CSO Residential Property Price Index - megathread


#2363

CSO Residential Property Price Index – July 2020 & Overall figures:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjuly2020/


Notes:

  1. Per the official PPR there were 58,695 Property Purchases in 2019 as at 16/9/20.

Per BPFI there were 38,771 Mortgage Drawdowns in 2019. See here for details http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001

Therefore 33.9% of all Sales were Cash purchases to date in 2019. This % usually increases slowly over time as the PPR is updated with stamp duty records.

This compares to 36.2% cash sales in 2018, 40.8% in 2017, 45.0% in 2016, 47.9% in 2015, 50.8% in 2014 and 52.6% in 2013.

  1. As of September 2016 the Index has been updated to now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. All previous figures have been revised using this new method to January 2005.

In August 2017, the index was further revised back to Jan 2010. Those figures are used above.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/rrppi/revisionstorppijune2017/

  1. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.

#2364

https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2020pressreleases/pressstatementresidentialpropertypriceindexseptember2020andpricetrendsfornewandexistingdwellingsq32020/

Central Statistics Office (CSO) publishes quarterly price trends for new and existing dwellings for the first time

  • Property prices for new dwellings were 1.7% higher in Q3 2020 compared with the same quarter in 2019, while prices for existing dwellings were 1.6% lower
  • Prices of new dwellings rose by 71.6% from their low point in Q2 2013, while prices of existing dwellings are now 82.2% higher compared to their low point in Q2 2012
  • The monthly Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) decreased by 0.8% nationally in the year to September 2020, with prices in Dublin falling by 1.8% and prices outside Dublin rising by 0.1%
  • In September 2020, there were 3,193 transactions filed with the Revenue Commissioners by households, a fall of 22.2% compared to September 2019, but an increase of 35.4% compared to August 2020
  • In the 12 months to September 2020, the lowest median price for a house was €107,000 in Leitrim, while the highest median price within the Dublin region was €535,000 in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown

#2365

House prices in Dublin down nearly 2%…is there a breakdown of that fall within Dublin regions?


#2366

CSO Residential Property Price Index – September 2020 & Overall figures:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexseptember2020/


Notes:

  1. Per the official PPR there were 58,755 Property Purchases in 2019 as at 18/11/20.

Per BPFI there were 38,771 Mortgage Drawdowns in 2019. See here for details http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=26451&p=814001

Therefore 34.0% of all Sales were Cash purchases to date in 2019. This % usually increases slowly over time as the PPR is updated with stamp duty records.

This compares to 36.2% cash sales in 2018, 40.8% in 2017, 45.0% in 2016, 47.9% in 2015, 50.9% in 2014 and 52.6% in 2013.

  1. As of September 2016 the Index has been updated to now cover all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. All previous figures have been revised using this new method to January 2005.

In August 2017, the index was further revised back to Jan 2010. Those figures are used above.

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/rrppi/revisionstorppijune2017/

  1. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.

#2367
  1. This index is a lagging indicator of the Irish mortgage market. These houses were probably Sale Agreed 3-6 months ago, depending on how long it took for the sale to go through. So it may no longer be reflective of current market conditions.

That is the key point - we are looking at properties that went sale agreed between March and June. Most were on the market well before the first lockdown. The CSO index won’t tell us much about the COVID property market for another few months.

The tiny overall movements disguise large and apparently arbitrary variations between different sectors e.g. houses in the Mid-West fell by -5.7% but houses in the Midlands rose by +4%. I suspect this is about a decline in transactions, rather than real price trends.

Prices have been practically stable for the past two years. In the 8 years since the trough of mid-2012, almost all the increase in the CSO price index has come in two short periods (Mar. 2013 to Oct. 2014 and then April - Dec. 2017). Apart from those two spurts, the index has increased by an average of about 1.3 point per year. We like to think that property brings steady returns but, even in the good times, it is erratic. The only people who made big profits since the bust are those who bought before 2014.


#2368

Huge numbers of properties have been sitting on the market since at least Feb/March when I began paying attention.

We’re still in the phony war element of this contraction whereby most wages are still being subsidised by the State. Many, maybe most, remain in the ‘wait and see’ phase. As noted above, this is reflected in massively decreased volumes rather than any great decrease in asking prices (however rentals are crashing by in the region of 20% over the past couple of months alone ).

I fail to see how an economic correction of the levels predicted does not result in residential following rentals…at the margins to begin with and later feeding into the more maninstream market segments. Caveat being an apparent increased appetite for homes with good gardens based on lockdown. Maybe ‘new normal’ saves some segments. But overall, is there precedent for wider property prices maintaining their value throughout significant recession/depression? Obviously a snap back in economic terms changes things. But whats more likely as of now?


#2369

Very hard to predict the post-COVID world but prices will still be supply v. demand, so long as you understand that demand means availability of credit, not actual need for human habitation.

Supply is being constrained by the lockdown and, even in the most optimistic scenario, it was going to fall short of demographic growth in household numbers.

It is possible that the economy will tank if we remain in lockdown but so far we are doing OK because we can pile up debt with the ECB. One scenario is that 1970s style inflation will return and that will push house prices to new levels.

If I needed a house right now, I would buy at current prices. If not, I would hold onto cash until things become clearer. If I owned a buy to let apartment, I would everything to hold onto my tenant (yeah, yeah… I mean everything! :nauseated_face:)