Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market


#3601

Gains for some are strong.

I said “can sellers move quickly enough to capture relatively modest gains.”

If 7% gone already then speed is of the essence…

I also wonder if some ‘real’ drivers of price like wages rising and/or tax cuts will start to kick in.


#3602

Its really only the past 18 months that the popular opinion on here was wrong but even at that some people called the bottom spot on e.g. 2Pack. The problem is most people chose not to listen because it went against what they wanted to hear. The pin is the place where people come to reaffirm their own belief about where they see (or want to see) property prices heading. They tend to block out opinions that contradict their own. The biggest lesson I’ve learned over time on this site is to listen to both the bulls and the bears rather than ignoring the bears as I did when I started.


#3603

the very essence of this site is ultra bearishness to a crank level and then some

its like this with the property market

Dublin south hit the bottom the end of 2011
Dublin north hit the bottom the spring of 2012
galway city hit the bottom the end of 2012
cork city around the same time
commuter belt hit the bottom the third quarter of 2013
limerick city hit the bottom last summer

the media was incredibly slow in reporting the property recovery but that’s because the media either over eggs it on the upside or the downside , once the narrative sets in , it takes a while to reverse


#3604

Yes it wasn’t the primary funciton of ethos of the pin to bottom spot. There are other sites for that kind of lark! :blush:


#3605

This is the correct answer. If the Indo say it’s 7%, that’s almost certainly the wrong number. It appears to be based on a “survey” by REA. No methodology released.


#3606

true , the pin seemed to be patiently waiting for the day when the average 3 bed semi in Dublin was 90 k


#3607

Most of them pin. You always had Landlord and a few others talking up prices and getting beat up for it. Maybe if the pin wasn’t so hard on the Bulls then the general non informed user (myself included) may have seen the upswing coming.


#3608

There is a very understandable and historically accepted x time income prevalence that spoke to the prudent in all of us.

I think many argued that moving away form that was the big mistake. There have been examples where a semi-d outside of dublin and possibly some in dublin went below 90k for a time and some are still there.

I’ve seen people now realise what happened far too late in the 60-ish generation but they didn’t pay so much mind since they got their gaffs in early 20’s at the low income to value to ratio but now see their kids destroyed with NE and what not.

Nothing wrong with the 2/3 times income argument for a typical family abode which if you look at the average industrial wage points to a not too dissimilar figure.

Reducing that down people want to see normalcy and stability when trying to house themselves and rightly so each other. It should not be an all or nothing one way bet in your life that can ruin you. It’s a very ordinary and unsurprising requirement of any person, family, tribe or highly organised society to require shelter. Where they can make a home.


#3609

Latest Daft report:

daft.ie/report/q2-2015-daft-house-price-report.pdf


#3610

Or maybe improve public transport capacity.

I know people based in London offices who do 10am-3pm in the office and the rest of their working day on the train. They get a very high quality of life. The last time I attempted to commute by train (about 2009) in to Dublin I couldn’t regularly get a seat so it was effectively impossible to work.

Meath is largely empty and yet all the trains are packed like sardines.


#3611

Obvious strawman is obvious.


#3612

Prices are definitely dropping again.

Who’d want to be a landlord in this country? It’s not worth it under 10% levels - you’re better off getting a second job, investing in something else or starting a business, etc.

I think properties at the bottom end of the market are holding up a little bit. Still a fair few FTBers in their 30s and 40s, not to mention investors seeking rent allowance. Even then, I wouldn’t wish chasing that on anyone. If you’re a small fry, it’s a mug’s game.


#3613

Given that interest rates are so low and that playing the stock exchange for the average punter is the same as walking into Paddy Power then there will always be people interested in property.


#3614

savings and bond rates are at record lows and stocks pay an average dividend of no more than 3% , property is providing a very good return right now in this country relatively speaking


#3615

add to that , irish people love property and will always buy it if they can


#3616

Are you speaking with experience of being a landlord :slight_smile:


#3617

Honohan to meet estate agents over lending rules
Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan has called in estate agents to discuss the property market, with the ­impact of lending restrictions on property sales expected to feature prominently.
It follows a call from Finance Minister Michael Noonan for the Central Bank to review the rules, which he said are preventing first-time buyers from purchasing starter homes.
The rules are also said to be contributing to spiralling rents. This is because younger ­people are unable to get a ­larger deposit together to take out a mortgage and are instead being forced to rent for longer than they expected.
However, others see the rules - which were introduced last February and demand larger deposits for mortgages and put restrictions on the amount that can be borrowed - as acting to put a brake on runaway house price inflation.


#3618
  • i.e. non VIs

#3619

The Times doing its best


#3620

Some interesting commentary in this article …

How Nama and Gerry Gannon unlocked Belcamp

Just before Christmas Eve, Gerry Gannon, the high-profile developer and member of the so-called Maple 10, lodged a planning application for a large development at Belcamp on the Malahide Road.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation, based on the size of the development (31,000sq m) and the prices being sought for comparable houses, indicates Gannon will realise about €55 million in sales at current prices. A back-of-the-envelope calculation, based on the size of the development (31,000sq m) and the prices being sought for comparable houses, indicates Gannon will realise about €55 million in sales at current prices. Construction costs will be somewhere in the region of €35 million based on published industry rates. Gannon Properties will obviously be able to avail of various economies of scale but the €35 million figure does not include site works, development levies and various other costs. This leaves Gannon Properties with a margin of €20 million which is almost completely wiped out by the cost of acquiring the site at approximately €19 million. This figure is arrived at by taking the €105 million that Gannon paid for the 81-hectare site in 2004 and assigning a pro-rata value of €19.5 million to the 15 hectares he will be building on.

This in a nutshell is the problem that confronts developers. If you are trying to recoup the cost of land you bought prior to the crash, then developing it is marginally profitable at best, given house prices at the moment. It would appear, however, that many other developers are either unwilling or unable to to write down the value of their sites to a level which is appropriate to the market value of the houses they want to build on them. They seem to be hanging on in the hope that prices can be forced up to a level where they can cover the original cost of their sites and make a profit. For this they need two things: people prepared to take on mortgages that are too big for their incomes, and banks willing to lend to them. As we know to our cost, there is no shortage of either.