The summer flu, came blowin’ in from across the sea
It lingered there to touch your hair and walk with me
All summer long we sang a song and then we strolled that golden sand
Two metres apart and the summer flu
Like painted kites, those days and nights, they went flyin’ by
The world was a new-normal beneath a blue umbrella sky
Then softer than a piper man one day it called to you
I lost you, I lost you to the summer flu
The autumn flu and the winter flu, they have come and gone
And still the days, those lonely days, they go on and on
And guess who sighs his lullabies through nights that never end
My fickle friend, the summer flu
The summer flu
Warm summer flu
Mmm, the summer flu
Bit of a catch22 situation, how do you get heard immunity when you have a lockdown and how do you avoid overwhelming your health services without some form of a lockdown.
Do you use a “cellular” type of approach where you have severely restricted movement between towns/districts but allow freedom of movement within these “cells” thus restricting outbreaks to these small pockets.
This should allow heard immunity to build up one district at a time.
You can argue for or against our current strategy of 5 phases at 3 weeks apart, ending in August.
But we seem to have no proper strategy to avoid Wave 2.
I’ve not heard of any compulsory 14 day quarantine for arrivals into Ireland. Travellers currently can voluntarily say where they will be saying…
Could we not stamp everyone’s passport entering the State and at least that means no short term travellers i.e. if your passport was stamped 3 days ago you cannot leave for another 11 days
Logistically enforceable, politically in the EU? Legally?
All information out of China is suspect. Only half-way accurate info are clinical papers covering relatively small numbers. All other info is junk.
As the R0 is around 1.5 the first wave will peak and then roll off fast at 20%/25% population infection rate. Which is about where we are now. Or would be if not for the lock down. So add two months or so. Same end result.
The second wave will combine with normal flu season next winter. When the general population infection rate will add another 10% to 15%. Final SARs CoV 2 infection rate will be around 50% of the population in two to three years. The usual range for novel viruses with R0 of around 1.5.
The asymptomatic infection rate seems to be 70% plus, maybe over 80%, among under 60’s. About the same as seasonal flu. Over 60’s with low cross immunity will get hammered but the only people who are actually dying in much greater than usual mortality rates are sick people over 75.
Given the high infection rates in hospitals and old peoples homes by this time next year pretty much all the normal 2.5k old people who die of pneumonia in any given year will test positive for SAR2 so will be classified as “COVID” deaths. Whereas its unlikely that more than 10%/20% will have any clinical manifestation of a SAR2 infection let alone full blown ARDS
Thats about it. Close down countries because some old sick people are dying but pretty much no one else is.
Having read the published papers I have so little fear of the risks of SARs CoV 2 infections that I will have not the slightest worry about getting on a couple of planes and flying 15 hours or so in the near future.
I have not seen a single model yet that has not at least on key variable that does not agree with the published literature on how SARs CoV 2 has actually is transmitted through large well documented populations. The best models still underestimate asymptomatic rate as well as the asymptomatic infection ratio plus underestimate error factors and dependencies. Often not even +/- 30%. More like order of magnitudes.
And the HSE models who fucking knows. As far as I can find out no one outside the small modelling group actually knows how it works, what values they use, or even if anyone who constructed the model knows the inherent weakness in some of the assumptions made.
So cargo cult science.
Study: Facemasks crucial
Asian experience and advice was also ignored on face masks until months into the pandemic - a recent study by scientists in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom is only the latest to confirm that such coverings drastically reduce infection rates.
The new infections in China and South Korea also risk prompting a nihilistic response.
If countries that appear to be on top of the disease cannot contain it, what can a nation with thousands of daily cases hope to do? But this is arguably the wrong takeaway - these countries had the worst outbreaks in the world in February, but managed to get them under control.
That they are seeing new cases is a lesson about the risks of relaxing too soon, not a reason to give up the fight entirely.
9News: Renewed outbreaks in South Korea, Germany and China.
It has crossed my mind a few times that we are living in a Joesph Heller book.
