Coronavirus 2020


From 2018


Guess they havent heard of the south korean church or alpine apres ski joints spread it like typhoid Mary. Once we can seal the borders its on them.

Denmark should shut the bridge if it hasn’t already


Yeah they resist a lot those guys

I think Sweden just couldn’t lock down so it’s better off not to try



Yes, Median is better than Mean as it strips out any outliers. So half who died were over 79, half under.

You might have had 5 over 100 years old there and 5 in 20s but the mid way came to 79


Isn’t it fair then to assume then that the majority of the half who were over 79 - weren’t much over 79? And that the majority of the half under 79 weren’t much under 79?


no, don’t think so. My understanding is if five people died and their ages were 9,19,79,80,81 then the median is 79.


British expert who initially estimated about 2.2M deaths, then revised it down to 500K deaths, now says deaths in the UK are unlikely to exceed 20K.
Apparently a report from Oxford University says that as many as 50% of the UK may already have gotten it, which I also think is a shambles.
20% of an elderly population on the Diamond Princess got it and just over 1% of those died. If I remember correctly from watching a cruise ship episode of Columbo as a kid, they always get one or two deaths on these 2 week cruises (from natural causes) and it’s been nearly 2 months since the people first got on that cruise.
UK are going to give out 3.5M test kits to people in the next week and we’ll find out the true spread of the virus.
I doubt it will be 50% of the population but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was from 0.5% - 2%.


Yes, but leaving the pure mathematics aside - and given what we know - isn’t it much more likely that the majority of deaths - by a large margin -would be in the higher age bracket?

But when it comes to admissions to intensive care units and fatalities, a far higher proportion were in the oldest age categories (about 80% of fatalities were among the over-65s).


I may need to revise my estimates upwards somewhat now that Boris Johnson has the coronavirus though.


Rand Paul tested positive a few days ago.


It has clearly been incredibly widespread for over a month with so many celebrities, sports people and politicians getting it. Also, the low death rate and serious/critical rates from controlled environments and countries conducting early testing suggest that countries showing a high death rate actually have infections, orders of magnitude higher than they have currently confirmed.


But 90% of Irish test cases were negative, go figure!


Well all that this goes to show is that Ferguson or those people at Oxford University releasing reports are not experts on this virus but are very quick to go to print with the first half-baked estimate that comes into their head. They would be better off keeping their mouths shut.


Truly a golden age for political leadership around the world:


80% of Diamond Princess test cases were negative even after been in a very risky environment for weeks.
Ireland also started testing much earlier along the curve than the UK did I believe. That one person came back from Singapore on a flight on January 23 as far as I remember, and he infected everyone around him when he went to France after that. It’s likely that he and many other people before him were infecting people in the UK. None of those people in that group had any major bad effects from that also. That original guy didn’t even know he had it.

Also, it seems that there were many false negative tests from this virus in the early days as it mainly affects the lower chest area. Along with that, they seem to have been testing people who had no symptoms in Ireland, just because they had travelled abroad and had not been testing people who had many symptoms, because they hadn’t travelled abroad.

I don’t think we’ll know the true numbers until we get mass testing, which sounds as if it might happen quite soon in the UK.


Maybe that just means that the social distancing was successful. The severe cases would also have got good treatment as there were plenty of ICU beds. You seem to get the high death rates once the serious cases overtake the number of ICU beds.


What about in the UK? They have an extremely high death rate of 5%. However, they just have 1.4% in a serious/critical condition. That is meant to be about 20%.

The figures don’t add up. With Royalty, Politicians, Sport stars and many celebrities having it the 11,658 cases seems farcical. Also, even that farcical number seems to have a ridiculously low number of people in a serious/critical condition. Hubei had a 3.4% CFR and almost 20% in a serious/critical condition.

It’s quite likely that the UK has way over 100,000 people that have/had the virus. Possibly over 300,000 but still a very low number currently that are serious/critical. Granted a good few ICU patients have already died.


just when they supposed to vote for tax spending bonanza… knowing the views of both Ron and Rand… I think it was fake. He made it up to block the voting and show “its just the flu”.

diamond princess got a lot of attention plus, its not over really:

btw… serious/critical is not reported properly in Germany, Poland and probably in many others. Even on polish media its all good, then “patient had X other coexisting health issues”. They do everything to calm public.
Italian official number of deaths are obvious sign of peak capacity. Spain is catching up very fast. Probably due to march 8 event, “big escape from Madrid” few days later and ignoring the fact of pandemic for way too long :confused:

It is very interesting to see if Italian lockdown outside of initial explosion will slow down the spread enough to avoid massacre. As previously said, south of Italy is poor and far away from Lombardia state of art health service.

I wonder what was the real number of infections and deaths in China. I think its safe to multiply the numbers by x10 without hesitation comparing to NYC explosion in cases.


Varadkar has given the lockdown order for the next 2 weeks