Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market


#3581

Howlin shoots down plan for first-time buyers scheme - Indo

Public Expenditure Minister Brendan Howlin has shot down proposals by members of his own party and Fianna Fáil to reintroduce State funded support for first-time buyers.

“I would be very wary of going back to old instruments that inflated the cost of housing artificially because too many things we did in the past used taxpayer money to inflate the price of houses and enrich people who wanted to sell,” Mr Howlin said in an interview with the Irish Independent.

“Let’s find a system where first-time buyers can have access to a mortgage in the first instance, one that’s affordable in the second instance, and thirdly have access to a supply of houses, which is one of the priorities we took in the Budget to increase the supply of housing to solve that market lapse at the moment,” he added. :open_mouth:


#3582

It’s not often I agree with Howlin but fair dues on this one.


#3583

100% agree with what Howlin says here.
Now if only he wasn’t shooting down a proposal from members of his own party…


#3584

Dear god, someone has finally made the link that giving buyers “aid” merely increases the price! I need to sit down

Now I have to sit down. And have a cool drink of water. Credit to Howlin, even if the skeptic in me (god help me, I wasn’t born like this. This country turned me) thinks someone else (Troika?) are pulling the strings


#3585

Noonan insists banks will feel pressure over variable rates - Indo

Mr Noonan said he expected to receive a report from Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan on the issue of variable rates in the coming days. He told reporters the analysis will detail the “margin that will be justified” in relation to mortgage rates. Mr Noonan will then present the findings at a meeting with the six main financial institutions later this month. “If they continue to say no, we’ll continue to keep talking,” Mr Noonan said. XX


#3586

National newspaper reporting up to 7% fall in Dublin prices in just 3 months. Might force some sellers to reevaluate their asking prices?
independent.ie/business/pers … 53656.html


#3587

Buyers tend to get very nervous when headlines such as these appear.
It usually results in people pulling out.

Would set-up an interesting scenario if this forced additional stock to re-appear just as the usual August/September influx occurred.


#3588

But, but, but …

You can’t believe anything written in the Indo :slight_smile:


#3589

Interesting. Why do buyers pull out?


#3590

Its the reverse of people not selling their house because it will be worth more in six months time. If prices are expected to decrease then buyers will hold off for a better deal in a few months time.


#3591

Also the fact that buyers put everything they have into a purchase.
All chips are in.
5% difference on a €300,000 purchase comes in at €15,000.
For a higher rate taxpayer, that’s a gross €30,000.
Not to be sniffed at.


#3592

That’s interesting to hear alright. It couldn’t have stayed indefinitely. I think a lot of us were surprised by how unabating it was.


#3593

This in itself indicates that the price changes are coming from the banking regulations. First time buyers with their 10% deposits will sustain prices below the 240k mark. The changes are going to affect the 350k to 500k bracket the most in my eyes. People buying above the 500k bracket tend to have large deposits in the first place.


#3594

Those deposits must often depend on sale of house to someone a rung below.

Or else they the result of inheritances - which can often include a property sale.

Effects will take time to roll through the system, some people will get caught with their pants down.

It’s all linked and as someone pointed out before, the FTB cash is the new money entering the market.

The other angle is impact on suppy. People may just stop selling which may prop prices ‘up’ somewhat but slow the speed of everything down.


#3595

good to see limerick recovering , up 10% this year , still 30% cheaper than galway however


#3596

Normally I would agree, however I think the reverse will happen this time.
A lot of sellers are those who held off in the bust.
They waited for the market to rise, but don’t want to get caught with their pants down the second time round.

Think about people’s experience of a falling market and ask yourself how that will affect their behaviour.


#3597

Interesting.

Seller panic meets buyer greed/loss of confidence against a backdrop of a pan-European crisis…

Can sellers move quickly enough to capture the relatively modest gains of last 2 years?


#3598

I wouldn’t get too carried away by this right now…unless EA’s really start pushing vendors to lower expectations then I think it will be a long and drawn out process (unfortunately :frowning:)

Also I wouldn’t call the gains over the past 3 years or so modest


#3599

Definitely not modest gains but I said here a few months back that I’d be happy to buy if prices were 10% less than what they were then. According to this article we are over halfway there already. I know a lot of people got caught out by the rate of increase in 2014 so will be happy to buy with even a modest drawback. I for one wont be chasing the bottom this time.


#3600

I won’t be chasing the bottom either. Foolishly listening to a popular opinion on here of further drops cost me circa 100,000 euro through subsequent price increases and 5 extra years of renting. Will buy in the next few months and end the torture of speculation on which way the market is going.