CSO - property prices down nationwide, up in Dublin

The Irish Times owns MyHome, not the Indo.

I’m not surprised by the fact that Dublin (asking) prices have stopped dropping, it appears that the trend of setting up home in commuter towns and working in the “city” has finally come to an end, mainly due to high fuel prices.

Decent housing in the city will drop to the point where banks believe they won’t end up with negative equity if the mortgagees default, that point must be close at this stage.

Remote rural housing may in some cases be unmortgageable.

A friend in the market for a PPR (requiring about 400k in mortgage) had 6-month mortgage approval from EBS (with whom she negotiated a previous PPR mortgage). This lapsed in April.

When she went to renew with EBS, she was told off-the-record that EBS are, to all intents and purposes, not in the mortgage market any more - hence their prohibitive rates.

She subsequently bought through Bank of Ireland. She had a massive deposit as well as funds to completely renovate the property. These appear to be the only conditions under which large mortgages are now approved.

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:angry:

I was just thinking could this be the reason…
My thinking Sunny weather,long evenings and all that feel good stuff that goes with summer…

Thank God for that!
My Ubber Contrarian Indicator…

It’s all to easy to distort the figures, there will be a low sample size, most houses I’ve seen in SCD are probate sales which need to fixed up. That should be reflected in the price so if something comes to market that is in turn key condition it will go for a bit more and hence push up prices a bit

When the mortgage rates go up again next month and next october surely we will see further declines.

There is no way in hell that prices have risen in Dublin.
If anything, the drop has gotten droppier !

I think there were a few sales of big houses lately in Dublin. They’ve been mentioned here.
It’s not a price rise, but a few extra sales in the +1 million market would be enough to give the illusion of a price rise.

ooops

I disagree. If that were the case we would be near the bottom of the market now (since there is so little credit), and I don’t believe we are. Even now there are buyers for houses, but they are not willing to part with the money being asked on the majority of properties. The bottom of the market will be reached a) when unstressed sellers realise that the unrealistic asking prices will never be met, and b) when stressed sellers are forced to sell at whatever price they can get (e.g. by foreclosures).

I have to laugh sometimes, reading these kinds of threads. When prices show a drop, no-one questions the figures but when they show a rise, however miniscule, no-one believes it and there’s a scramble to try and explain the reasons (sale of big houses distorting the market, cash-rich investors pulling their loot out of banks, delusional purchasers, seasonal feel-good factors, dead cat bounce etc etc etc.)

Perhaps the figures are showing a slight rise in the Dublin market because, er, there’s been a slight rise in the Dublin market!

(It’s the same with Live Register figures. People saying it’s all down to emigration not new jobs. Well, if we’re going to count in all the recent immigrants who’ve become unemployed, it’s only fair to count the emigrants. We’ve probably imported more unemployment than we’ve exported)

surely the lack of repossessions is actually keeping prices artificially high.

Thats rubbish … the bottom of the market is when demand rises and supply begins to fall. This can only be done when credit is available.

I think people are questioning the statistics because that has not been their experience (or reality) in looking to buy property in Dublin recently. To use an analogy would you believe an index that said that restaurant prices in Dublin have risen in the last year?

It’s possible of course. Just quite unlikely because:

a) It would be seriously bucking the trend of continuous significant falls
b) The quoted figures aren’t even consistent with themselves.

There are quite rational reasons for being dubious. It’s not just Pinster doomerism.

I’d compare this analyisis to Homer with his suckling pig…

i take most of the nonsense on here with a pinch of salt but i do agree on this one. The trend is down. We will see further price declines in Dublin. A 12% decline cannot suddenly reverse without a massive positive macro economic shock. We havent had one. Unemployment is at 14% and rising. Interest rates are rising. Mortgage default is rising. Credit is decreasing. This is fact.

No, I probably wouldn’t believe that restuarant prices had risen but I seem to remember that quite a few contributors here have been outbid on properties they were chasing in recent months. I’m seeing a lot of Sale-agreeds and Solds on houses that have been on the market for a long period. While I don’t believe there’s going to be an overall rise in Dublin prices, surely the first indication of some kind of bottom would be statistics like these? Sure, they would have to be consistent over several quarters but let’s say the next batch of figures show another slight rise? What then?