Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market

Ivor_Lot · July 17, 2011, 8:23am

I tend to rely on logic. This in turn, informs my gut reactions.
There will be many dead cats before this is over.

EconomicCrashDummy · July 17, 2011, 9:28am

What does logic tell you about the financial system Ivor and what is your gut reaction to it?

Ivor_Lot · July 17, 2011, 10:46am

Logic tells me that the Euro,in its current format is not long for this world. If it survives,Ireland will not be part of it. Cuts in rental subsidies are ineveitable and incomes will keep falling. What is the average price of a house in Ireland now?What is the average income?
Gut reaction: I don’t have a penny in either Ireland or the Euro.

Cheeky_Offer · July 23, 2011, 10:31am

Macro economic performance never follows logic. It is less likely to follow your gut.

I think we are at the point where buying is not a financial disaster and provides the opportunity to settle. Bottom pickers have smelly fingers. They also, sometimes, cannot see the wood from the bailout.

Shelter is but one of lifes needs - we in Ireland are as obsessed about it as ever - just for different reasons.

I have made my decision and am now in the market.

iguana · August 19, 2011, 7:19pm

Leaving aside the idiotic comments from the OP there are a few interesting insights into how our neighbours are seeing us.

forums.moneysavingexpert.com/sho … ?t=3267444

discostu · August 19, 2011, 8:17pm

forums.moneysavingexpert.com/sho … ?t=3267444

Re the above always interesting to see ourselves as others see us,one thing though somene had a great line on the Pin during the week might have been on the Endgame approaching thread. It read

“We’re all Irish Now”
I reckon that may well be the case and I have already got the T shirt on order with a picture of Merkel and Sarko on the front and a hurler hitting them on the ass

the_clientele · August 19, 2011, 8:27pm

I think it’s a bit like people from California calling Irish people ‘sheeple’. I mean, if ever there was a failed state, that’s it right there. Arnold friggin Schwarzenegger please.

They should look at themselves out before coming down on us for our sh*t governments and press. Until then:

https://thechive.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/haters-gonna-hate-14.jpg?w=500&h=325

Larry · September 16, 2011, 6:48pm

Poster Theboinkmaster on boards.ie with a nifty little A-Z in a “Should I but now?” thread:

A) Income taxes will rise substantially for everybody
B) Significant Property taxes will be introduced for owners
C) Significant Indirect tax increases- VAT/Excise
D) Interest relief for investors will be further reduced from current 75%
E) Rent Allowance will be decreased by some material percentage
F) Personal Insolvencies will increase when the law is changed in their favour
G) Continued downward wage pressures-or no pay increases at least till 2015
H) As competition in Banking is reduced then mortgage margins will rise
I) Emigration will continue by current and future potential homeowners
J) NAMA releasing finished properties onto the market mopping up demand
K) ECB raising interest rates to normal levels once Europe crises recovers, ie by 1%-3%
L) Property owners/investors in tight financial straits will be forced to sell
M) People realise that property in Ireland is still expensive vs other countries
N) More builders are put into receivership and properties are sold at large discounts - don’t forget there are 300,000 empty properties
O) Rising fuel prices decrease disposable income and discourage commuting
P) The Croke Park aggreement falls apart and public sector pay falls
Q) Unemployment rises and
R) Loss of economic sovereignty
T) Deflation or very low inflation causes debt to have to be repaid in full rather than inflated away at lenders expense.
U) Stiffer regulation forces banks to provide mortgages with more caution
V) Interbank lending to Irish Banks does not return to precrisis levels and the Banks have to price margins very conservatively-A given
W) Building costs decline further as NERA is disbanded and new build houses can be profitably sold for less.
X) Development land has plummeted so land costs can lead to further downward pressure on prices of future developments.
Y) Commercial rents continue to decline and contagion negative pressures apply to residential rents leading to lower property asking prices
Z) Contrarily the current booming birth rate will provide demand in 25 years time-for subsidised housing at the least

boards.ie/vbulletin/showthre … 03&page=10

Homemaker · September 16, 2011, 10:27pm

Larry:

Poster Theboinkmaster on boards.ie with a nifty little A-Z in a “Should I but now?” thread:

