Current Public Sentiment towards the Housing Market


#3621

“They seem to be hanging on in the hope that prices can be forced up to a level where they can cover the original cost of their sites and make a profit” …in other words peak prices.

Peak was caused by a perfect and prolonged storm …almost zero restrictions on credit, lower direct and indirect taxes, practically no unemployment etc etc …collectively know now as …“the madness”

if we lurge back to madness levels any time soon (say 2020 due to supply ) …then the volatility during the period 2000-2020 would be very extreme and unsustainable for what is meant to be a …long play, staid market…it’s residential property ffs …not Vegas …if prices keep rising back to those levels …its only matter of time til they fall back significantly …why do people assume the volatility will end when they want it to end …with prices on a high?


#3622

Last line of the article sums up the entire clusterfcuk of the “boom” years:

But one suspects it involves a write-down of the value of the site – which either directly or indirectly falls on the taxpayer’s shoulders.


#3623

That’s it in a nutshell.


#3624

Fair play to McManus for coming out with this

He’ll be in bother with the Bosses in the IT over sentiments like that!


#3625

“A back-of-the-envelope calculation, based on the size of the development (31,000sq m) and the prices being sought for comparable houses, indicates Gannon will realise about €55 million in sales at current prices. Construction costs will be somewhere in the region of €35 million based on published industry rates”

1129/sqm can’t be right. Sure, it costs 300k to build an apartment. :smiley:


#3626

Yeah, that seems a bit high alright. I find it very odd that Gannon or other developers would not have already been forced to write-down the value of the land in their accounts. Unless of course he bought it in his personal name. :confused:


#3627

Just noticed that since that SF seems to have posted about 20 ads on myhome for South Dublin homes overnight (from 2am onwards). Are these just old properties being posted as “new” or genuinely new ads? Seems like a bit of a desperate move on their part.


#3628

My feeling is that we are on the verge now of Bubble Popping time.
In about 6 months, at the end of summer, when people will be too tired, too lazy, too scared to do anything about it other than to commit the next generation of school leavers to exile abroad.

Digger out this morning at 6am tearing down an old shop for re-development in Killarney.
Various other Himac excavators here there and everywhere doing odd jobs, including agricultural work where I cannot see any economic worthwhile basis (aside perhaps for forrestry but what I’ve seen is for grazing).
Houses being thrown up.

What is going on?

We are peaking. Getting very close now to the top.


#3629

Deja-vue on bearish predictions :slight_smile:

For the avoidance of doubt there will be another crash but it is at least 3 years away.

The only glimmer of light for the bears is if “Uncle Simon” magics up 100k houses as against new ESB connections to meet the growing demand.


#3630

I used to be bearish but the reality of house hunting in Dublin over the last year has just smothered the bearish principles I used to have.
Judging from pre and post-Christmas viewings/bids around Killester/Raheny, I don’t see any steam escaping any time soon.
If anything, I believe things are ramping up owing to:

  • folk who’ve lost out in one bidding war, going into the next one with more gusto.
  • that lovely bit of goal-post moving in regard to deposits required for FTBs.
  • supply not not improving.

I check the property price register every week…recently some weeks results have made grim reading :frowning:


#3631

No bubble says ‘Industry leader’…and printed in the Irish Times no less. So thats that…time to sell up now !!!
The opening paragraphs are powerful and contain some bold statements/terminology which may make your blood boil!

A new property bubble will not happen, says industry leader
Opinion: Government policy cost first-time buyers while vulture funds profited
Pat Davitt, chief executive of IPAV, the Institute of Professional Auctioneers & Valuers
irishtimes.com/life-and-styl … -1.2966534

Bravo!


#3632

Loads of property related stories in today’s Indo including an opinion piece from Simon Coveney. Something stirring?
This is the editorial - property prices rising is good news.


#3633

The front page of The Corkman stirs
https://i.imgur.com/ApYziWY.jpg?1


#3634

from one of the biggest cheerleaders of the bubble, thought she had bought a house in 2007/2008?

D’arcy’s sidekick

independent.ie/style/celebri … 23829.html


#3635

Daily Mail screams


#3636

I wonder who these ‘experts’ are?


#3637


#3638

You’ll have to buy the paper to find out :slight_smile:
Front page mentions
Dr John McCartney is Director of Savills Ireland Research. Having previously worked as a Statistician for the CSO and as Head of Research for Lisney, he has a wealth of experience in both commercial and residential markets. savills.ie/blog/author/168690/John-McCartney


#3639

If 10,000 new units were built in the city centre, you’d see prices & rents shoot down.
20,000 would probably collapse the market.

The rise in prices is due to supply being at an all-time low, not demand at an all-time high.
I think it would surprise people to see how quickly this demand could be satisfied.


#3640

Even quicker, if the post Brexit EU decides that they want to deal with the Irish corporate tax rates and companies walk as a result.