CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread


#2201

Completely anecdotally but from my perspective and in the areas we are looking (D6w/D14/D16) there does appear to be an upward limit on bog standard 3 and 4 bed semi-ds. Nicer houses i.e. detached, fully renovated, perceived prestigious road/estate are still commanding premiums which I assume is cash fueled.

The CBI limits appear to have set an upper limit of sorts for the areas. This is only a good thing as the supply v demand is massively out of kilter and the new LTV/LTI rules are keeping a lid on things imo


#2202

I’d same the entire series will be revised, not just 2016 and 2015.

Unlike say the GDP 26% figure which was caused by new EU rules going forward only; this is a change in methodology so can be revised backwards


#2203

From the PDF:

The new RPPI will involve revisions to the existing series back to January 2010, the date from which Stamp Duty
returns are available with improved quality and timeliness.

Also this:

In addition, new regional and Dublin area price indices will be published along with an extensive range of additional
indicators, covering specifically the volumes, values and average prices of the transactions.


#2204

Ah thanks I missed that.


#2205

Some pretty charts here.


#2206

Report mentions Dublin apartments down by 0.5% over the past twelve months but going by the figures it looks like a 0.5% increase.


#2207

BER exempt properties are a very small share of transactions. Anyway, sale values will still be included, just the hedonic component will not be included in the model.

Here’s another prediction btw (see my last one viewtopic.php?f=4&t=66204). That there will be no appreciable drift in the levels of the new and old index and that the year-on-year dynamics will be broadly the same.

There is not and has never been a separate, parallel market for cash transactions and it’ll be good to put the conspiracy theories to rest.


#2208

What’s the share of BER absent properties? The requirement to have a BER just to advertise a house for sale has not been ruthlessly enforced. Have solicitors/banks been more insistent at the transaction stage?

Are pinsters going to have to revise the 2000+ posts in this thread? TheJackal may have to hire staff :nin


#2209

Ahh, the advantage of separate charts. Mine will be up to date the day the new index comes out. 8DD


#2210

Yes, I believe it’s not possible to close without producing a BER cert or some sort of proof of exemption.


#2211

Says who??? I don’t believe these stats are published.

In Dublin City there are close to 9000 protected structures alone out of approx 200,000 private dwellings; however a protected structure could have multiple dwellings in it presumably (lots of old houses divided into flats). Plus all the other exemptions. So it could be 10% of the market.


#2212

There are 534,652 residential units in the four Dublin local authorities. There are around 12,200 protected structures, mainly residential units, in the four Dublin local authorities. This is around 2.3%.


#2213

But we don’t know how many units per protected structure.


#2214

It cannot bias the estimate very much. This is just basic statistics.

Purchase price will still be in the equation. Only the other characteristics of BER exempt properties missing. In any case there will be a dummy variable for BER exempt. Many of these properties have similar characteristics reducing the risk of omitted variable bias.


#2215

I doubt that last part is true. Most exempt properties are houses not apartments, for example. So houses may be slightly under-represented in the hedonistic regression compared to apartments. Not by much of course but could be 5-10% perhaps in some areas?

Obviously this new index sounds way better than what we currently have but it’s important to think about its limitations. It may be that the CSO is correcting for them for example but we won’t know if we don’t ask!


#2216

Your point that most BER-exempt properties are houses supports mine.

Bias is reduced if these properties are heterogeneous.


#2217

Not for the national index. It’s the opposite. Bias would be reduced if the BER-exempt properties were distributed across the property types.

Also exempt properties are presumably older.


#2218

You don’t understand how this works statistically.


#2219

Actually I do. I believe you’re misunderstanding the potential issue.


#2220

CSO Residential Property Price Index – June 2016 & Overall figures:

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … xjune2016/

Caveats:

  1. Per the official PPR there were 48,742 Property Purchases in 2015 as at 29/7/16.
    Per BPFI there were 26,031 Mortgage Drawdowns in 2015. See here for details viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001
    Therefore 46.6% of all Sales were Cash purchases in 2015. This figure will increase as the PPR is updated during 2016. This compares to 50.6% cash sales in 2014 and 52.3% in 2013.

  2. The above stats are currently for Mortgage Transactions only as Cash Transactions are not included. However, per information note from the June 2016 results,
    “CSO will launch a new Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) for Ireland in early September 2016. The new index will replace the existing monthly RPPI.
    The new RPPI will be based on Stamp Duty returns made to the Revenue Commissioners matched with other administrative data. It will now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions.
    The new RPPI represents a significant methodological improvement over the existing RPPI (based on mortgage data from the credit institutions) as it includes cash purchases, higher quality source data and more detailed locational characteristics in the price model.”

  3. The number of transactions per quarter is not disclosed by the CSO. So if there are relatively few sales in that period (e.g. Apartment sales), this can lead to large drops or rises, thus skewing the short-term results.

  4. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.