CSO issue new dwelling completion figures for Q1 2018 - 3,526
cso.ie/en/statistics/constructi … mpletions/
For comparison the data set was back-captured to 2011
14.4k new dwelling built in 2017 - up 47% on 2016 and a massive 215% on 2014.
However 4,575 new dwellings in 2014 is a tiny number when compared to a national stock of 2m properties 
The CSO is credible in my eyes. I certainly see no reason to disbelieve the figures, although it will be interesting to see if anyone has legitimate criticisms over the next day or two.
Still far more homes need to be built every year of course. Apartments is the big lacuna at the moment. 2k built last year. Needs to be at a minimum 10k per annum to meet demand. Probably closer to 20k over the next decade realistically if the economy keeps growing well.
Comparing sales of new houses in the PPR with the figures there is a pretty good correlation, particularly if you allow for the time lag between completion and sale. The interesting thing is whether we see that 14.4k figure from 2017 come through this year. There were 1960 new homes sold in Q1 (and I think it’s fair to assume that all the figures are in for Q1) compared to 1594 in Q1 last year - that’s only a 20% increase compared to the increase of about 50% in the CSO figures. If you extrapolate to the year (assuming the same pattern of new sales) 9110/1594 * 1960 is 11201 or 23% more. It will be interesting to see how this goes.
Sales From PPR CSO Completions
2013 3639 4575
2014 5286 5618
2015 6098 7219
2016 6665 9915
2017 9110 14446
2018* 3442 N/A
2018** 1960 3526
Definitely a correlation but the growing buy to rent sector will skew the figures somewhat
New Dwelling Completions Q3 2018
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … onsq32018/
Hmm, image not coming in great but link above anyway
Just updating this table with the latest figures from PPR/CSO
Sales From PPR CSO Completions
2013 3639 4575
2014 5286 5618
2015 6098 7219
2016 6665 9915
2017 9110 14446
2018* 10194 N/A
2018** 7195 12582
Which suggests a lot of unsold houses although the figures suggest a speed up in sales in the last Quarter - not sure if that’s normal. Still waiting to see confirmation in the PPR of a rumour that I heard before Christmas that there were an awful lot of sales closed in Dublin in December (there are about 1500 so far and there were over 2000 last December) - although December figures seem to take longer to come through.
Can someone run up a graph of NCH cost estimations under Simon’s watch (maybe throw in DoH budget overruns as an extra curve) and Housing Completions under Murphy’s watch?
So 18K houses completed in 2018.
How many do we need a year to catch up on demand?
I dont know but the amount of sites starting this year is a large increase on previous years. we could a be near the annual demand by this year
In other words, it’s taken 8/9 years to do what was done in one of the peak years of the Boom-Bubble.
Updating this again. Assuming that the PPR figures are as complete as I think they are there’s seems to be a bigger disparity than previous years when we compare 2017s completions with 2018s new house sales. Perhaps this reflects straight to rent sales which might show as a single sale for multiple units in the PPR. There are certainly a few obvious ones (20 or 30 at a quick glance with between 3 and 36 properties) but that only comes up to about a 1000 at a generous estimate. So there might be a question about whether all these kinds of sales end up in the PPR. There almost certainly a few new properties that haven’t sold - I’ve seen a lot of new infill developments in Dublin that have been slow to sell - mainly because they are overpriced for their size and amenity. I’m not sure if that is more true for new rural property - it was certainly a feature of the tail-end of the last boom
New Dwelling Completions Q1 2019
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ndc/newdwellingcompletionsq12019/
| Summary of New Dwelling Completions by type of dwelling | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | Single | Scheme | Apartment | Total |
| 2011 | 4,814 | 1,358 | 822 | 6,994 |
| 2012 | 3,501 | 964 | 446 | 4,911 |
| 2013 | 2,947 | 1,155 | 473 | 4,575 |
| 2014 | 2,975 | 1,795 | 748 | 5,518 |
| 2015 | 3,252 | 3,294 | 673 | 7,219 |
| 2016 | 3,660 | 5,081 | 1,168 | 9,909 |
| 2017 | 4,261 | 7,913 | 2,225 | 14,399 |
| 2018 | 4,688 | 10,987 | 2,348 | 18,023 |
| Q1 2018 | 971 | 2,023 | 476 | 3,470 |
| Q2 2018 | 1,152 | 2,763 | 487 | 4,402 |
| Q3 2018 | 1,206 | 2,839 | 614 | 4,659 |
| Q4 2018 | 1,359 | 3,362 | 771 | 5,492 |
| Year | 4,688 | 10,987 | 2,348 | 18,023 |
| Q1 2018 | 1,098 | 2,564 | 613 | 4,275 |
| % change Q1 2018 to Q1 2019 | 13.1% | 26.7% | 28.8% | 23.2% |
| % change 2017 to 2018 | 10.0% | 38.8% | 5.5% | 25.2% |
Those numbers are striking. The number of completions has doubled in two years, quadrupled in five. Also from the report, three quarters of them are urban, and 60% in the Dublin + Mid-East region. Meanwhile the number of unfinished housing developments has fallen by three quarters in five years, and almost all those remaining are outside Dublin.
All in all, it seems plausible that – as Ronan Lyons suggested in the Daft housing report – the amount of new supply is starting to catch up to demand and Dublin is soaking up most of it.
New Dwelling Completions Q2 2019
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ndc/newdwellingcompletionsq22019/
| Summary of New Dwelling Completions by type of dwelling | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | Single | Scheme | Apartment | Total |
| 2011 | 4,814 | 1,358 | 822 | 6,994 |
| 2012 | 3,501 | 964 | 446 | 4,911 |
| 2013 | 2,947 | 1,155 | 473 | 4,575 |
| 2014 | 2,975 | 1,795 | 748 | 5,518 |
| 2015 | 3,252 | 3,294 | 673 | 7,219 |
| 2016 | 3,659 | 5,070 | 1,167 | 9,896 |
| 2017 | 4,258 | 7,891 | 2,224 | 14,373 |
| 2018 | 4,685 | 10,988 | 2,343 | 18,016 |
| Q1 2018 | 971 | 2,020 | 476 | 3,467 |
| Q2 2018 | 1,150 | 2,763 | 487 | 4,400 |
| Q3 2018 | 1,206 | 2,839 | 614 | 4,659 |
| Q4 2018 | 1,358 | 3,366 | 766 | 5,490 |
| Year | 4,685 | 10,988 | 2,343 | 18,016 |
| Q1 2019 | 1,091 | 2,567 | 607 | 4,265 |
| Q2 2019 | 1,328 | 2,834 | 758 | 4,920 |
| % change Q2 2018 to Q2 2019 | 15.5% | 2.6% | 55.6% | 11.8% |
| % change 2017 to 2018 | 10.0% | 39.2% | 5.4% | 25.3% |
At this rate, 2019 will see > 20K. dwellings constructed, approaching a sustainable level assuming current trends in household formation.
Adequate supply combined with no deal Brexit could pop Dublin’s house price bubble unless Gabriel Makhlouf loosens the mortgage rules in defiance of his ECB colleagues. Why else did the government give him the job?
A lot of new stock isn’t selling though, at least in Cork.
Builders priced in future increases when they bought the land, applied for planning and started building.
With prices seeing no change in prices 2019 v 2018 they were caught on the hop
