CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread


#2241

New user friendly interactive tool provides access to valuable local residential property information at a glance

cso.ie/en/media/csoie/newsev … PItool.pdf


#2242

CSO Residential Property Price Index – August 2016 & Overall figures:

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ugust2016/


Notes:

  1. Per the official PPR there were 21,213 Property Purchases in Jan-Jun 2016 as at 21/10/16.
    Per BPFI there were 11,400 Mortgage Drawdowns in Jan-Jun 2016. See here for details viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001
    Therefore 46.3% of all Sales were Cash purchases to date in 2016.
    This compares to 47.6% cash sales in 2015, 50.7% in 2014 and 52.3% in 2013.

  2. As of September 2016 the Index has been updated to now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. All previous figures have been revised using this new method to January 2005.

  3. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


#2243

So we are looking at least another 50% rises across the country in coming years just to reach the previous peak? just shows how insane the naughties were


#2244

Latest CSO RPPI in Pretty Charts now. A dozen new regional breakdowns are available.

I note they point out that since they are now using PPR data, the numbers for the most recent two months are provisional and subject to revision.


#2245

Don’t worry - with our Gubbernment’s help, we’ll get there!
:-GC


#2246

Realistically, as long as the central bank rules (and other post-crash regulation, restrictions on btl, self-cert illegal etc) remain in force, we will not.

Of course, if FF get back in they may just remove all that.


#2247

Despite all the noise to the contrary I think a 10-20% ‘correction’ to Dublin prices is long overdue. I think at 450-600K the average semi-d in Dublin is now out of too many peoples reach. The only people I know buying at these levels are those getting huge dig-outs from their parents. How long can that last?


#2248

They can now also get huge dig-outs from the government :-GC


#2249

At least the next 10 to 20 years.
Thousands of public sector parents in mid-fifties and sixties age group in Dublin, without mortgages or with low mortgages, with retirement lump sums and (relatively) high guarenteed state pensions stretching out for their retirement years… they have the ability to keep pumping money out to their twenties/thirties aged kids for quite a while yet.
And that’s before you look at the amount of private sector retirees in Dublin turning up at house viewings with their kids… with a good chunk of cash in tow.

Quite a few of my younger work colleagues are encountering this at house viewings in Dublin, and it depresses them beyond belief as they can’t compete with that firepower.
Life isn’t fair or equal for all, but it is tough on people encountering that this is the playing field.

Already a few work colleagues in their thirties have moved down the country for other lower paying jobs - but with an even lower cost of living, it makes sense for them.


#2250

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublication … ember2016/

Month Price Index Monthly % change Annual % change
July 2016 85.4 2.4 6.6
Aug 2016 86.6 1.4 6.8
Sept 2016 87.7 1.3 7.3


#2251

Looking at the graphic in the IT on the story about today’s house price rises
irishtimes.com/business/econ … -1.2872012
with Jan 05 as base = 100, Sept16 is at 89.8 for Dublin. So we should hit 2005 prices by late 2017.

If I recall correctly, there was quite a few commentators saying at the time that we were in prime bubble territory in 2005!


#2252

A quick check on CSO table ‘HPM06’ shows Sep 2016 value of Dublin Resi at 89.8 was last seen in June 2009


#2253

I haven’t heard the phrase dead cat bounce around these parts for a while…


#2254

Dublin prices are up 63% in three years. If that doesn’t scare the shit out of people … well then we’re probably back to bubble mentality as well as bubble prices.

We are certainly near bubble growth rates:


(From C. Gurdgiev, True Economics blog)


#2255

CSO Residential Property Price Index – September 2016 & Overall figures:

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ember2016/

Notes:

  1. Per the official PPR there were 33,878 Property Purchases in Jan-Sep 2016 as at 17/11/16.
    Per BPFI there were 18,993 Mortgage Drawdowns in Jan-Sep 2016. See here for details viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001
    Therefore 43.9% of all Sales were Cash purchases to date in 2016.
    This compares to 47.6% cash sales in 2015, 50.7% in 2014 and 52.3% in 2013.

