Coronavirus 2020


Some USA predictions with plots on estimated ICU capacity required.

For me its super optimistic, see Florida. at peak 55 deaths/daily. Its impossible with their lifestyle and amount of big cities and retirement communities.

Apparently there is this tracker

Mortality monitoring in Europe
Welcome to the EuroMOMO website. We publish weekly bulletins of the all-cause mortality levels in up to 24 European countries or regions of countries. The weekly bulletin is published every Thursday around noon.

The plots are very low resolution, but I did not find more recent data. You can spot recent spike in Italy. Its still well below 2016/17 peak.

Increased all-cause mortality during the season
Data from the 17 countries or regions reporting to the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action project (EuroMOMO) suggested a pattern of excess all-cause mortality among those over 65 years in the first weeks of 2017. The level of excess all-cause mortality was similar to the 2014–2015 winter season, which was also characterised by the dominance of A(H3N2), with an estimated 217 000 excess deaths.

Data on hospitalisations in reporting countries
In the nine EU countries reporting hospital data, 7 400 hospitalised cases of influenza were reported to ECDC this season, half of these being reported from intensive care units.

7400 hospitalisations of which 50% from ICUs. Excess death across EU was in range of ~217k.


It really can’t be sustainable much beyond that…domestic violence and all kinds of other unintended and unexpected consequences will kick in…

Really feel sorry for some people I know sharing with friends (and strangers) in small spaces/apartments etc. Thank Christ I have a decent-sized house and garden…


The opening of the Late Late show was very strange. I watched with the sound down. It was a military parade. It was South American TV. A show of strength to scare the populace.

Miriam had appeared to promote it after the news saying they’d be talking to " 3 people on our frontlines". But then they started with an Argentina 1980 parade.


Now that the first batch of large data set clinical papers are starting to be published what is becoming obvious is that the only number that really matters is how many, and who, becomes critical. Due to huge differences in test regimes and death cause classification you really cannot do much comparative contrasting between counties. Especially China and Germany.

But looking at the hospitalization / critical symptoms ratio they look pretty constant in most countries from the papers published so far. And who becomes critical looks pretty consistent too. About 80/20 high risk people/ low risk people. The outlier cases mentioned in the media are just that, outliers. What also looks pretty constant is the critical survival rate. Low risk people mostly survive, high risk people mostly dont. The only difference for medical systems below or above surge capacity is that high risk people get triaged out when surge capacity overwhelmed so mortality rate goes from around 70% to 95% plus. And low risk peoples the morality rate also goes up, from 20% plus, but they mostly get triaged in. So not by so much.

What also comes out of the large data set papers is the two highest risk groups likely to end up critical and needing ICU’s are people with a subset of serious prior medical conditions. Coronary, immunologically compromised, and diabetes / morbid obesity. Those with the highest risk are 70 plus with an impaired life expectancy of 3 to 5 years. The next highest risk group are 60 plus with an impaired life expectancy of 8 to 10 years. Other serious medical conditions have elevated risk but much much lower than the coronary/ immunologically compromised etc high risk group.

When one starts looks at the full course of the epidemic over 180/360/720 days from initiation and the fact that SARs CoV 2 will reach an equilibrium infection rate of 60% to 80% by the end of the epidemic in the populations in all counties bar Taiwan, Singapore and maybe HK, South Korea, any and all lockdowns will have little impact on the final distribution of who will die. Those in the highest risks group will die at pretty much the same rate as a no action policy over the course of the epidemic. If the first wave does not get them the second wave, or third wave, etc will.

Given the already seriously impaired life expectancy of the high risk grouped like to die of COVID they would have a very high mortality rate even if a COVID epidemic was not ongoing. In next 720 days up to 40% of the highest risk group and 20% of the next highest risk group would probably die of their chronic illnesses anyway.

