CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread


#2122

Nah. Can’t take them seriously after the time they got the year wrong for the whole report. Also, they continuously mix up asking prices and selling prices.

But I’m fairly sure I remember this being one of ps’s, so it’s probably impeccable.


#2123

Wow 2.9%?! Maybe this is start of the end of that fabled dead cat bounce that was doing the rounds here years, literally, ago…


#2124

I can understand why you might have blotted it from your memory! :smiley:
It is from a Pearson rank correlation I performed between the CSO RPPI and my own asking prices per sq. ft. scraped from myhome.ie. The correlation was 96%. There has been a blip upward in asking prices as of March’s snapshot. It’s only 1-2% over the first quarter, but I will not be surprised to see an upward blip in the CSO numbers for March when they appear. Nothing guaranteed of course.


#2125

The lack of lag suggests the CSO index drives asking prices.


#2126

There is a seasonal effect. January sales probably reflect sale agreeds in November, well past the summer selling season.

There is an empirically robust relationship between thinner markets and lower prices.

It could only be in the range of 2-3% but thats what we’re talking about.

PS: I say this every year, which means it must be spring:-)


#2127

Thanks ps. I wonder what the causative link is – I assume there is one.


#2128

As regards thinner markets the BPFI data shows strong mortgage drawdowns through Q4 2015 but the leading indicator of approvals declining since last July with declines accelerating and now at lowest level since early 2014


#2129

This is what seasonality looks like in approvals volumes.

https://s12.postimg.org/ege3yxwp9/Screen_Shot_2016_03_02_at_11_52_05.png


#2130

Those “trendiness” are really misleading.


#2131

Trendlines? Depends how you interpret them.

To me they just exemplify the futility of extrapolation.


#2132

CSO Residential Property Price Index – January 2016 & Overall figures:

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … nuary2016/

Caveats:

  1. The above stats are for Mortgage Transactions only as Cash Transactions are still not included.
    Per the official PPR there were 48,184 Property Purchases Q1 2015-Q4 2015 as at 2/3/16.
    Per BPFI there were 26,034 Mortgage Drawdowns Q1 2015-Q4 2015. See here for details viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001
    Therefore 46.0% of all Sales were Cash purchases in the period Q1 2015-Q4 2015.
    This compares to 50.6% cash sales in 2014 and 52.2% in 2013.

Every CSO report from February 2013 to January 2016 has stated “The CSO is currently examining Stamp Duty returns to the Revenue Commissioners, made via the Revenue Online Service (ROS), with a view to assessing both the extent of cash-based full market price transactions and any potential bias in the RPPI that might accrue from their exclusion.”
We still await the results of this obviously in-depth report.

  1. The number of transactions per quarter is still not disclosed by the CSO, despite the new Property Price Register being available since 30 Sep 2012. So if there are relatively few sales in that period, this can lead to large drops or rises, thus skewing the results.

  2. This index, based on mortgage draw-down data from IBF member banks, is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


#2133

Out Now

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ruary2016/

In the year to February, residential property prices at a national level, increased by 8.0%. This compares with an increase of 7.6% in January and an increase of 14.9% recorded in the twelve months to February 2015. See Table 1

Residential property prices showed no change in the month of February. This compares with a decrease of 0.5% recorded in January and a decrease of 0.4% recorded in February of last year. See Table 1.

In Dublin residential property prices decreased by 0.1% in February and were 4.0% higher than a year ago. Dublin house prices decreased by 0.3% in the month and were 4.0% higher compared to a year earlier. Dublin apartment prices were 4.3% higher when compared with the same month of 2015. See Tables 6, 7 and 8. However, it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series.


#2134

A 3.2% drop since the high of last October for Dublin houses. Looking good for whoever predicted circa 5% drop over the course of the year. Will still most likely be July/ August before we see a year on year drop but thats 4 months in a row of drops. Is it likely people will be less panicked into buying now that they see the runaway train has stopped? I dont believe we will see prices drop too much more since a lot of people have a lot more money in their pockets than even this time last year.


#2135

Yet the Times still spin it as wildly bullish, that’s how Joe Soap will read it. :frowning:


#2136

Have you the link to the Times piece on it? I wonder how they will be able to spin it when we get year on year decreases?


#2137

irishtimes.com/business/econ … -1.2591985


#2138

In fairness they are stating facts. Its in their interest to talk property up but I’m really only interested in Dublin prices and they are settling down and they do report that. I’ve just rented for another 12 months and am waiting to see how the likes of a possible Brexit affect things but it is nice to know the panic should be somewhat gone from the Dublin market by the time I start looking again in a few months time.


#2139

Just a thought, but…
…given that the Approvals under the pre-CB restrictions are probably through the system by now, my gut feel was that there would be larger (15%ish) drops in Dublin in the 350-500k bracket. This does not appear to have happened, but a 5-10% drop from mid-14 (in my area of South Dublin - for the few houses in that bracket!) seems to be where it’s at.

Bearing in mind the artificial freeze while a cohort built their potential reserves in the last 18 months “deposit race”, I could see that cohort re-enter the market with a beefed up deposit. I think that, and incremental salary increases, will drive Dublin prices over next 2 years.

The CB rules - as a step change to the system - took a cohort out of play. What happens when that cohort start to come back in. I feel this demand (prompted again by 2017 rent increases) will happen before any significant supply comes to Dublin market.


#2140

2014 and 2015 started with declines from the Oct-Dec levels of the preceding years, but then went on to post growth in prices from Spring through to the end of the year. So it’s a bit early to suppose that price drops will continue throughout 2016.


#2141

CSO Residential Property Price Index – February 2016 & Overall figures:

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ruary2016/

Caveats:

  1. The above stats are for Mortgage Transactions only as Cash Transactions are still not included.
    Per the official PPR there were 48, 395 Property Purchases Q1 2015-Q4 2015 as at 30/3/16.
    Per BPFI there were 26,034 Mortgage Drawdowns Q1 2015-Q4 2015. See here for details viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001
    Therefore 46.2% of all Sales were Cash purchases in the period Q1 2015-Q4 2015. This figure will increase as the PPR is updated during 2016.
    This compares to 50.6% cash sales in 2014 and 52.2% in 2013.

Every CSO report from February 2013 to February 2016 has stated “The CSO is currently examining Stamp Duty returns to the Revenue Commissioners, made via the Revenue Online Service (ROS), with a view to assessing both the extent of cash-based full market price transactions and any potential bias in the RPPI that might accrue from their exclusion.”
We still await the results of this obviously in-depth report.

  1. The number of transactions per quarter is still not disclosed by the CSO, despite the new Property Price Register being available since 30 Sep 2012. So if there are relatively few sales in that period, this can lead to large drops or rises, thus skewing the results.

  2. This index, based on mortgage draw-down data from IBF member banks, is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.