CSO: Another Drop, House Prices Now down 42.5% from Peak

Irish Times: CSO: Property prices fall 12.5 per cent

irishtimes.com/newspaper/bre … um=twitter

peak-to-trough lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=peak_to_trough

i dont see any troughs to date, just a nice long downward slope, i wonder if conal mc coille knows what a graph containg a trough looks like?
or just another contination of the soft language policy to try indicate that its over now, we are at the bottom.

probably too pendantic for some but a chief economist should not use such poor english (imo)


Based on your words “pendantic” and “contination”!

ouch! but I’m not a chief economist so am free to judge

NWL article on this:
namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/ … nt-prices/

Looking at NWL’s updated predictions list at the bottom of the article, I see that Standard and Poor’s in June 2010 predicted a 41% fall peak-to-trough, and in May 2011 revised that to, erm, 33%. Good times.

It’s also interesting that 60% falls peak-to-trough are pretty much a consensual position amongst the latest predictions. The days of that figure being conspiracy theory territory are long, long gone.

I ran a quick average of the peak-to-trough predictions from the list that were made in 2011. The mean prediction is 53.6%. Taking the CSO figure of 42.5% down from the peak, that’s another 10% from peak to go. For prices to fall a further 10% from peak, they need to fall almost 20% from today’s levels.

That seems about right to me. So I looked at the average prediction for the bottom-out date (again just using the forecasts since Jan 2011). Suggests 2012.

Could we see a further 20% fall by the end of 2012? I’d say close to it. Maybe another 12-15%.

Incidentally, averaging the predictions of different ‘experts’ is quite a good way of obtaining an accurate forecast.

Once again the media sees falling prices as BAD, rising prices as GOOD. As a potential buyer, it’s the opposite for me.


I love seeing an article like this one. The more often EAs and vendors get punched in the head with the facts, the more the facts will dawn on them. I think we’re finally beginning to see evidence of that, in some (but by no means all) of the asking prices coming to market as the new season draws closer. For a long time, every time I’ve met one of the EAs in my area, I chat with them about the latest item of news or depressing economic statistic. It has been hard work getting through but I have finally broken the spirits of a few of them. Now they are much more willing to downplay the expectations of vendors and to recommend offers that are low relative to asking price.

Out time is coming…

You forgot “english” :slight_smile:

i think its all a bit of a paper exercise, as there is not a huge volume of houses being sold, banks not lending money and have none to loan