CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread


#2161

Dublin house prices are up for the first time in five months.


#2162

This happens every year and is to do with the seasonality of the market.

It’s particularly visible when you plot the data in q-o-q terms. There’s a dip in first few months of year then it picks up. This has been the case every year right through the housing cycle.

As I may have posted several times, the CSO should publish a seasonally-adjusted RPPI like they do with several other series.


#2163

You’re right. I never noticed that before. :blush:


#2164

excuse my ignorance, whats q-o-q? quarter on quarter?


#2165

Yes


#2166

Residential Property Price Index April 2016

Up in Dublin, down outside Dublin.


#2167

Yes, but properties outside of Dublin up 9.5% y o y.


#2168

Dublin apartments are only up 1.1% year on year, down from eye-watering rates of up to 35% in 2014/15. Since this is a large component of some of the vulture fund portfolios, I wonder if we’ll see a rush for the exits in the near future from those who were in it for the capital appreciation.


#2169

Dublin - Houses: Up 5% yoy.

I’m continually surprised by the resilience in the face of the LTV/LTI restrictions.
If 5% since last April (albeit including a somewhat typical summer/autumn peak & winter dip) is what the stats are showing… I’d be fearful of a more pronounced increase by this time next year. When the deposit saving & 2016 pay increases cohort start to come through to Dublin market.

I sometimes have a hard time explaining to countryside-located friends that what they see as a “modest, sustainable 5% increase” (as described often by the media vessels) in Dublin, means someone looking to buy a fairly average small house is seeing the price shift up 20k(!) from 400k to 420k.
The baseline price is just so high now in most of Dublin.


#2170

Credit may be limited for purchasers in the lower centiles. But stock is also limited. Enough so as to not flood the market the higher centile purchasers resulting in competition. What I mean is that there are still people with the finance available via mortgage, cash, Permaparent TSB, inheritance etc.

There are people being squeezed out due to not having the funds and then there are others who are paying but are paying above the odds of what they should be were the market functioning normally/rationally*.

I should qualify my use of the term “normally”. Perhaps “my idea of normal” would be better suited. The Irish market has been bonkers for nearly two decades now so what is normal?


#2171

CSO Residential Property Price Index – April 2016 & Overall figures:

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … april2016/


Caveats:

  1. The above stats are for Mortgage Transactions only as Cash Transactions are still not included.
    Per the official PPR there were 48,510 Property Purchases in 2015 as at 26/4/16.
    Per BPFI there were 26,031 Mortgage Drawdowns in 2015. See here for details viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001
    Therefore 46.5% of all Sales were Cash purchases in 2015. This figure will increase as the PPR is updated during 2016.
    This compares to 50.6% cash sales in 2014 and 52.3% in 2013.

Every CSO report from February 2013 to April 2016 has stated “The CSO is currently examining Stamp Duty returns to the Revenue Commissioners, made via the Revenue Online Service (ROS), with a view to assessing both the extent of cash-based full market price transactions and any potential bias in the RPPI that might accrue from their exclusion.”
We still await the results of this obviously in-depth report.

  1. The number of transactions per quarter is still not disclosed by the CSO, despite the new Property Price Register being available since 30 Sep 2012. So if there are relatively few sales in that period, this can lead to large drops or rises, thus skewing the results.

  2. This index, based on mortgage draw-down data from IBF member banks, is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


#2172

Any guesses for where prices are headed this month? I think we are now closing in on the point where people can get the extra money together to get their 20% deposits together and we will start to see prices rising slightly month on month.


#2173

RPPI update due tomorrow BTW.


#2174

+1.3% to +2%


#2175

0.2% National and 0.1% for Dub

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … exmay2016/


#2176

Out by an order of magnitude :smiley:


#2177

Interesting to see Dublin apartments down -1.1% year-on-year


#2178

I limit my predictions as always to Dublin houses (up 0.4%). However there is no doubt the index is up a lot less than I expected :blush:


#2179

I was in agreement with your prediction. I dont want prices to increase but am struggling to see how they wont. Have to say I’m happy with todays.


#2180

Yes, and consistently down month-on-month every month except February this year, while Dublin houses are going the other direction.