A) Income taxes will rise substantially for everybody
B) Significant Property taxes will be introduced for owners
C) Significant Indirect tax increases- VAT/Excise
D) Interest relief for investors will be further reduced from current 75%
E) Rent Allowance will be decreased by some material percentage
F) Personal Insolvencies will increase when the law is changed in their favour
G) Continued downward wage pressures-or no pay increases at least till 2015
H) As competition in Banking is reduced then mortgage margins will rise
I) Emigration will continue by current and future potential homeowners
J) NAMA releasing finished properties onto the market mopping up demand
K) ECB raising interest rates to normal levels once Europe crises recovers, ie by 1%-3%
L) Property owners/investors in tight financial straits will be forced to sell
M) People realise that property in Ireland is still expensive vs other countries
N) More builders are put into receivership and properties are sold at large discounts - don’t forget there are 300,000 empty properties
O) Rising fuel prices decrease disposable income and discourage commuting
P) The Croke Park aggreement falls apart and public sector pay falls
Q) Unemployment rises and
R) Loss of economic sovereignty
T) Deflation or very low inflation causes debt to have to be repaid in full rather than inflated away at lenders expense.
U) Stiffer regulation forces banks to provide mortgages with more caution
V) Interbank lending to Irish Banks does not return to precrisis levels and the Banks have to price margins very conservatively-A given
W) Building costs decline further as NERA is disbanded and new build houses can be profitably sold for less.
X) Development land has plummeted so land costs can lead to further downward pressure on prices of future developments.
Y) Commercial rents continue to decline and contagion negative pressures apply to residential rents leading to lower property asking prices
Z) Contrarily the current booming birth rate will provide demand in 25 years time-for subsidised housing at the least

boards.ie/vbulletin/showthre … 03&page=10

Very comprehensive, a bit disappointed that each point didn’t start with corresponding letter…like that D I S C O song

(and now it’s in your head, sorry)

slasher · September 21, 2011, 4:53pm

just an aside, but I have never seen this before -
presumably they are sick of sale agreeds falling through?

The Old Barracks, Kilcashel, Avoca, Co Wicklow
Ireland

asking price EUR €230,000
search.knightfrank.com/gwr070017

iguana · September 21, 2011, 5:21pm

Ime, cash only properties tend to have something wrong with them that mean a bank won’t take a chance on financing it. Perhaps something that makes it uninsurable.

dowtchaboy · September 21, 2011, 6:06pm

Wow - that asking price surely is a sign of relative normality coming back. What are the odds it’s owed by a foreigner (note the disparate aim on the 2 satellite dishes tho maybe the larger one is for Tooway internet access) who wants out NOW? (preferably before Greece defaults)

slasher · September 21, 2011, 6:07pm

from the Dutch snippet I’d say the odds are high

namascama · September 21, 2011, 8:00pm

The latest price dropping activity hint at pockets of panic on the margins out there. Source: an evenings perusal of Collapso.

Larry · September 27, 2011, 1:01am

An eventful day:

This evening we had a discussion of rental yields as a means of valuing property on RTE 6-1 News, courtesy of Ronan Lyons, which is a first I would have thought.
This morning, there were the CSO figures that showed the rate of the crash is accelerating, especially in Dublin and with apartments (and David Murphy on the airwaves all day reminding people that NAMA was about to release 8,000 more of them.)
Newspaper analysis of Allsop last week, where more properties went unsold than at previous auctions and at which 8%+ yields were again shown to be in line with investor expectations, in an instant wiping another huge chunk off clearing prices.
Joan Burton on the Frontline tonight again banging on about rent allowance.
The Boards.ie Property forum making the Pin look like IrishLandlord.ie these days.

I’m going to stick my neck out and say we have a property crash on our hands here.

Thing_Fish · September 27, 2011, 1:17am

Larry:

An eventful day:

This evening we had a discussion of rental yields as a means of valuing property on RTE 6-1 News, courtesy of Ronan Lyons, which is a first I would have thought.
This morning, there were the CSO figures that showed the rate of the crash is accelerating, especially in Dublin and with apartments (and David Murphy on the airwaves all day reminding people that NAMA was about to release 8,000 more of them.)
Newspaper analysis of Allsop last week, where more properties went unsold than at previous auctions and at which 8%+ yields were again shown to be in line with investor expectations, in an instant wiping another huge chunk off clearing prices.
Joan Burton on the Frontline tonight again banging on about rent allowance.
The Boards.ie Property forum making the Pin look like IrishLandlord.ie these days.

I’m going to stick my neck out and say we have a property crash on our hands here.

I thought things had stabilised an that a year ago that tremendous value was to be had in the marketplace and value like that would never return?

and all this is before any introduction of An Punt Nua

Coles2 · September 27, 2011, 7:08am

A low price and an appeal for a ‘cash purchaser’ suggests to me that there might be a reason why a financial institution might not give a mortgage on the property. My two cents, but I have no particular knowledge of the property in question.

iguana · September 27, 2011, 9:00am

What was the jist of her banging?

Larry · September 27, 2011, 11:09am

It was the very first thing she mentioned in the very first sentence out of her lips on the show, and Kenny’s question wasn’t even about RA! It seems to be the only thing Joan’s been talking about in recent months.

However, I wasn’t entirely concentrating that early in the show and missed the meat of what she said! So I’ll have to watch it back later and remind myself. I think it was something about changing people on RA into a different system altogether, but as I say I need to watch it back.

Dubhgeannain · September 27, 2011, 11:20am

I concur with that, in the last few times I’ve heard her on the radio.

With stories such as this it shouldn’t come as a surprise.