  2. As of September 2016 the Index has been updated to now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. All previous figures have been revised using this new method to January 2005.

  3. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.


#2256

The continued recovery in house prices is hardly a surprise, or a reason to panic. Average house prices are now at the level they were in 2004. Back then, GDP per capita was about 48,000 USD. Today, it’s around 56,000. In the interim, we had a boom and a massive bust, when house prices went up far too high, and then overshot on the way down. The collapse in house prices was a result of a recession, a huge spike in unemployment, and a lack of credit. Add in demographic pressures and the lack of building in the past 10 years, and it’s hardly surprising that prices are rising (but are largely being kept in check by the CB rules). In any case, the answer, as we all know, is to increase supply, but that can only happen when prices are above build cost.


#2257

YoY growth to September in Dublin is way ahead of nominal inflation, in spite of the CB slamming the brakes on. Elsewhere in the country it is as high as 15%. There is still a chronic mortgage arrears problem and a rental and homelessness crisis. High build costs are due to a combination of government policy, government ineptitude, and a government-supported bubble in commercial property. The mid-2000s collapse in house prices was not the result of a recession, it was the cause of it. Global factors were merely the trigger, contrary to FF revisionism. 20% of employment and 20% of our economy was based purely on selling houses to each other and too much wealth was in fictitious home equity. GDP per capita is, as we well know, the result of Leprechaun Economics, not anything to do with the real Irish economy.

In 2013 the average Dublin house was 8.3 times earnings, and that was when the “recovery” was only starting to take hold. In 2016, Dublin prices are rated as “seriously unaffordable”. The media have gone back to touting vested interests – just yesterday prime time RTE news had VIs talking about “healthy price increases” and a “spreading recovery”, and Savills’ Director of Research (a.k.a. chief tout) predicting 10% rises in Dublin next year. You are right that it’s hardly surprising that prices are going up due to demand and market manipulation … but if there’s no reason to panic it’s only because you get used to the housing market being a basket case after nearly two decades of it.

https://i266.photobucket.com/albums/ii269/theogrit/1sm117run-for-hills.gif


#2258

I believe the build cost thing is nonsense. New builds in odd place outside the M50 (e.g. Diswellstown, few services and with motorway noise) probably give an indicator of build costs when land isn’t super-expensive.

myhome.ie/residential/broch … ck/3467606

If you look at the price differentials here:

€415,000 for the three bedroom houses - The Eagle (116sq.m/1,248sq.ft) (All Sold)
€500,000 for the four bedroom houses - The G Type (134sq.m/1442sq.ft)
€630,000 for the five bedroom houses - The Links (189sq.m/2,038sq.ft)

The extra 215k between smallest and largest buys 73sqm, so ~3k/sqm.

The reason we don’t have more 400k A-rated new build 3 bed semi-ds in Dublin is probably a combination of land costs and developer finance. Land costs ought to be elastic. I suspect the land for these Diswellstown houses was a sunk cost.

In inner south Dublin these new builds would be priced at 700-800k. Those prices are not a function of build cost.


#2259

+1 ps200306.

On radio yesterday Brian Finn, the RTE financial correspondent, described the 6% year to date increase in house prices in Dublin as ‘healthy growth’ and the 15% increase in Longford as ‘recovering nicely’. What a fool.


#2260

agree

disagree

I hate the phrase “prices are recovering”. It sounds like huge rises are normal, aren’t a bad thing and 2006 prices are the aspiration (well I know they are for a lot of people in this country)

Also why is it only used in house prices? Car insurance costs are going up but are below their early 2000s peak. People spend a fraction of what they spend on accommodation on car insurance. Yet “rip off” insurers are “hiking” premiums. Why aren’t motor insurance premiums simply “recovering”?