The whole test and contain strategy will not work with SARS CoV 2. It is not measles or smallpox. There will be no high efficacy / low risk vaccines. Without a high efficacy vaccine community spread containment and elimination is a non starter. The effectiveness of the SARs/MERs vaccines over the last two decades has been even worse than with influenza vaccines. So less than 50% success rate. And with much higher rates of serious side effects than influenza vacines.

But unlike influenza SARs CoV 2 is novel. Which means multiple vaccine shots to even have a hope of developing immunity. There will be no MMR type vaccine for this virus. Like with influenza vaccines any COVID vaccines would have much lower effectiveness rates with old people and people with serious health conditions. In fact immunio compromised people have very serious problems with most vaccines like these.

The seemingly inherent immunity to SARs CoV 2 of young people might provide a key to a short term effective vaccine. But I would not count on it. Plus it is unlikely t o be very effective for the people with highest risk of dying of COVID while the current epidemic runs its course.

The only thing the current lock down does is make the peak of the second wave of infection in September / October bigger and stronger. It defers but it will not change by much the final outcome. In 720 days plus. The only thing the current lockdowns does is cause immense economic damage and defer rather than eliminate most of the deaths of high risk people that will happen during the course of the epidemic.

In case you think I am being callous I am very aware of just what a horrible death COVID causes. The final phases produces pretty much the same physical effects on the lungs as with solders after a poison gas attack in The Great War. The patient usually drowns to death due to the fluid filled lungs and asphyxiates. If lucky they expire due to a heart attack, sepsis or multiple organ failure first. If not the only escape from terrible suffering in the final phase before death is a medically induced coma.

It is a particularly horrible way to die. And there is little any public policy, no matter how extreme, can do to change the final outcome by any serious degree in the long term. No matter how unpalatable or repugnant most people might find that conclusion. So the sooner panic driven politicians realized that basic fact then the less long term damage their panic will cause to the long term economic viability of the country. More low risk criticals can then be saved of the course of the epidemic and the high risk criticals who cannot be realistically saved can be allowed to die in dignity and humanely without the utterly hideous suffering too many of the current victims go through.

Thats what the new normal is starting to look like from now on and for the foreseeable future.


TL;DR - House prices are coming down.


If I have this right:

  • Trump announces travel ban from Europe in effect from, Fri 13th thru to Easter Sunday.
  • Boris has to isolate till Easter Sunday.
  • Trump heavily pushing idea in media in recent days he wants to reopen US Easter Sunday.
  • Ireland now goes into full lock down until Easter Sunday.

Any other Governments / People following the same shared time schedule?


Easter is an easy line in the sand to aim for, I doubt that is anything more than that, after all during “normal times” that would be a break anyway.


4th July?? More like Halloween


Do you reckon they’re minuting their meetings these days? Im doubtful

I think I’m alone in being unimpressed by Tony Hoolahan. I don’t like his evasions on how many ICU beds have been added to the system. I don’t mean private hospital ones I mean new ones. I don’t like the failure to be specific on clusters.

Harris and Co’s determination to keep the borders open looks ever more scandalous.


3,600+ cases in Australia and the prime Minister is more concerned that using the phrase ‘lockdown’ could cause unnecessary anxiety.


The two cases I know to be live were both Irish people returning from Cheltenham. And then there’s all the Italy ski trips. And other returning Irish.
You’d lock them out?


I don’t see the problem with locking people out of the country in most cases.


I’d quarantine all residents returning. I’d accept no non residents. It’s absolutely unacceptable to limit people to 2kms from their homes having trenchantly defended open borders. Simply put, Simon Harris is a disgrace.


This is what makes an utter mockery of the 2km rule which boils my onions too as a jogger.
Every busybody will be giving me the evil eye the second I step outside my front door to go out for a run, yet the airports remain open accepting people from 100s and 1000s of km’s away including known virus hotspots.
My local park will be packed to the rafters with people like me because of this restriction too. Normally I wouldn’t be near anyone on my solitary sojourn now I’m forced to swerve around dog walkers with those bloody extendable leads - always fully extended and children every few metres…i could go on…

/Old man shaking fist at cloud.