Sweden is a long way from herd immunity given the ‘success’ of their social distancing measures.
Herd immunity ‘success’ is roughly 1-2% of your population in hospital with covid. Say 50k to 100k in ireland in hospital. (assuming you get immunity from having covid).
Yep - In Sweden their healthcare system is better able to cope with the rise in cases. It was never overwhelmed so all appears calm, and they’re getting their herd immunity in exactly the same way as the UK is - by people dying at twice the rate they are in Ireland (in Sweden 1 in 7 of their cases results in fatality, in the UK 1 in 8 and in Ireland 1 in 16). We may end up with the same proportion of people dying by the time we get out of this but we will have given ourselves some chance of a lower overall death rate should a solution arise in the intervening period.
It’s all about, timing.
Ours hasn’t come close to being swamped, that’s bugging me. A vaccine may never arise and we have to plan for that which means advancing herd immunity as fast as is practicable within the hospital capacity. If you don’t use your capacity you burn more of your economy down. I can understand the initial caution because a theraputic might come along in a shorter time but where is it?
Lots of people saying there is no proof of immunity, but the old saying was never truer - an absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. What if the immunity only lasts on average two years and our abundance of caution means we would need to live like this for three years, we’ll be back in the stone age without the capacity to pay for or manufacture lots of other proven vaccines and many other proven medical treatments or procedures. Your health is your wealth but equally your wealth is your health, cancer treatments especially the new ones are very expensive. Secondary morbidity hasn’t been a factor, but by the time you are counting them it’s too late. R0 for measles is 15 (fifteen).
There are vigilant men on this site who will accuse you of being a conspiracy theorist for that sort of opinion.
Ask yourself - ‘Were you there?’
‘Did you actually see the virus?’
D’ye not know that there were other viruses going about?’
‘Are you not confused’?
‘Are you sure you saw what you think you were seeing or were ye just thinking about what you thought you were seeing?’
Ye don’t want to be thinking like that, people’ll be thinking you didn’t see what you thought you saw.
… define high.
Explain what a factor is please. I’m unclear.
What season are we talking about now?
Have you not read the Chinese govt papers? They’re as solid an reliable as any other govt papers. Anywhere.
On anything. Falling towers,arab invasions or snottery chinamen; it’d be best if you just put your own cognition, apprehension, experience and memories away and just swallowed the shite.
Off to sleep with you now or the Pin Credulity Theorists will be crowding out the thread with unctous shite about how you’re stupid for thinking… ya feckin loon, ya.
What’ll the neighbours think?
I knew your father, didn’t I?
Oh look! A squirrel!
(Insert other Irish-isms here)
Do remember 2008? Does n’t everything look very familiar? The last few months?
Do you remember how before September, 2008 in Ireland it was all about how it was going to be a Soft Landing. Then after September 2008 it was all about how Lehman Brothers caused every last problem as the local banking system went bankrupt? But it was not a liquidity problem but a solvency problem. Unlike every other countries banking system post Lehman.
Both stories were a pack of lies. The usual lies that the Irish as a nation always tell themselves. Either, sure whats the problem? Or when the inevitable clusterfuck happens, its always someone else’s fault.
No one ever bothered to ask why Anglo suffered the first banking failure in more than one and fifty years in the British Isles due to a depositor run.
No one asked where that 30B Anglos money had originally come from. The 30B that disappeared that started the cover up that collapsed the rest of the banking system. A banking system that is still insolvent 12 years later.
Same with the current COVID Hysteria.
South Korea would have had accurate information as to infectious and mortality of SARs CoV 2 by March 10’th, 2020.
South Korea has one of the highest rated medical system and medical researcher in the world. They had just successful dealt with a serious multiple cluster outbreak, unlike Taiwan by that data.
So more than two weeks before lockdown started on the 27’th of March accurate and transparent was readily available as to the true nature of the current pandemic. H1N1/09 with an inverted cross immunity demographic curve. Thats about it.
No one in government or the Irish media has once stopped in the last two months to ask some very simple questions. The answers to which have been available for over two months now.
