge.

So if your gonna get smart and panic - the next 2 weeks is the time to do it.
But plan your supplies - dont be the fuckwit who buys 2 months of tinned beans.

Plan for 2 meals a day of 1/5 protein, 3/5 carbs and 1/5 nutrients/veg.
Diet meals and vitamin supplements are good purchases - they’ll provide you with all you need but you will still feel hungry. You WILL be losing weight.

Because the right-on mob dont like science, they are discrediting the ‘Herd Immunity’ thesis.
Unfortunately this thesis is correct (its just numbers people, not a personal opinion) and our current lockdown strategy means the Monster is gonna hit later in the year on a second wave.
You need to prepare now for that.

FFS people, its March! Get out n’ learn to grow some veg in a plastic bottle while youre off work…


It will be interesting because some people just cannot follow directions. They bring their dog for a walk in an ex Hurricane, they won’t park between the lines, they don’t insure their car etc.

We may actually have to use corporal punishment. Only physical reinforcement works on such people.


I’d love to be a fly on the wall at Blackstone or Goldman Sachs right now. Are the worried or delighted. What’s the opportunities. Will they be buying Virgin Airlines for a fiver etc


I believe a major reason our numbers are low is because we have started tracking the virus early. We are still very likely missing thousands of infected people but we are just seeing a roughly 0.5% death rate so far but more interestingly, just a 2.6% serious/critical rate so far.

In Germany where it first affected mostly working age people and tourists returning from Italy, they are seeing a 0.4% death rate and 0.8% serious/critical. I trust that the Germans are being quite efficient at testing people.
Some other countries seeing low serious/critical rates and death rates are Austria, Switzerland and Norway which are also, most likely, testing many people early before medical systems are overwhelmed.
Italy’s medical system is completely overwhelmed so any death rate or serious/critical rate numbers we receive are not useful.

South Korea was another interesting one to track as they were doing mass testing early so their numbers were much more reliable. They are seeing just 0.65% serious/critical rate. Even the South Koreans appear to have missed numerous people that were infected and clusters have sprouted up again and their death rate of confirmed infected people has shot up also in the last few days. Increasing by almost 9% so far today alone, with more figures to come out later today. They are at 1.3% death rate currently.

I think the serious/critical rates in these countries are a much clearer indication of the true harmfulness of the virus as some of these countries have many thousands of confirmed infected and very small percentages of serious/critical patients. I believe the virus is far more widespread in the world than we can currently confirm. Anywhere between 10 and 50 times the current confirmed numbers. This makes the death rate and serious/critical rates look way better.

Having said all of the above, it’s still a very dangerous virus and the numbers of deaths and of people in a critical condition is still very high. I, and many others here, have been tracking this since mid January and some of us are closer to the original epicentre than others, being in the Eastern hemisphere. There was a stage when the death rate was looking as if it could turn out to be 60%, at a similar time when the infectiousness of the virus was looking insanely high. Nothing drastically has changed on the infectiousness of the virus but the death rate has dropped precipitously and that’s very reassuring to many that were monitoring from early on. It continues to drop for countries that are implementing early testing. Although it’s terrible that many people will die, it’s also very good that far far less will die than at first thought.


Hubei is being reopened today, lets see what the herd immunity is really like and how long it lasts, that’s if the Chinese admit to anything second time around. Also agree - the genie isn’t out of the bottle here yet and a second wave is looking more likely, which will really truly f**k the economy - was Boris right in the end?