CSO: Rents up 1% over Jan/Feb

CSO is still showing rental inflation of 1% over the Jan/Feb period, nowhere near as strong as the same period last year (2.6%) but still fairly strong.

PDF warning!

cso.ie/releasespublications/ … nt/pic.pdf

:open_mouth: :open_mouth: :open_mouth: :open_mouth: :open_mouth: :open_mouth: :open_mouth: :open_mouth:
Where did they get their data from? I watch daft with the aid of the property bee and I can tell you that asking prices are dropping week after week. And the places for rent are still on daft week after week. I started looking when there were average 44 for Dundrum. The average is now over 60.

Anyone know the details of their methodology? I imagine that they would take account of the ‘quality’ of rental accommodation, but if not that could skew things. E.g. rents could appear to be still climbing because people are paying slightly more but getting significantly higher quality rental accommodation than they would have done previously. However I would be surprised if they didn’t take account of this.

My dad works in a government department and he’s told me stories about reports he’s prepared only to be told (“from upstairs”) to doctor the figures for public consumption. I’m sure it’s the same at the CSO. Sure the yanks have been at it for years and the weighting analysts give to “official reports” has been steadily diminishing for many years now.

If you’re betting pension funds based on CSO statistics you’re going to have very angry people with cattle prods banging down your door very quickly.

Maybe they did an “unbiased survey” of all the major estate agents in Ireland?

Surely that kind of doctoring of official stats would be extremely dangerous. One whistle-blower and the governments statistics credibility would be destroyed, wouldn’t international investors would run a mile if that came to light? Maybe I am being naïve.

Speaking of doctoring of US stats:
nakedcapitalism.com/2008/03/ … -at-8.html

Interesting new statistics group in the UK, the government only gets statistics 1 days before publication, they want to make it 3 hours.
How long before publication to Irish politicians get stats?

economist.com/world/britain/ … d=10737752

The CSO generally make their reports available to govt 1 - 2 hours beforehand, 1 day for national accounts cso.ie/aboutus/pre_release_practice.htm

Unlike in the UK, govt ministers have no input into the timing or content of official statistics, those decisions rest solely with the Director General of the CSO.
As the producers of statistics are independent of the govt depts whose policy etc will be affected by them, they have no reason to “doctor” the results.

Rents up again in March by 1% according to CSO.

PDF warning:
cso.ie/releasespublications/ … nt/pic.pdf

Have to say that’s highly surprising. Have been keeping an eye on rents in South Dublin, and there’s a substantial over-supply at the moment, particularly of 2 bed apartments. I’ve regularly seen apartments in “good” areas dropping by €50-100 over a number of consecutive days, and still remaining on Daft. Perhaps the market is holding up better in other areas where rents were less over-inflated last year.

Incidentally, last Sunday I happened to meet two agents - one showing an apartment, another holding an opening viewing on a house. Is Sunday work for EAs common now?

Absolute lies. Where’s their proof cause I got proof they are dropping.

It’s quite possible that rents in some locations are falling, but in others they are rising enough to more than offset the falls. Admittedly I’m surprised as well, as from my own experience and anecdotal stories the rental market appears to be softening.

They’re just behind the times is all, boys. It will probably be summer before they produce anything indicating a noticeable drop.

Lads rents are holding up and increasing slightly in some areas and this is further proof of it. This is the third month in a row that the CSO have recorded 1% increase in rents, so to dismiss the stats is ridiculous.

I would imagine that if the CSO came out with stats indicating a 1% monthly fall in rents the validity of the stats would not be disputed, lets have a bit of consistency for once. When the CSO issue negative data it is accepted as fact, when they issue data(such as this piece) that does not suit certain posters(not all) the CSO are rubbished as being unreliable!

**They are being disputed because I among others have real current proof of serious falls. **We on the Pin have a bloody history of being well ahead of the curve. The Stats that are calculated by any “official” body in this country are seriously suspect at best.

nonBeliever I can’t believe you read the posts here and are competely unmoved by them. It would be better for you if you opened you mind a little. Currently you are driving 100 mph the wrong way down a road with a blindfold on. Remove it before it is too late.

Of course they would be disputed.

Nobody would believe that rents have only fallen by 1%! (Apart from your good self who would be telling us they haven’t fallen :wink: ).

Been to Tullamore or Portlaoise lately? You can’t give away the rental properties.

These are the figures for 2 beds to rent in D4 in various price brackets.

Date 12/11/2007 to 15/04/2008
<1600 14 to 32
1600-1800 32 to 39
1800-2000 40 to 41
2000-2500 42 to 58
2500-3000 34 to 47
3000-4000 15 to 18
4000-5000 7 to 5

5000 0 to 0

Total 184 to 240

The 2000 to 2500 bracket is the most interesting. Up to about January
the numbet in that bracket declined, and the lower brackets increased, which suggested rents were falling in that bracket.

Since January the number available in the 2000 to 2500 bracket have increased, and it’s the bracket below it that’s decreasing (the bracket above it is fairly static.

So that looks like increasing rents, or at least increasing asking prices.

Total Supply has been climbing steadily in all brackets except the 4000-5000 bracket where the number available dropped from 7 to 5. The number in that bracket peaked at 9 in October.

This is way too small a sample to really learn anything from, but it does show that total supply is up 31%. And supply is growing faster in the cheaper brackets, e.g. Supply in the sub 1600 bracket is up 128%.

The only real measure of rents is what people are paying. Anyone have a renewal coming up soon?

-Rd

I should have qualified my previous post by restricting what I said about the market to Dublin, I know nothing about the state of the rental market outside of Dublin. I can tell you that rents are holding up and are at least 5% in excess of this time last year, the CSO confirm this and you guys still dispute it! Unf**kinbelievable!

How can someone with your username complain about belief and evidence? :stuck_out_tongue: