CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread


#2141

CSO Residential Property Price Index – February 2016 & Overall figures:

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ruary2016/

Caveats:

  1. The above stats are for Mortgage Transactions only as Cash Transactions are still not included.
    Per the official PPR there were 48, 395 Property Purchases Q1 2015-Q4 2015 as at 30/3/16.
    Per BPFI there were 26,034 Mortgage Drawdowns Q1 2015-Q4 2015. See here for details viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001
    Therefore 46.2% of all Sales were Cash purchases in the period Q1 2015-Q4 2015. This figure will increase as the PPR is updated during 2016.
    This compares to 50.6% cash sales in 2014 and 52.2% in 2013.

Every CSO report from February 2013 to February 2016 has stated “The CSO is currently examining Stamp Duty returns to the Revenue Commissioners, made via the Revenue Online Service (ROS), with a view to assessing both the extent of cash-based full market price transactions and any potential bias in the RPPI that might accrue from their exclusion.”
We still await the results of this obviously in-depth report.

  1. The number of transactions per quarter is still not disclosed by the CSO, despite the new Property Price Register being available since 30 Sep 2012. So if there are relatively few sales in that period, this can lead to large drops or rises, thus skewing the results.

  2. This index, based on mortgage draw-down data from IBF member banks, is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


#2142

Chart below shows the change in Dublin house prices over the previous three months since the series begain in 2005.

There is a very clear pattern of a local minimum in or around February every year. The only year where you could argue it doesn’t show up is 2007. Bear in mind these patterns were visible where the underlying trends were massive - between -15% and +18% for certain years.

As I have hypothesised before the thinner market in the autumn and winter leads to lower sale agreed prices which turn drive lower mortgage drawdowns early in the new year.

I have done formal statistical testing on this in the past (can’t show results here) and it holds for the national index too.

So basically no one’s anecdotal conclusions are valid until at least 3 more data points.


#2143

But isn’t the CSO sub-index already a 3-month moving average?


#2144

Here’s the Indo’s take :unamused:

Apartment prices rise as investors swoop in
independent.ie/irish-news/ap … 86485.html


#2145

ah yes Canny and Savvy swooping in …Christ!!! Here’s a predication for ya …the chat in the pubs is about to get a lot duller!!


#2146

Swoop, Surge, Soar!! Last time it was credit, is this mini-bubble in Dublin an Indo driven bubble?


#2147

Are these people not also “vultures”? Or does that not apply to canny & just to “foreigners” for some strange reason ?

Note - vultures isn’t my word I’m just pointing out the contradictory tripe the (S)Indo constantly publishes


#2148

Is it really investors or is it just the central bank rules, market stability and rising rents making apartments an attractive option for first time buyers once again?

The monthly mortgage + management fee on most apartments in Dublin is lower then the monthly rent.
It also offers stability of tenure and the chance to have decor & furniture that’s actually to your own taste.

I though investors were leaving the market in droves?!? :unamused:


#2149

they are …they’re selling to canny and savvy :smiley:


#2150

The Indo again… this is like something Brendan O’Connor would write. Dreadful stuff

independent.ie/opinion/comme … 86484.html

Not a mention of prices being too high…no, just lend them more money.

At least this piece allowed comments , something very rare these days on an Indo Property article


#2151

Correct. Think of it as ‘quarter-on-quarter’ change for the quarter ending for each month in question. Seasonal pattern is quite clear.


#2152

So you’re taking a 3-month moving average and averaging it over 3 months? What am I missing here?


#2153

I am taking the average of three months ending in month t and calculating the % rate of change over the average of the three months in ending t-3.

CSO only do the moving average thing because the sub-indices are bouncy. I would prefer they just published an unsmoothed series and a seasonally-adjusted one.


#2154

Hot off the press

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublication … march2016/

Price Index (Jan 2005=100) Monthly % change Annual % change

Mar 2016 86.7 0.3% 7.4%


#2155

Dublin up 3.9% over 12 months. How long before it hits the rate of inflation.


#2156

I thought housing costs and rents are excluded from inflation figures? I never understood why since its like one of the main costs for everyone…

We could endup with higher and higher wages, and are already seeing wage demands and strikes.
But I doubt product prices would increase especially with low oil prices.

3.9% hmm, a long way to go to my 10% prediction :mrgreen:


#2157

Sorry, I meant “how long before annual price growth converges with the rate of inflation”. Which is the best place for it to be for the long term IMHO.


#2158

Well, current rate of inflation is effectively 0. It probably (hopefully) won’t be like that long-term, though…


#2159

Indeed.


#2160

Never got around to posting this last week…

CSO Residential Property Price Index – March 2016 & Overall figures:

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … march2016/

Caveats:

  1. The above stats are for Mortgage Transactions only as Cash Transactions are still not included.
    Per the official PPR there were 48,510 Property Purchases in 2015 as at 26/4/16.
    Per BPFI there were 26,034 Mortgage Drawdowns in 2015. See here for details viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001
    Therefore 46.3% of all Sales were Cash purchases in 2015. This figure will increase as the PPR is updated during 2016.
    This compares to 50.6% cash sales in 2014 and 52.2% in 2013.

Every CSO report from February 2013 to March 2016 has stated “The CSO is currently examining Stamp Duty returns to the Revenue Commissioners, made via the Revenue Online Service (ROS), with a view to assessing both the extent of cash-based full market price transactions and any potential bias in the RPPI that might accrue from their exclusion.”
We still await the results of this obviously in-depth report.

  1. The number of transactions per quarter is still not disclosed by the CSO, despite the new Property Price Register being available since 30 Sep 2012. So if there are relatively few sales in that period, this can lead to large drops or rises, thus skewing the results.

  2. This index, based on mortgage draw-down data from IBF member banks, is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.