It’s Ben Gilroy and the Freeman movement I feel sorry for. The only thing I know about Admiralty Law is that it almost invented the idea of the quarantine. In fact this may be the Kryptonite to use against them regularly.


180 plot twist… yet again :confused:

I’ve just came back from first longer home leave in around 3 weeks in which I just did grocery shopping.
I went for my usual 20km cycle route and sadly I see many people outside enjoy the 16C spring sunshine in groups. Eh people are really… like the engineer at my wife work, came back from Germany no isolation or anything, straight to work, laughing from COVID… two weeks later - panic, wearing mask and sanitizing hands every few minutes.

Oh I see the worldometer changed number of critical for Germany now it looks more realistic and closer to S Korea numbers:

I’ve heard yesterday that in Madrid there is an unwritten policy to “calm” over 65years old patients with high risk to allow them to die peacefully. Its done to keep the staff and equipment for younger and/or better prospecting patients as hospitals are totally overrun. You probably saw people on oxygene laying on the floor in the hospitals on sky news youtube clips… really scary.

Btw… I don’t think that Italy is “slowing down” just yet, look at top provinces from 27th of March data. Hopefully I am wrong, but Milan is actually speeding up, Turin and whole Piemonte region as well. Its very dangerous as the Lombardy capital city hospitals are full of people from the satellite cities:

Obiously this is not full image as many people dies outside of official count as excess deaths. Moreover no body can handle mass scale testing with current tragedy.


“There is no fate but that which we make for ourselves”.

Varadkar used that phrase last night

Its a quote from the movie Terminator.


Mightyz, saw an article today that suggested that some Poles have returned to Polska which seems to have reacted quicker in the crisis than countries like the UK. Has this been common?
NY Times article about this


LOT our state owned airline brought around 38k people from around the world after stop of ordinary air flights.

Not sure if there is many people coming back at the moment, if you are resident in western EU country the social benefits to “stay at home” would be probably better if they can’t work from home. I think I’ve heard in the news at some stage about 120k returning, can’t find any data now.

To be honest, I am not sure if Poland is so behind Germany due to lack of testing or early school closure and quarantine really delayed/slowed things.

38674 tests done, 1436 positive, 47 new (4hours ago).
They’ve done 4.6k tests in last 24 hours so they’ve increased testing capacity:

Data from health ministry from 22h ago, as it goes:

  • number of hospitalized (lower than confirmed cases!)
  • number of people under quarantine (mainly home arrest checked daily by police/army, penalty up to 30k PLN for violations). 14 days for suspected cases which returned from abroad or awaiting test results. My niece is under such after her school trip from sevilla was brought back. I think everybody went into holiday apartments near the sea around 80 km from my home town.
  • number of people “listed for quarantine” after returning from abroad
  • ppl under safety organization SANEPID control: this is mandatory “try to stay home” order for all healthy people which were working not in direct contact but in same building as confirmed case. They are asked to self quarantine and observe temperature + other COVID symptoms and report as well I think.

Borders are mostly “closed”, you can come in if you are citizen, permanent resident or truck driver. There were special convoys for returning emigrants to baltic states as well so they could pass through.

Here in Wrocław we’ve had 81 cases in city and over 45 in direct proximity according to data from yesterday.
Tracker, but only with regional data… Which can be misleading as for example my region has 3mln people, but Wrocław metro area is around 1mln and here are most of the cases.

Comparing with our neighbours:

In general our health minister keeps repeating in the media “Prepare for the worse, but pray for the best… we have to learn from Italian experience”. He is a professor with specialisation in cardiology so he knows how bad it could be in hospitals better than ordinary folks.


The maths don’t s stack up here. How can 5%die and only 1.5% serious or critical. Makes zero sense