Whats theR0 of SARs CoV 2 ? Its 1.5. Not 4.
What is the mortality rate? 0.5%. Not 2%
Is there a strong demographic bias in serious infections rate? Yes. people under 60 just dont get very sick. Unlike every other respiratory viral pandemic of the last 140 years.
Do people in the high risk demographic have different risk factors from other viral pneumonia? Nope. Not the slightest. All the usual suspects.
Or how about this question…
Is there a strong body of scientific research support Social Distancing? None, whatsoever.
All the research, what littler there is, point towards casual area contact being completely unimportant in transmitting respiratory infections. Close contact in badly ventilated small spaces for extended periods of time will do it. And its just breating, not coughing or sneezing that account for the vast majority of any air-born viruses.
Start here for the story. Following the referenced papers is also pretty revealing too.
For reference 1^3M is one thousand liters. The average person exhales about 7 to 10 L per min. So about two hours to produce 1^3M of infected respiratory aerosol particles.
Stick a few actively SARs CoV 2 infected asymptomatic people in a DART carriage with all the seats filled. Open all the windows. And the DTI-50, probability of getting infected, is about the same as getting a rhinovirus infection. A cold. And for anyone under 60 the risk/symptoms would be about the same too.
Remember that when this time next year 1 in 5 of the population is still on government assistance and whole sectors have disappear for the foreseeable future. Assuming the ECB has not turned off the bond spigot first. Then the country is really really fucked.
Every single statement issued by the government regarding the SARs CoV 2 pandemic has little or no basis in the scientific literature or in mathematically correct methodology. None.
The statistics regarding COVID-19 deaths officially released are not consistent with actual standard medical statistical practices. SARs CoV 2 caused severe pneumonia. The majority of official COVID-19 deaths did not die of pneumonia.
And so on a so forth.
And the Irish media, especially RTE, is beyond contempt in their stoking of the hysteria. Shutdown RTE and its quite simply Soviet level of propaganda and the current hysteria would very soon evaporate. RTE really does remind me both in tone and tenor of Radio Moscow circa 1982.
Just like in 2008 everyone in the public sphere is completely and totally full of shit.
The Economic Impact of Covid 19
So if the mortality rate is 0.5% and 40k people in the UK have died from it, then that suggests 8 million people there caught the virus.
But if the R0 is 1.5, how did it spread so rapidly in a few months?
There is anecdotal evidence that a lot of people had a mystery bug at the end of last year and start of this year, including my missus. Could the virus have already been round the block with a huge base of asymptomatic carriers and then exploded into the more vulnerable groups?
6 posts were split to a new topic: Coronavirus Wave 1 - Did you have it and with what symptoms?
Who knows, there was definitely a severe on the go in the new year. However it still doesn’t square with the claim that a virus with lowish mortality and lowish transmission rate can do such a purge in such a timespan.
This has probably been posted elsewhere but a New Jersey mayor believes he had it in November and he tested positive for the antibodies. He may well have got it in January and been asymptomatic but it’s interesting that he had a very bad dose in November.
Some Hong Kong doctors were saying around January 23 that one patient in their hospital had infected 14 staff and it seemed that had happened in less than a day. That’s when I started realising it would explode around the world. It seems that it was in Wuhan since October. Given the amount of travel that goes on nowadays I could easily see it having been around the world in 4 - 6 weeks.
I haven’t been posting much lately as my East Asian location is mostly back to normal. I will say though, that whenever I go out I don’t have to wait many minutes before I see someone sneezing and I usually see a few people sneezing on my travels. Everywhere is open up here again and everyone wears masks outside (mostly). Nobody is really too bothered about the virus anymore. And at many gatherings people take off their masks. The virus may well not be so bad. It’s been this way for at least 5 weeks. Either the virus is eradicated (and the cold and flu are still spreading fine) or the virus isn’t as bad as thought. I still don’t see many older people out and about though but people under 60 are operating as normal. Restaurants and bars and cafe’s are very busy.