Current and future demand

[Blindjustice]

Some factors among others:

Birth rate
thejournal.ie/census-shows-f … 9-Mar2012/

THE AVERAGE SIZE of families in Ireland is continuing to decline – but at a slower pace than previous years – according to census data released today.

The figures show that the average number of children in each family is now 1.38 – a drop from 1.41 in 2006.

img2.thejournal.ie/inline/213266 … on=2132661

Net migration rate

The number of immigrants to the State in the year to April 2016 is estimated to have increased by almost 15% from 69,300 to 79,300, while the number of emigrants declined over the same period, from 80,900 to 76,200. These combined changes have resulted in a return to net inward migration for Ireland (+3,100) for the first time since 2009.

thejournal.ie/ireland-popula … 2-Mar2015/

THE ISLAND OF Ireland can expect to hit a population of 10 million before 2050 – and people should “embrace” that growth, the head of the country’s biggest business lobby group says.

But Ibec chief executive Danny McCoy today told the organisation’s CEO Conference at Dublin Castle the government has to act now to boost infrastructure spending to cope with future demand

The total population across the island of Ireland currently stands at about 6.6 million, including an estimated 4.8 million people in the Republic.

However the most-recent projections from the CSO forecast the population in the south alone could swell to 6.7 million by 2046.

kildarestreet.com/debate/?i … 11-02a.343
Eamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party) | Oireachtas source
See the full quote in the link for context

We must start planning for being an island of 10 million people, including bringing people in as refugees in scale, not just 200 people, but a much larger number and managing it.

Household size (a changing variable - due to divorce/seperation rates

independent.ie/life/family/f … 17513.html

According to the most recent Central Statistics Office figures - released earlier this year, but pertaining to 2013 - the crude divorce rate here is 0.6 out of 1,000. That compares with 2 per 1,000 for the UK.
Even more glaring is the percentage of divorced people versus those married in Ireland: it’s 13pc, as opposed to 47pc in Britain.

But those glancing at the figures and assuming the Irish are more loved-up than our nearest neighbours should think again. At least as many people again have opted for judicial separation, bringing the percentage of those who sought to have the end of their marriage recognised much closer to the EU average.

irishcentral.com/news/divorc … -237438531

Results just published from the most recent census in 2011 show that 87,770 people are now legally divorced.

That’s up from the 35,059 listed as divorced in the census carried out in 2002.

This opens up debate on just how big a population we want and the kind of island we want. Increasing urbanisation and its pros and cons etc. Sustainability of pensions/, of the environment etc.
Is a decreasing population a good or bad thing? Is increasing/decreasing productivity the key or even possible ?

[Worstpigeon]

As mentioned on another thread, while birth rates are a little below replacement in the long term (1.9 or so), our young-biased population means that we’ll see substantial natural population increase for the foreseeable future, short of mass emigration or a one-child policy. I don’t think falling population is even something that needs to be on the agenda for a few decades.

Actually, even with the one child policy, birth-rates in China didn’t really start falling for over a decade; this was again due to the age profile of the population.